E - Decisionmaking w Uncertainty

Parents

E - Decisionmaking Barriers

Children

2. Climate change a very different "uncertainty"
2003 Alberta Environment_Exceedance Curves Fact Sheet
2009 Choosing the right strategy in probability space
2010 High value sector water availability - municipalities, industry, energy
2010 Hydroelectric water availability
2010 In probability distributions, modes and means and uncertainty are important
2010 Mining water availability
2010 Normalized state by state water availability in 2050
2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty
2010 Sectors losing the most GDP due to drought in 1% EP simulation
2013 Pledges vs. contributions diverge dramatically with uncertainty
2013 Probability of catastrophe by treatment
6.1 Key Terms and Concepts
6.2 Single-Variable Analysis
6.3 Volatility and Variability Analysis
6.4 Bivariate Uncertainty Ellipses
6.5 Multivariate Analysis
6.6 Socioeconomic Impacts and Human Impairment
And at least five major sources of uncertainty commonly encountered in both
But we are profoundly bad at certain kinds of future-thinking
Climate change is about an epochal shift in our understanding of ourselves. We need a new sense of the human condition.
Contributions fall off as uncertainty increases
Data Consistency
Delta Ratio
E - Deep Uncertainty
E - Game Theory and Climate Change
E - Investors Need Public Policy
E - Probabilistic Decision-Making
Exceedance Probabilities
Future-thinking is evolutionarily built into us
Immeasurable uncertainty is radical unceratinty
MAD - Mutually Assured Delusion
Multivariate Applications
Our vulnerability to radical uncertainty is growing
Precipitation and Implications (Gamma Distribution)
Responding to fire risks: unlikely but we buy fire insurance
Risk Quantification - exceedance probability curves
Risk thinking works for any kind of future uncertainty
Scenario trees expresses combinations of uncertain risk factors
Scenarios are the building blocks of risk thinking
Second Order Uncertainty
Significant additional warming in the future, and uncertainty
Soil Moisture and Implications (Normal Distribution)
Standard Deviation Trends
Temperature and Implications (Normal Distribution)
We should pay attention to the tails of the distribution - including of expert opinion
What is best practice under uncertainty?
What is risk thinking?
Why uncertainty increases risk
Wind Speed and Implications (Weibull Distribution)

Jumps

I - DecisionmakingUnderUncertainty (Deep Dive)

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