Open in TheBrain

Part 1

<p>A&nbsp;Response&nbsp;to&nbsp;"Death&nbsp;of&nbsp;Environmentalism":&nbsp;Part&nbsp;I:&nbsp;The&nbsp;Problem </p><p>by&nbsp;Ken&nbsp;Ward </p><p>
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</p><p>When&nbsp;Michael&nbsp;Shellenberger&nbsp;and&nbsp;Ted&nbsp;Nordhaus&nbsp;left&nbsp;off&nbsp;in&nbsp;"The&nbsp;Death&nbsp;of&nbsp;Environmentalism,"&nbsp;

environmentalists&nbsp;were&nbsp;"head-down&nbsp;and&nbsp;knee-deep"&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;wide&nbsp;and&nbsp;wild&nbsp;river.&nbsp;We&nbsp;were&nbsp;invited&nbsp;to&nbsp;

clamber&nbsp;back&nbsp;onto&nbsp;the&nbsp;shore&nbsp;and&nbsp;envision&nbsp;a&nbsp;new&nbsp;path&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;crossing. </p><p>
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</p><p>Shellenberger&nbsp;&&nbsp;Nordhaus&nbsp;argue&nbsp;that&nbsp;an&nbsp;out-of-touch&nbsp;environmental&nbsp;movement&nbsp;has&nbsp;failed&nbsp;to&nbsp;

reshape&nbsp;its&nbsp;program&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;face&nbsp;of&nbsp;an&nbsp;shrewd&nbsp;challenge&nbsp;from&nbsp;the&nbsp;right&nbsp;wing.&nbsp;Our&nbsp;issues&nbsp;are&nbsp;wonky&nbsp;

and&nbsp;our&nbsp;stabs&nbsp;at&nbsp;reframing&nbsp;completely&nbsp;miss&nbsp;the&nbsp;target.&nbsp;Our&nbsp;leaders&nbsp;are&nbsp;mired&nbsp;in&nbsp;ancient&nbsp;history&nbsp;and&nbsp;

our&nbsp;policies&nbsp;are&nbsp;hopelessly&nbsp;inadequate&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;scale&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;challenges.&nbsp;S&N&nbsp;report&nbsp;that&nbsp;we&nbsp;are&nbsp;

losing&nbsp;our&nbsp;grip&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;imagination&nbsp;and&nbsp;allegiance&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;majority&nbsp;of&nbsp;Americans.&nbsp;They&nbsp;point&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;

New&nbsp;Apollo&nbsp;Alliance&nbsp;as&nbsp;a&nbsp;model&nbsp;new&nbsp;approach&nbsp;and,&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;startling&nbsp;leap&nbsp;of&nbsp;logic,&nbsp;propose&nbsp;to&nbsp;do&nbsp;away&nbsp;

with&nbsp;environmentalism. </p><p>
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</p><p>Maybe&nbsp;I&nbsp;am&nbsp;being&nbsp;too&nbsp;literal,&nbsp;but&nbsp;it&nbsp;is&nbsp;not&nbsp;clear&nbsp;to&nbsp;me&nbsp;how&nbsp;the&nbsp;"death"&nbsp;will&nbsp;occur.&nbsp;By&nbsp;murder?&nbsp;

Suicide?&nbsp;Benign&nbsp;neglect?&nbsp;Presumably,&nbsp;given&nbsp;their&nbsp;chief&nbsp;audience,&nbsp;S&N&nbsp;contemplate&nbsp;death-by-

denial&nbsp;of&nbsp;grants. </p><p>
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</p><p>There&nbsp;are&nbsp;no&nbsp;obvious&nbsp;roadblocks&nbsp;to&nbsp;New&nbsp;Apollo-type&nbsp;program.[1]&nbsp;If&nbsp;such&nbsp;work&nbsp;offers&nbsp;a&nbsp;more&nbsp;robust&nbsp;

political&nbsp;solution&nbsp;to&nbsp;climate&nbsp;change,&nbsp;it&nbsp;will&nbsp;certainly&nbsp;be&nbsp;emulated.&nbsp;It&nbsp;is&nbsp;hard&nbsp;to&nbsp;see&nbsp;how&nbsp;going&nbsp;this&nbsp;

route&nbsp;requires&nbsp;knocking&nbsp;off&nbsp;the&nbsp;existing&nbsp;green&nbsp;groups,&nbsp;nor&nbsp;what&nbsp;base&nbsp;of&nbsp;support&nbsp;would&nbsp;replace&nbsp;them.&nbsp;

