I - CommunicatingProbabilityandConfidence

Jumps

2010 IPCC_Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties
2012 Confidence in projecting direction and magnitude of some extremes grows as timeframe increases
The IPCC has established a confidence scale for discussing the number, quality, and agreement of lines of evidence
The IPCC has established a likelihood scale with which to characterize conclusions