Project Additionality Testing

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Offsets Master Class

Children

2009 Slide - Not All Offsets are Created Equal
2009 Slide - Offset Rules Will Determine Offset Outcomes
200X One additionality continuum example - coalmine methane
200X The additionality continuum - energy efficiency
200X The additionality continuum - nuclear energy
200X The additionality continuum - riparian reforestation
2014 Claassen_Additionality in U.S. Agricultural Conservation and Regulatory Offset Programs
2017 Anderson_Forest offsets partner climate change mitigation with conservation $$
2017 Ruseva_Additionality and permanence standards in Californias Forest Offset Protocol
Additionality “testing” is a misnomer
Additionality approaches used in various offset standards and programs
Additionality screening has to account for human behaviors, making it more uncertain
All additionality tests are trying to answer the same question
Different sectors perform very different when it comes to additionality thresholds
Different sectors perform very differently in terms of “offset confidence”
Discounting the number of offsets tells you nothing about their environmental credibility
Even tests for physical variables like pregnancy are not infallible
Forestry offset provide a lot of co-benefits
Gaming of offset rules will generally increase the likelihood of false positives getting into the offset pool
If you don’t think about false positives, you can’t draw any conclusions about offsets’ environmental integrity
Illustrative additionality tests
In designing most tests, you can know whether you got it right or wrong. Not so for additionality.
Many of the additionality “proxies” being used have not been empirically validated.
Many physical tests are first evaluated on how they balance false positives and false negatives
Measurement and monitoring cannot substitute for additionality screening
No offset pool can be perfect
Not all offset criteria should be judged equally, including for scoring purposes
Offsets come down to a confidence assessment
Someone has to decide the acceptable balance of false positives and false negatives
Statistical concept #1
Statistical concept #2
Statistical concept #3 - errors can't be fully eliminated
Statistical concept #4 - the approriate error balance is specific to the nature of the test
The Catch-22 of additionality screening
There is no universally right answer to additionality, but it is critical to the market
There is no way to “test” for additionality the way we “test” for pregnancy
Use of offsets in California's climate change policies
We should take advantage of the best possible information when it comes to additionality screening
What can we really say about additionality screening?
Without adequate additionality screening, offsets can’t maintain environmental integrity

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