What,&nbsp;for&nbsp;example,&nbsp;would&nbsp;draw&nbsp;the&nbsp;Steelworkers&nbsp;into&nbsp;the&nbsp;New&nbsp;Apollo&nbsp;Alliance&nbsp;if&nbsp;the&nbsp;Sierra&nbsp;Club&nbsp;

were&nbsp;disbanded?&nbsp;Although&nbsp;the&nbsp;language&nbsp;clear&nbsp;and&nbsp;emphatic,&nbsp;the&nbsp;call&nbsp;to&nbsp;dismantle&nbsp;environmental&nbsp;

organizations&nbsp;is&nbsp;mere&nbsp;rhetoric. </p><p>
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</p><p>S&N&nbsp;have&nbsp;done&nbsp;a&nbsp;useful&nbsp;service&nbsp;by&nbsp;opening&nbsp;a&nbsp;discussion&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;gulf&nbsp;between&nbsp;the&nbsp;current&nbsp;

environmental&nbsp;agenda&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;real&nbsp;level&nbsp;of&nbsp;political&nbsp;power&nbsp;and&nbsp;social&nbsp;change&nbsp;needed&nbsp;to&nbsp;avert&nbsp;

catastrophic&nbsp;climate&nbsp;change.&nbsp;Few&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;responses&nbsp;to&nbsp;"Death"&nbsp;challenge&nbsp;this&nbsp;assessment. </p><p>
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</p><p>Most&nbsp;replies&nbsp;take&nbsp;S&N&nbsp;to&nbsp;task&nbsp;for&nbsp;their&nbsp;narrow&nbsp;definition&nbsp;of&nbsp;environmentalism&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;simplistic&nbsp;

solution&nbsp;they&nbsp;offer;&nbsp;I&nbsp;thought&nbsp;Paul&nbsp;Watson&nbsp;was&nbsp;particularly&nbsp;eloquent&nbsp;on&nbsp;these&nbsp;points.&nbsp;However,&nbsp;no&nbsp;

real&nbsp;alternatives&nbsp;have&nbsp;been&nbsp;offered&nbsp;by&nbsp;the&nbsp;critics&nbsp;other&nbsp;than&nbsp;a&nbsp;defense&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;status-quo.&nbsp;Even&nbsp;

Watson&nbsp;concludes&nbsp;that&nbsp;we&nbsp;are&nbsp;screwed&nbsp;no&nbsp;matter&nbsp;what&nbsp;we&nbsp;do,&nbsp;an&nbsp;existential&nbsp;stance&nbsp;that&nbsp;is&nbsp;no&nbsp;

different&nbsp;in&nbsp;effect&nbsp;from&nbsp;"stay-the-course". </p><p>
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</p><p>If&nbsp;we&nbsp;accept&nbsp;the&nbsp;possibility&nbsp;of&nbsp;even&nbsp;moderate&nbsp;projections&nbsp;for&nbsp;climate&nbsp;change&nbsp;and&nbsp;honestly&nbsp;face&nbsp;the&nbsp;

scale&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;effort&nbsp;humankind&nbsp;must&nbsp;undertake&nbsp;to&nbsp;avert&nbsp;catastrophe,&nbsp;this&nbsp;single&nbsp;problem&nbsp;jumps&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;

top&nbsp;of&nbsp;any&nbsp;rational&nbsp;list&nbsp;of&nbsp;global&nbsp;priorities.&nbsp;It&nbsp;is&nbsp;an&nbsp;uber-issue&nbsp;for&nbsp;which&nbsp;we&nbsp;have&nbsp;no&nbsp;precedent&nbsp;other&nbsp;

