Climate Impacts by Degree

Climate Change Degree by Degree

Climate change will be complicated, and forecasting the impacts of climate change is by no means easy. But there are lots of forecasts out there, and we’ve pulled some of them together here. They are organized on this page for easy reference, but without references. Many are drawn from 2020 Lynas_Our Final Warning Six Degrees of Climate Emergency

1^o C (Already Happening)

• 1oC - 157 million more people are exposed to dangerous heat waves today than in 2000
• 1oC - a one in thousands of years storm like Huricane Harvey is 3x as likely and 15% more intense
• 1oC - AMOC seems to have weakened about 15%, the most in the last 1,500 years
• 1oC - Antarctic ice melt has increased 6 fold to 250 billion tons per year in last 4 decades
• 1oC - Antarctic ice melt rates are up to two orders of magnitude greater than theories had predicted
• 1oC - babitats are shifting 17km northward and 11m vertically per decade according to IPCC
• 1oC - between 1972 and 2018 the area burned in CA every year is up 500%
• 1oC - birds and butterflies are lagging behind shifting climatic zones by 212 and 135 kms respectiveley
• 1oC - flash flooding of kind that hit Wuhan, China in 2016 now 10x as likely to occur
• 1oC - marine heatwave days are up by 50% since first half of 20th century
• 1oC - mountain glaciers are now losing 335 billion tons of ice per year
• 1oC - observed maximum permafrost thaw depths already exceed what models anticipated would occur with 3oC of warming
• 1oC - rainfall intensity is increasing in many parts of the world
• 1oC - since the 1970’s the Antarctic’s Pine Island Glacier has gone from releasing 6 billion tons of ice to 46 billion tons of ice
• 1oC - the frequency of high-tide flooding in Eastern U.S. has doubled in the last 30 years
• 1oC - the reproductive success of corals has declined globally by 80% since 1970’s
• 1oC - warmer waters may be causing corals to lose their ability to synchronize release of eggs and sperm over large distances

2^o C - Happening Soon?

• 2oC - “meandering” jet stream increases length of wet and hot weather across Europe
• 2oC - 2 billion people are exposed to extreme heat at least once every 20 years
• 2oC - 18% of insects in the Amazon lose 50% of their climatic range
• 2oC - 79 million people displaced by rising sea levels
• 2oC - 150% increase in land area and number of people affected by 5-day precipitation events
• 2oC - 163 million Europeans are exposed to unprecedented summer heat waves
• 2oC - 529,000 estimated additional deaths due to malnutrition worldwide by 2050
• 2oC - 10’s of millions of Chinese become exposed to dangerous summer heat waves for the first time
• 2oC - An ice-free Arctic almost certainly will occur in a 2oC world, leading go 6.6 million km2 of melted permafrost
• 2oC - An ice-free Arctic is almost certain
• 2oC - average European summer resembles Russian summer of 2010
• 2oC - average flow of rivers across Northern Hemisphere increases by as much as 50%
• 2oC - by 2050 all cities have shifted to the South by the equivalent of 1,000 km
• 2oC - by 2050 Seattle has the climate of San Francisco, London - Barcelona, Madrid - Marrakech
• 2oC - Central American rainforests are unlikely to survive
• 2oC - countries will hit peak seasonal meltwater from the Himalayas in the 2020’s, followed by a steep decline
• 2oC - EU likely to experience 30,000 heat related deaths per year by the 2030’s
• 2oC - food production falls by 99 kcal per person per day, resulting in greater malnutrition, and more than 500,000 climate-related deaths by 2050
• 2oC - Ganges river flow could increase by 30-110% as a result of precipitation and metlwater
• 2oC - Greenland ice sheet likely to irreversibly tip toward melting early on
• 2oC - hundreds of billions of tons of carbon could be released from permafrost thawing in coming centuries
• 2oC - IEA has estimated that by 2050 new air conditioning demand will be equivalent to generating capacity of US, EU, and Japan.
• 2oC - mammals, birds, and reptiles lose 1/3 of their climatic range by 2100
• 2oC - many African countries experience a 10% reduction in rainfall, and dry spells 15-19 days longer
• 2oC - more than 130 large cities are at risk of flooding from sea level rise by 2100, at annual cost of $1.4 trillion
• 2oC - mortality begins to increase exponentially at a heat index of 40oC (104oF)
• 2oC - overall global droughts increase by 20%, with 400 million people more exposed
• 2oC - probability of 100 year flood events in China increases by a factor of 2.4
• 2oC - Reduces 99th percentile VAR from $24 to $13 trillion
• 2oC - tens of billions of tons of carbon could be released by permafrost thawing by 2100, including methane
• 2oC - thawing permafrost by 2050 will have major costs and implications
• 2oC - the freezing level in the Peruvian Andes rises by 230 meters
• 2oC - would expose 48% of global population to deadly heat
• 2oC policies and technology advancement fundamentally disrupt centralized electric utilities
• 2oC policies create up to 30% VAR in oil sector
• 2oC policies create up to 65% VAR in auto sector
• 2oC policies disrupt cruise industry
• 2oC policies disrupt fashion industry
• 2oC policies disrupt fashion industry
• 2oC policies disrupt meat suppliers
• 2oC policies generate 80% increase in value for building efficiency sector
• 2oc Policies reduce the value of fossil fuels by $185 Trillion

