The Climate Web
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Open in TheBrain
The Climate Web 10/5/2026
Organizing the Climate Web
Admin
Presentation Materials
Parents
Admin
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“Additionality fatigue” is not new
10,000 Years of Climate Stability
2009 Slide - Additionality is Paramount
2009 Slide - Markets are Growing Rapidly
2009 Slide - Press Coverage Follows Market Activitiy
2009 Slide - The Importance of Clear Objectives
2009 Slide - The importance of offsets
2009 Slide - The Voluntary Carbon Market
2019 Brannen_The Ends of the World
2021 Decision-Making Milestones vs. PPM
2021 Temperature, Emissions, Fuel Use
A 2011 global temperature assessment
A Long Conversation
A pragmatic due diligence
A Risk-Based Approach to Climate Change - MESD
A scoring perspective
A Short Story Introduction to the Brain Software
A Strange Commodity
Accessing the Premium Access Climate Web
Actionable Knowledge
Adaptation as Option - MESD
Adaptation Limits
Adaptation Limits - MESD
Additionality matters because there are SO many “anyway tons.”
AES Thames PowerPlant
Afghanistan Systems Diagram
Always Test Your Climate Assumptions
Andrea’s Story
Are Removals Better Than Avoidance?
Assessing Materiality
Assessing Materiality
Assessing Risk - MESD
Australia Exceedance Curves 2030 and 2092
Australia Exceedance Curves 2092
Back to the Future
Backus and 3.5 degrees
Because offsets justify emissions, they have to meet certain criteria
Best Business Practice 1 - MESD
Best Business Practice 2 - MESD
Best Practice Questions
Billion Dollar Events Increasing
Building Blocks of Climate Risk Management
Business Opposition
Business Policy Advocacy - MESD
Business Policy Opposition - MESD
Can We Live With a Changed World?
Can We Quantify Leakage?
Carbon Advisors
Carbon Contribution Claims
Carbon Footprint and Risk
Carbon Offset Additionality
Carbon offset chronology
Carbon Offset Critiques
Carbon Offset Critiques 1
Carbon Offset Critiques 2
Carbon Offset Permanence
Carbon Offset Timeline
Carbon Offsets
Carbon Offsets 4 - MESD
Carbon Offsets 1 - MESD
Carbon Offsets 2 - MESD
Carbon Offsets 3 - MESD
Carbon Offsets Background
Carbon Pricing
Carbon Pricing as Risk - MESD
Carbon Pricing for Paris Agreement
Carbon Pricing in Brief
Carbon Pricing Intro
Carbon Pricing Rules of Thumb
Cartoon
Catastrophic Climate Change?
CDR and Storage - MESD
Characterizing Long-Tail Risk - MESD
Check Your Assumptions
Climate Change Systems Thinking
Climate Change Unknown Unknowns - MESD
Climate Change Willful Blindness
Climate Chess
Climate Chess Climate Site
Climate chessboard
Climate Futures and Scenario Planning - MESD
Climate Litigation as Risk - MESD
Climate Modeling - MESD
Climate Risk Course Schedule
Climate Risk Reporting Institutions
Climate Risk Reporting Instruments
Climate Tipping Points - MESD
Collective action cartoon
Collective vs individual knowledge
Comparing TB
Course Audiences
Cover
Cover
Cover
Cover - Defining a Carbon Offset
Dashboards
Defining Additionality
Defining risk
Delivering Content from your Brain
Digging Into TheBrain and Its Capabilities
Digital Brain
Disruptive Activism - MESD
Disruptive Protest Risk
Don’t Buy RECs
EcoSecurities Scoring Tool
Einstein on Problem Solving
Emissions Unchecked
ESG 1.0 to 3.0
ESG CRitiques
ESG Defenses
ESG Gathering Steam
Exploring Adaptation
Exploring Bad News
Exploring Barriers to Climate Action
Exploring Carbon Offsets
Exploring Carbon Pricing