than&nbsp;the&nbsp;threat&nbsp;of&nbsp;a&nbsp;global&nbsp;nuclear&nbsp;exchange&nbsp;during&nbsp;the&nbsp;height&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;cold&nbsp;war&nbsp;--&nbsp;not&nbsp;a&nbsp;particularly&nbsp;

comforting&nbsp;comparison. </p><p>
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</p><p>Even&nbsp;environmentalists&nbsp;have&nbsp;trouble&nbsp;accepting&nbsp;the&nbsp;implications&nbsp;of&nbsp;climate&nbsp;change,&nbsp;something&nbsp;I&nbsp;

learned&nbsp;giving&nbsp;talks&nbsp;on&nbsp;college&nbsp;campuses.&nbsp;In&nbsp;telling&nbsp;the&nbsp;climate-change&nbsp;story,&nbsp;I&nbsp;got&nbsp;used&nbsp;to&nbsp;seeing&nbsp;

audiences&nbsp;shift&nbsp;from&nbsp;agreement&nbsp;to&nbsp;doubt.&nbsp;This&nbsp;barely&nbsp;perceptible&nbsp;audience&nbsp;"click"&nbsp;usually&nbsp;occurred&nbsp;

when&nbsp;I&nbsp;mentioned&nbsp;the&nbsp;predictions&nbsp;for&nbsp;sea&nbsp;level&nbsp;rise&nbsp;should&nbsp;the&nbsp;West&nbsp;Antarctic&nbsp;Ice&nbsp;Shelf&nbsp;begin&nbsp;to&nbsp;

float&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;ocean.[2]&nbsp;The&nbsp;future&nbsp;toward&nbsp;which&nbsp;we&nbsp;now&nbsp;rush&nbsp;is&nbsp;unbelievable,&nbsp;even&nbsp;though&nbsp;the&nbsp;

evidence&nbsp;of&nbsp;retreating&nbsp;glaciers,&nbsp;massive&nbsp;ice&nbsp;break-ups&nbsp;at&nbsp;both&nbsp;poles,&nbsp;and&nbsp;a&nbsp;melting&nbsp;permafrost&nbsp;is&nbsp;

before&nbsp;our&nbsp;eyes. </p><p>
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</p><p>I&nbsp;am&nbsp;no&nbsp;exception.&nbsp;Our&nbsp;family&nbsp;moved&nbsp;to&nbsp;Massachusetts&nbsp;two&nbsp;years&nbsp;ago&nbsp;and&nbsp;we&nbsp;bought&nbsp;a&nbsp;house&nbsp;in&nbsp;

Hull,&nbsp;a&nbsp;seaside&nbsp;community.&nbsp;I&nbsp;did&nbsp;ask&nbsp;our&nbsp;realtor&nbsp;to&nbsp;check&nbsp;the&nbsp;elevation&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;properties&nbsp;we&nbsp;looked&nbsp;

at,&nbsp;but&nbsp;we&nbsp;ended&nbsp;up&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;house&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;tip&nbsp;of&nbsp;a&nbsp;peninsula&nbsp;which,&nbsp;although&nbsp;unlikely&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;underwater,&nbsp;

may&nbsp;well&nbsp;be&nbsp;an&nbsp;island&nbsp;in&nbsp;20&nbsp;or&nbsp;30&nbsp;years. </p><p>
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</p><p>It&nbsp;may&nbsp;not&nbsp;be&nbsp;within&nbsp;the&nbsp;realm&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;possible&nbsp;for&nbsp;individuals,&nbsp;even&nbsp;those&nbsp;with&nbsp;access&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;most&nbsp;

convincing&nbsp;data,&nbsp;to&nbsp;truly&nbsp;accept&nbsp;the&nbsp;scale&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;catastrophe&nbsp;we&nbsp;face,&nbsp;but&nbsp;it&nbsp;is&nbsp;possible&nbsp;for&nbsp;

institutions&nbsp;to&nbsp;do&nbsp;so.&nbsp;The&nbsp;insurance&nbsp;industry,&nbsp;military&nbsp;planning&nbsp;units,&nbsp;and&nbsp;The&nbsp;Netherlands&nbsp;have&nbsp;

