Testing the IPCC Hypothesis Over the Short Term

2011 Silver_The Signal and the Noise

In 2007, Armstrong challenged Al Gore to a bet. Armstrong posited that what he calls his “no-change” forecast— global temperatures would remain at their 2007 levels— would beat the IPCC’s forecast, which predicted continued warming. Gore never accepted the bet, but Armstrong proceeded to publish the results without him. The bet was to be resolved monthly— whichever forecast was closer to the actual temperatures for that month won the round. Through January 2012, Armstrong’s no-change forecast had prevailed over the IPCC’s forecast of slow-but-steady warming in twenty-nine months out of forty-seven.

Silver, Nate (2012-09-27). The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't (p. 381). Penguin Group. Kindle Edition.