Exploring Climate Change as a Systems Problem
Exploring Climate Change as Planetary Experiment
Exploring Climate Communications
Exploring Climate Economics
Exploring Climate Futures
Exploring Climate Psychology
Exploring Climate Solutions
Exploring Good News
Exploring Sea Level Rise
Exploring the Climate Change Fingerprint
Exploring the Knowns and Unknowns
Exploring the Role of Individuals in Tackling Climate Change
Exporting Knowledge From Your Brain
External Checklist
External Checklist
fallacy 2
Filing cabinet
Final Points
Final Points
Financial Impact by Industry
Fixing Offsets
Forecasting Oil Prices
Framing Future Climate Change - MESD
Framing the Topic
Freeman Dyson and tree planting
From Round 1 to Round 2
From Sustainability to Climate Risk
Future Climate Outcomes - MESD
Futures and Foresight
Gaming Examples
Getting Information Into Your Brain
Getting on the Low Carbon Transition Path
Getting the Conversation Started
GHGs - THE Tradeable Pollutant
Global Temperature Anomalies
Graphic
Greenwashing/Greenwishing - MESD
Growing Investor and Regulatory Pressue
Have to accept gaming
Hope Is Not a Strategy
How Fast a Low Carbon Transition
How Long is Long Enough?
Human beings have trouble envisioning a different future
If only we knew what we know
IFRS Climate Disclosure Draft
IFRS Disclosure Standards
IFRS Information Requirements for Disclosure
Implementing Permanence
Implicit Carbon Pricing
Individual Action?
Internal Carbon Pricing
Internal Carbon Pricing - MESD
Internal Checklist
Internal Checklist
Introducing exceedance curves
Introducing Risk 1 - MESD
Introducing Risk 2 - MESD
Introducing Systemic Climate Risk - MESD
Introducing Systemic Risk - MESD
Introducing the Course
Introduction
Introduction
Invent the wheel
IPCC Probability Scales
It Didn’t Work
It really is a balancing act
It’s Hard to Recommend Specific Offsets
Key Components of ESG
Leakage Case Studies
Legos
Lesson Slide 1
Lessons Learned
Like 100 Experts
Literature review
Litigation Risk
Lloyds of London and Systemic Risk - MESD
Long Tail Risk
Long-tail risk
Looking for Change
Lots of Options
Lots of Pieces on the Board
Making a scoring system work
Malaysia 2030 and 2092
Malaysia Exceedance Curves 2092
Managing Systemic Climate Risk - MESD
Managing Tail Risk
Materiality Dashboard
Money talks
More complicated PKM
Nature Based Offsets
Nature Based Solutions
Nature-Based Solution - MESD
Nature-based solutions
No offset pool can be perfect
No way to reliably forecast additionality, leakage, or permanence
Nuclear Accident Systems View
Offset Alternatives
Offset Critiques Are Not New
Offset scoring
Offsets Got Taken for Granted
Offsets have been criticized throughout their history
Offsets Image
Offsets Venn Diagram
Only “additional” offsets can generate “additional” co-benefits
Organizing the Premium Access Climate Web via Types
Permanence Bottom Line
Permanence is a Core Criterion
Perpetual Motion
PKM Cartoon
PKM is Important in Today’s World
PKM Landscape
PKM with TheBrain Software
Policy as Solution
Potential offset supply in a world on track for a 2oC scenario
Potential offset supply in a world without adequate public policy
Potential Questions for Best Practice
Pre-Mortems
Premium Access Climate Web 100 experts
Premium Access Climate Web Conceptual
Premium Access Climate Web Dashbboards
Premium Access Climate Web Transition
Promo Video
Property Values
Questions to Ask Yourself
Re-Organizing Information in Your Brain
Rely on IPCC?