accepted&nbsp;this&nbsp;reality. </p><p>
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</p><p>Homeowners&nbsp;near&nbsp;the&nbsp;coast&nbsp;can&nbsp;even&nbsp;track&nbsp;the&nbsp;exact&nbsp;rate&nbsp;at&nbsp;which&nbsp;the&nbsp;insurance&nbsp;industry&nbsp;is&nbsp;

adjusting&nbsp;its&nbsp;assessment&nbsp;of&nbsp;climate-change&nbsp;risk.&nbsp;When&nbsp;we&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;our&nbsp;home,&nbsp;the&nbsp;deductible&nbsp;for&nbsp;

wind&nbsp;damage&nbsp;was&nbsp;$300&nbsp;per&nbsp;year.&nbsp;A&nbsp;year&nbsp;later&nbsp;it&nbsp;rose&nbsp;to&nbsp;$2,000.&nbsp;This&nbsp;year&nbsp;it&nbsp;is&nbsp;set&nbsp;at&nbsp;$10,000&nbsp;per&nbsp;

event&nbsp;and&nbsp;is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to&nbsp;rise&nbsp;again&nbsp;next&nbsp;year.&nbsp;Statisticians&nbsp;somewhere&nbsp;are&nbsp;getting&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;truth&nbsp;at&nbsp;a&nbsp;

level&nbsp;utterly&nbsp;absent&nbsp;from&nbsp;the&nbsp;public&nbsp;conversation. </p><p>
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</p><p>I&nbsp;do&nbsp;not&nbsp;think&nbsp;this&nbsp;phenomenon&nbsp;can&nbsp;be&nbsp;understood&nbsp;completely&nbsp;in&nbsp;political&nbsp;terms&nbsp;or&nbsp;is&nbsp;due&nbsp;solely&nbsp;to&nbsp;

political&nbsp;influence&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;fossil-fuel&nbsp;lobby.&nbsp;Our&nbsp;civic&nbsp;failure&nbsp;to&nbsp;come&nbsp;to&nbsp;grips&nbsp;with&nbsp;the&nbsp;threat&nbsp;of&nbsp;

catastrophic&nbsp;climate&nbsp;change&nbsp;has&nbsp;root&nbsp;causes&nbsp;that&nbsp;are&nbsp;deeper&nbsp;than&nbsp;the&nbsp;pecuniary.&nbsp;The&nbsp;prospect&nbsp;is&nbsp;

awful,&nbsp;the&nbsp;evidence&nbsp;easy&nbsp;to&nbsp;overlook,&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;solutions&nbsp;overwhelming&nbsp;and&nbsp;uncomfortable. </p><p>
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</p><p>To&nbsp;understand&nbsp;where&nbsp;we&nbsp;are&nbsp;and&nbsp;what&nbsp;we&nbsp;might&nbsp;do,&nbsp;there&nbsp;are&nbsp;few&nbsp;guides&nbsp;to&nbsp;turn&nbsp;to.&nbsp;Barbara&nbsp;

Tuchman&nbsp;is&nbsp;one&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;few&nbsp;who&nbsp;have&nbsp;even&nbsp;addressed&nbsp;the&nbsp;problem&nbsp;we&nbsp;face.&nbsp;She&nbsp;wrote: </p><p>
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</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A&nbsp;phenomenon&nbsp;noticeable&nbsp;throughout&nbsp;history,&nbsp;regardless&nbsp;of&nbsp;place&nbsp;or&nbsp;period&nbsp;is&nbsp;the&nbsp;pursuit&nbsp;by&nbsp;

government&nbsp;of&nbsp;policies&nbsp;contrary&nbsp;to&nbsp;their&nbsp;own&nbsp;interests.&nbsp;Mankind&nbsp;it&nbsp;seems,&nbsp;makes&nbsp;a&nbsp;poorer&nbsp;

performance&nbsp;of&nbsp;government&nbsp;than&nbsp;of&nbsp;almost&nbsp;any&nbsp;other&nbsp;human&nbsp;activity.&nbsp;In&nbsp;this&nbsp;sphere,&nbsp;wisdom,&nbsp;which&nbsp;

