E - Ocean Circulation

Parents

E - Ocean Impacts

Children

2. We don't have good direct measurements over the long term, but the circulation seems to have been weakening since the 1930s, and very different from the last 1,000 years
2003 The salinity of oceans is decreasing
2016 A slowing current should significantly impact local sea levels
2016 Climate modelling indeed suggests that doubling CO2 should slow the Atlantic circulation, and that surface temperatures are linked to that slowing
2016 Could significantly affect wind strengths and storm tracks
2016 Greenland ice melt is not accounted for in most models, leading to an under-estimate of slowing circulation
2016 In 2015 this part of the ocean was the coldest on record, notwithstanding a record warm year
2016 Slowing Atlantic current is moving North, replacing cold-water systems
2016 We are in a period of rapid temperature change all over the planet, with one big exception to the South of Iceland
2016 We know there is a critical salinity point at which the conveyor becomes unstable
2020 AMOC impacts on Atlantic oceanic temperature projection
2020 AMOC strength and global mean surface air temperature
2020 Arctic sea ice projections and AMOC impacts
2020 Atmosphere temperature and zonal wind projections and AMOC impacts
2020 Surface temperature and precipitation projections and AMOC impacts
7. No one is connecting the dots of climate change, including with respect to the AMOC
7. We know there is a risk of crossing the tipping point, but we can't predict it.
Graphic - Thermohaline circulation
Modified DICE for uncertain ocean THC collapse
Thermohaline circulation is one tipping element

Jumps

I - Thermohalinecirculation

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