3^o C - Likely Within Decades?

• 3oC - 1/3 of the global land area will exceed “deadly heat thresholds” 20 days a year
• 3oC - 2/3 of North American bird species are at risk of extinction
• 3oC - 136 UNESCO World Heritage Sites put at risk
• 3oC - 200 million people could be affected by flooding annually, with a qudrupuling of deaths to 20,000 people per year
• 3oC - 20-year return period heat waves will be happening every years in many regions including the U.S.
• 3oC - African generally faces a 20-50 fold increase in exposure to dangerous heat
• 3oC - Amazon fires smoke could be the global equivalent of a volcanic eruption
• 3oC - Arctic permafrost emissions could add .3 to .4 oC of warming to existing estimates
• 3oC - by 2050, the frequency of 100-year floods will have doubled across 40% of the globe, affecting 450 million people
• 3oC - by 2100, sea levels will be rising by more than they have risen during any point in human history
• 3oC - countries like Canada that were projected to benefit agriculturally in a 2oC world, experience yield losses
• 3oC - enough to melt the entire WAIS over the next 500 years
• 3oC - extreme heat waves currently expected 4 times a century in SE Asia will occur every other year
• 3oC - flood damage in the U.S. more than doubles
• 3oC - flooding damages rise by 1000% to more than a trillion dollars
• 3oC - food shortages are the highest probability cause of a societal collapse
• 3oC - global food production could be cut by half
• 3oC - hundreds of thousands of square kms in the Amazon become subject to wildfire
• 3oC - in CA, SLR could cost $150 billion and affect 600,000 people
• 3oC - invasive species like the tropical rabbitfish will do large-scale damage to kep forests as they move North
• 3oC - IPCC assesses a 50% chance of a meter of SLR by 2100, and a 5% chance of 1.77 meters
• 3oC - large parts of the world see a 500% increase in drought risk
• 3oC - major crops become unviable in Africa
• 3oC - more than 10 million people are exposed to “extreme risk” of heat stroke if working outside
• 3oC - more than half of insects, 44% of plants, and 20% of birds will lose more than half their climatic range
• 3oC - NYC could see 3 Hurricane Sandy flood events annually, which flooded 50 square miles of the city
• 3oC - over a billion people exceed the “workability” heat threshold
• 3oC - permafrost thawing could release 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100
• 3oC - rainfed agriculture will cease to exist in many parts of the world
• 3oC - subsistence farming becomes impossible in most of Africa and South Asia, affecting 1 billion people
• 3oC - takes us back in time about 3 million years
• 3oC - the average Mediterranean drought will last a decade or more
• 3oC - the fraction of the world population exposed to “deadly heat” will rise from 30% in a 1oC world to 53%
• 3oC - the massive East Antarctic ice sheet to melt over several thousand years
• 3oC - the water resources of a billion people are threatened
• 3oC - West African cities experience 145 dangerous heat days per year by the 2090’s
• 3oC - will generate 2-4 meters of SLR from Greenland over the next 1000 years
• 3oC - would cause the loss of 80% of glacier mass in many parts of the world, and 50% in Alaska

4^o C - Would Really Prefer to Avoid!

