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Scenario Planning Small, Medium, and Large

3.5 Small, Medium, and Large Scenario Planning

The scenario planning choices and options we've scoped out in previous pages will determine a lot about what your scenario planning process looks like (before getting to all of the specific variables you might include in your scenarios as discussed in Chapter 4).

One way to think about how these variables come together is as "small, medium, and large" scenario planning. Remember that scenario planning does not have to be overly complex and resource-intensive. In its "small" form, scenario planning might involve just a few key variables, qualitative rather than quantitative analysis, and a relatively simple storyline. It doesn't have to involve climate models or attempt to assess specific revenue impacts of a climate change scenario. Small scenario planning might make sense for smaller companies, but it might also be appropriate for a larger company using scenario planning to expose senior management to climate futures for the first time. Depending on management's reaction, the company might then move on to a more comprehensive look at climate scenarios and their implications at the facility level. This can be a more successful strategy than attempting to jump right to "large" scenario planning.

If you have access to Level 2 of the Guidebook, you can explore small, medium, and large scenario planning in more detail. For example, you can explore specific examples of small scenarios including:

Each scenario includes the story that describes the scenario and sets the stage for assessing the scenario's business implications.

For medium and large scenario planning, the full Guidebook points you to published scenario examples and lets you explore how those scenarios have handled various scenario planning choices identified in Chapter 3.