Rinse and Repeat
Rising Systemic Risk
Risk
Risk = Consequence x probability
Risk and Uncertainty
Risk as Accounting
Risk Assessment as Accounting Challenge
risk cover 2
Risk Disclosure in 2012
Risk or Opportunity
Round 2 Offset Demand
Round 2 Scenarios
Scenario Analysis Uncertainties
Scopes 1-3
Scoping Out the Topic of Carbon Pricing
Scoring Offsets
Scoring Range
Scoring System Slide 1
Scoring System Slide 2
Scoring System Slide 3
Sea Level Rise - MESD
Section 8 cover
Should You Offset?
Silver Buckshot
SLR Probabilities
SLR Uncertainties
So How Have We Done?
So Where Are We?
Societal vs. Business Risk - MESD
Societal vs. Business Risk - MESD
Solutions
Someone has to decide
Something for Everyone
Step 1 - Build the Team
Step 2 - Assess Your Skills
Step 3 - Start Playing
Streetlight
Structure of the Course
Sulfur Dioxide Trading and Power River Basin Coal
Summarizing the Points
Summing Up the Options for Carbon Pricing
Systemic Climate Risk - MESD
Systemic Risk
Systemic Risk
Systemic Risk Cover
Systems Thinking
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Tackling Wicked Problems
Take Away
Take away 3
Take Away 6 Willful Blindness
Takeaway 1
TakeAway 2
TakeAway 2.5 Policy vs Technical
TakeAway 4
Taking climate shortcuts
TCFD Disclosure Recommendations
TCFD Disclosure Recommendations
TCFD Financial Impact
TCFD Recommendations
Teaching From TheBrain
Team No-Urgency is Winning
Technical vs policy questions
The Additionality Lessons
The basic idea behind carbon offsets
The Biggest Question
The Carbon Offset Continuum
The CDM Process
The Changing Risk Environment
The consequences of failing to think about the future more aggressively can be severe.
The Fallacy of Division
The Future of Energy - MESD
The history of NBS
The IFRS Foundation
The implications of discounting
The Importance of Knowledge Management
The IPCC as Risk Assessment
The IPCC as Risk Assessment
The power of individuals
The Premium Access Climate Web
The Premium Access Climate Web
The problem with thresholds
The Record of Risk Disclosure
The Role for Actionable Knowledge - MESD
The Sins of ESG Management
The Solution?
The value of scenario planning
The very different timelines in play
There are two primary reasons that pre-mortems can help. Here’s the second.
There are two primary ways that premortems can help. Here’s the first.
Time to give up on additionality
Timelines Are Critical - MESD
Tipping Points
Tracking Materiality - MESD
Types of Climate Risk
Types of Leakage
Under-Estimating Long-Tail Risk - MESD
Unknown Unknowns
Up Next - Additionality Deeper Dive
Up Next - Defining Offsets
Up Next - Evaluation Literature
Up Next - Introducing Additionality
Up Next - Investing in Offsets
Up Next - Leakage
Up Next - Nature-Based Offsets
Up Next - Offset Alternatives
Up Next - Offset Critiques
Up Next - Offsets in the Premium Access Climate Web
Up Next - Permanence
Up Next - Round 2
Up Next - Scoring Offsets
Up Next - What Should We Shoot For
Up Next - Why Carbon Offsetes
Use Cases
Versatile
Visualizing Additionality
Voluntary vs. compliance offsets
Vulnerability Assessment
Ways to Access Your Brain
Ways to View and Navigate Your Brain
We just doing what might happen w SLR
We’re under-estimating risk
What Are Your Investment Goals?
What do Systems Thinkers Think?
What is Climate Risk?
What is ESG?
What is PKM And Why is it Different?
Where are we Headed?
Where Are We Headed?
Which Model is Right?
Who is Affected by Climate Risk?
Why Does Climate Risk Matter
Why is PKM So Important
Why It Will be So Hard
Why Permanence Isn’t Permanent
Why Risk Rises Rapidly
Willful blindness as spectacular water ballet
Wilson and O’Dell
WOPR - A Strange Game The Only Winning Move is No to Play
Worst case
Worst-Case Perspective? - MESD