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The Climate Web 10/5/2026
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Princeton University
Research Community on Communicating Uncertainty - Steering Committee
Oppenheimer, Michael
2019 Oppenheimer_Discerning Experts The Practices of Scientific Assessment for Environmental Policy
1 - The Need for Expert Judgment
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2019 Oppenheimer_Discerning Experts The Practices of Scientific Assessment for Environmental Policy
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A major Royal Society assessment of vaccinations led to changes in the law, allowing a personal beliefs exemption in 1898
An 1830 assessment of boiler explosisions led to some of the earliest regulation of industrial activity and private enterprise
As assessments evolved, the idea of "consensus reports" came into being
Assessments that limit themselves to concensus as settled knowledge can be severely misleading in failing to address cutting edge questions that may turn into big problems
Consensus was seen as helping identify which knowledge was ready to inform decision-making, so-called "decision-ready" knowledge
Even the appearance of expert disagreement can undermine public confidence in the experts and the science
Expert assessments date back to late 1800's.
Scientific assessment took a big step forward in the U.S. after 1945
The U.S. National Academy of Science and the National Research Council came into their own as assessment bodies after WWII