may&nbsp;be&nbsp;defined&nbsp;as&nbsp;the&nbsp;exercise&nbsp;of&nbsp;judgment&nbsp;acting&nbsp;on&nbsp;experience,&nbsp;common&nbsp;sense&nbsp;and&nbsp;available&nbsp;

information,&nbsp;is&nbsp;less&nbsp;operative&nbsp;and&nbsp;more&nbsp;frustrated&nbsp;than&nbsp;it&nbsp;should&nbsp;be. </p><p>
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</p><p>The&nbsp;opposite&nbsp;of&nbsp;wisdom,&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;Tuchman,&nbsp;is&nbsp;folly.[3] </p><p>
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</p><p>It&nbsp;is&nbsp;folly&nbsp;on&nbsp;a&nbsp;global&nbsp;scale&nbsp;that&nbsp;we&nbsp;must&nbsp;prevent&nbsp;and&nbsp;it&nbsp;is&nbsp;no&nbsp;wonder&nbsp;that&nbsp;we&nbsp;sometimes&nbsp;quail&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;

face&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;prospect. </p><p>
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</p><p>I&nbsp;share&nbsp;with&nbsp;S&N&nbsp;the&nbsp;view&nbsp;that&nbsp;our&nbsp;movement&nbsp;is&nbsp;failing&nbsp;to&nbsp;truly&nbsp;come&nbsp;to&nbsp;grips&nbsp;with&nbsp;a&nbsp;threat&nbsp;that,&nbsp;

ironically,&nbsp;we&nbsp;were&nbsp;the&nbsp;first&nbsp;to&nbsp;identify.&nbsp;I&nbsp;admire&nbsp;their&nbsp;urgency&nbsp;and&nbsp;agree&nbsp;that&nbsp;the&nbsp;circumstances&nbsp;do&nbsp;

not&nbsp;permit&nbsp;a&nbsp;gradual&nbsp;evolution&nbsp;of&nbsp;praxis.&nbsp;The&nbsp;danger&nbsp;is&nbsp;unquestioned&nbsp;and&nbsp;actions&nbsp;we&nbsp;must&nbsp;take&nbsp;

should&nbsp;be&nbsp;swift,&nbsp;focused,&nbsp;and&nbsp;massive.&nbsp;Having&nbsp;traveled&nbsp;this&nbsp;far&nbsp;in&nbsp;agreement&nbsp;with&nbsp;S&N,&nbsp;I&nbsp;must&nbsp;then&nbsp;

part&nbsp;ways.&nbsp;If&nbsp;the&nbsp;future&nbsp;toward&nbsp;which&nbsp;we&nbsp;rush&nbsp;is&nbsp;folly,&nbsp;their&nbsp;solution&nbsp;is&nbsp;foolishness. </p><p>
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</p><p>In&nbsp;the&nbsp;next&nbsp;sections&nbsp;I&nbsp;expand&nbsp;on&nbsp;this&nbsp;critical&nbsp;view,&nbsp;list&nbsp;factors&nbsp;not&nbsp;mentioned&nbsp;by&nbsp;S&N&nbsp;which&nbsp;

contribute&nbsp;to&nbsp;our&nbsp;hobbled&nbsp;state,&nbsp;and&nbsp;describe&nbsp;a&nbsp;campaign&nbsp;which&nbsp;might&nbsp;have&nbsp;a&nbsp;shot&nbsp;at&nbsp;affecting&nbsp;

climate&nbsp;change&nbsp;policy&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;U.S. </p><p>
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</p><p>Ken&nbsp;Ward&nbsp;has&nbsp;25&nbsp;years&nbsp;leadership&nbsp;and&nbsp;campaigning&nbsp;experience&nbsp;with&nbsp;the&nbsp;New&nbsp;Jersey&nbsp;Public&nbsp;

Interest&nbsp;Research&nbsp;Group,&nbsp;Greenpeace&nbsp;USA,&nbsp;Public&nbsp;Interest&nbsp;GRFX,&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;National&nbsp;Environmental&nbsp;

Law&nbsp;Center.&nbsp;He&nbsp;was&nbsp;a&nbsp;cofounder&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;Fund&nbsp;for&nbsp;Public&nbsp;Interest&nbsp;Research,&nbsp;Environmental&nbsp;