• 4oC - 1-2 meters of SLR are in the cards by 2100, affecting hundreds of millions of people
• 4oC - 3/4 of the boreal region will become crop-suitable
• 4oC - 60 million people are exposed to regular flooding, with 100-year events now happening every decade
• 4oC - 480 million people are subject to annual flooding by 2100
• 4oC - 100-year return period flood flows increase by 60-80% across key rivers
• 4oC - an additional 3 billion people face water stress
• 4oC - an energy-intensive human civilization as we know it is teetering
• 4oC - annual coastal damages in Europe go from $1 billion to between $100 billion and $1 trillion by 2100
• 4oC - at least 1/6 of all species will be driven extinct
• 4oC - billions of people are experiencing dangerous heat index conditions every year
• 4oC - by 2100, 25 U.S. cities of over 100,000 people face inundation
• 4oC - Category 6 super-storms will become a reality
• 4oC - China faces a 4x increase in cyclone damage in a 4oC world, and a 7x increase in a XoC world, or $65 billion per year.
• 4oC - crop losses could approach 80%
• 4oC - extreme precipitation across the U.S. may increase by 400%
• 4oC - global exposure to extreme heat increases by 30x, while in Africa it is 100x
• 4oC - heat-related deaths in the U.S. increase by 500%, and by 2,000% in Colombia
• 4oC - Jakarta Indonesia will experience dangerous heat 365 days a year
• 4oC - large densely populated areas become effectively unlivable
• 4oC - large parts of South Asia will be approaching wet bulb temperatures of 35oC
• 4oC - loss of the WAIS is inevitable (over centuries)
• 4oC - many US states will experience 8 weeks of 100oF temperatures
• 4oC - marine protected areas will be devastated
• 4oC - meltwater from the Himalayan ice pack will peak and then decline
• 4oC - more than half of the world’s land area is classed as “arid”
• 4oC - mosquito-borne diseases will decline in large parts of the world because it will be too hot for mosquitos
• 4oC - New Orleans would be flooded, along with large parts of NYC, Tampa, Sacramento, Boston, Honolulu, Tampa, and Long Beach, CA
• 4oC - only a third of the Himalayan ice pack remains. Today it supports the needs of a billion people
• 4oC - Portland OR has the climate of Sacramento, while Los Angeles shifts to Baja CA
• 4oC - Sierra Nevada snowpack is reduced by 80-90%
• 4oC - simulations suggest storms with a wind speed of 115 m per second, far higher than today’s record of 87 m per second.
• 4oC - the Alps have lost 90% of their ice cover, and the Himalayas 50%
• 4oC - the economic damages from flooding increase by 500%, in Europe equivalent to $100 billion per year
• 4oC - The estimated range of sea level rise impacts
• 4oC - the likelihood of simultaneous bread basket failures is very high
• 4oC - the probability of marine heat waves will increase by a factor of 40, compared to the factor of 2 witnessed today.
• 4oC - the probability of strong El Nino events in the Pacific could double
• 4oC - the risk of large fires in the Western U.S. and Florida rises by more than 500%
• 4oC - warming will be occurring at a rate 65 times greater than during the last inter-glacial

5^o C - Really Bad

• 5oC - 25% of Africa’s cities experience more than 200 days of dangerous heat per year, preventing outside work
• 5oC - 60oC temperatures are common across the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia
• 5oC - Arctic rainforests might re-establish themselves
• 5oC - by 2100, climatic zones have shifted 5,000 kms northward, or 170 m per day
• 5oC - concepts of morality are undermined
• 5oC - global food trade has ended
• 5oC - humans can still exist in quite a few parts of the world, but not 10 billion of them
• 5oC - most societies come to an end
• 5oC - sea could be rising by 2-4 cm per year by 2100
• 5oC - SLR by the end of the century could rise to 3m, with 800 million people flooded

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