2021/12 Global warming will make undocumented migration into US ‘increasingly dangerous’
The Increasing Peril of Desert Crossings Amid Climate Change
Recent research published in Science sheds light on the escalating dangers faced by undocumented migrants crossing the desert from Mexico to the United States. As climate change progresses, the study predicts that extreme heat and water scarcity will further exacerbate the already perilous trek, which has historically claimed thousands of lives.
The study focuses on the desert region between Nogales, Mexico, and Three Points, Arizona, a well-traveled route for migrants. It underscores how dehydration has emerged as a leading cause of mortality during these crossings. From 1998 to 2015, over 5,500 undocumented migrants died attempting to cross the US-Mexico border, with many fatalities occurring in the inhospitable Arizona desert. The authors of the study utilized extensive historical data on migrant deaths alongside a biophysical modeling approach to assess dehydration risk across different sections of the desert.
Through their analysis, the researchers found that individuals experience varying degrees of water loss depending on the specific terrain traversed. The study classified dehydration levels into categories ranging from severe to mild, identifying certain areas as particularly hazardous. During the hottest months of the year, particularly from May to September, the combination of high temperatures and physical exertion creates conditions that push human limits.
The research indicates that if current climate trends continue, migrants will face an increase in water loss of approximately one-third by the year 2050, even under moderate climate mitigation scenarios. This alarming projection raises the physiological cost of migration by 30-34%, affecting men, women, and children alike. For example, a 69 kg pregnant woman could lose nearly 11 liters of water in a single day of travel, while a 19 kg child could lose over 1 liter.
The findings have drawn attention from climate experts who emphasize the tragic implications of this research. They point out that while climate change intensifies the dangers of crossing, political decisions significantly influence why and how migrants undertake such risky journeys. The US government's border enforcement strategies, particularly the "Prevention Through Deterrence" policy implemented in 1994, have inadvertently pushed migrants into more treacherous crossings. By fortifying border checkpoints, authorities have directed migrants to less populated and more dangerous desert regions, where the likelihood of dehydration and death increases.
Interviews with migrants reveal the harrowing reality of these crossings. Individuals recount experiences of extreme thirst and hallucinations while traversing a landscape that offers little respite. The study's co-author, Dr. Reena Walker, emphasizes that the extreme climatic conditions in the Sonoran desert create a lethal environment, where the combination of high temperatures and physical exertion can lead to severe health outcomes.
As the authors modeled future scenarios under climate projections, they highlighted that their findings represent a "best-case scenario." They stress that their research does not account for chronic health outcomes resulting from extreme dehydration and stress, which could further complicate the already dire situation for migrants.
The intersection of climate change and migration poses complex challenges that extend beyond environmental factors. Experts agree that political contexts significantly shape the migration landscape, with decisions about border enforcement directly impacting the routes taken by migrants. As conditions become increasingly inhospitable due to climate change, the responsibility for the dangers faced by migrants is not solely a matter of climate but also reflects the consequences of political actions and policies.
In conclusion, this research brings to light the urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between climate change, migration, and policy decisions. As the environment continues to deteriorate, the risks faced by migrants will only increase, demanding attention from policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and society at large to address the root causes of migration and the dire circumstances under which many individuals are forced to travel.