Endowment&nbsp;for&nbsp;New&nbsp;Jersey,&nbsp;and&nbsp;Green&nbsp;Corps. </p><p>
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</p><p>[1]&nbsp;The&nbsp;New&nbsp;Apollo&nbsp;Project&nbsp;is&nbsp;presented&nbsp;as&nbsp;offering&nbsp;"big&nbsp;solutions&nbsp;to&nbsp;frame&nbsp;the&nbsp;problem."&nbsp;The&nbsp;"big"&nbsp;

aspect&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;New&nbsp;Apollo&nbsp;approach&nbsp;is&nbsp;the&nbsp;size&nbsp;of&nbsp;government&nbsp;funding&nbsp;envisioned.&nbsp;The&nbsp;policies&nbsp;listed&nbsp;

in&nbsp;the&nbsp;New&nbsp;Apollo&nbsp;Agenda&nbsp;are&nbsp;similar&nbsp;to&nbsp;several&nbsp;existing&nbsp;energy&nbsp;independence&nbsp;agendas.&nbsp;As&nbsp;S&N&nbsp;

acknowledge,&nbsp;the&nbsp;New&nbsp;Apollo&nbsp;approach&nbsp;has&nbsp;yet&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;tested&nbsp;in&nbsp;any&nbsp;political&nbsp;arena. </p><p>
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</p><p>[2]&nbsp;"If&nbsp;Earth's&nbsp;climate&nbsp;continues&nbsp;to&nbsp;warm,&nbsp;then&nbsp;the&nbsp;volume&nbsp;of&nbsp;present-day&nbsp;ice&nbsp;sheets&nbsp;will&nbsp;decrease.&nbsp;

Melting&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;West&nbsp;Antarctic&nbsp;ice&nbsp;sheet&nbsp;would&nbsp;result&nbsp;in&nbsp;a&nbsp;sea-level&nbsp;rise&nbsp;of&nbsp;about&nbsp;8&nbsp;meters.&nbsp;The&nbsp;West&nbsp;

Antarctic&nbsp;ice&nbsp;sheet&nbsp;is&nbsp;especially&nbsp;vulnerable,&nbsp;because&nbsp;much&nbsp;of&nbsp;it&nbsp;is&nbsp;grounded&nbsp;below&nbsp;sea&nbsp;level.&nbsp;Small&nbsp;

changes&nbsp;in&nbsp;global&nbsp;sea&nbsp;level&nbsp;or&nbsp;a&nbsp;rise&nbsp;in&nbsp;ocean&nbsp;temperatures&nbsp;could&nbsp;cause&nbsp;a&nbsp;breakup&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;two&nbsp;

buttressing&nbsp;ice&nbsp;shelves.&nbsp;The&nbsp;resulting&nbsp;surge&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;West&nbsp;Antarctic&nbsp;ice&nbsp;sheet&nbsp;would&nbsp;lead&nbsp;to&nbsp;a&nbsp;rapid&nbsp;

rise&nbsp;in&nbsp;global&nbsp;sea&nbsp;level."&nbsp;--&nbsp;US&nbsp;Geological&nbsp;Survey </p><p>
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</p><p>[3]&nbsp;To&nbsp;qualify&nbsp;as&nbsp;folly,&nbsp;a&nbsp;course&nbsp;of&nbsp;action&nbsp;must&nbsp;meet&nbsp;three&nbsp;criteria.&nbsp;It&nbsp;must&nbsp;be&nbsp;perceived&nbsp;as&nbsp;

counterproductive&nbsp;in&nbsp;its&nbsp;own&nbsp;time,&nbsp;a&nbsp;feasible&nbsp;alternative&nbsp;course&nbsp;of&nbsp;action&nbsp;must&nbsp;be&nbsp;available,&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;

policy&nbsp;must&nbsp;persist&nbsp;beyond&nbsp;any&nbsp;one&nbsp;political&nbsp;term&nbsp;or&nbsp;lifetime.&nbsp;--&nbsp;The&nbsp;March&nbsp;of&nbsp;Folly,&nbsp;Barbara&nbsp;

Tuchman. </p><p> </p>