Tentative Bottom Line Conclusions

Based on the materials summarized in this Mini-Brain, and our own work on this topic over the last few decades, we would summarize the "forestry and climate change mitigation" conversation as follows:

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<li>Consideration of reforestation and biomass management generally as a "buying time" option for tackling climate change is more than 40 years old.</li>

</ul>

<ul>

<li>Concerns over tropical deforestation date to the same timeframe, and international efforts to tackle tropical deforestation date back to the Tropical Forestry Action Plan in 1985. But rapid deforestation has continued.</li>

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<ul>

<li>Estimates of the extent to which forests and changed land uses could sequester carbon to mitigate climate change, and the extent to which tropical deforestation could be slowed to the same end, date back almost 30 years. They almost universally suggest that the mitigation potential is large. The estimated costs of achieving that potential, however, have risen dramatically over time. First assessed as pennies/ton, then a few dollars per ton, many estimates today include cost curves ranging to $100/ton. </li>

</ul>

<ul>

<li>While examples of success in forest restoration and avoided deforestation exist, and while forestry has been an important focus of first voluntary carbon markets, and more recently performance-based efforts to slow tropical deforestation by Norway and other countries, there is very little evidence of any widespread impact, and little understanding of whether and how how larger-scale mitigation potentials could be achieved. </li>

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<ul>

<li>The "permanence risk" of forestry-based mitigation initiatives is being demonstrated in Brazil, where the new government has threatened to accelerate development in forested areas, and deforestation rates appear to already be increasing. </li>

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<ul>

<li>Studies looking at how climate change itself will impact the world's forests date back at least 20 years. There is enormous uncertainty about how climate change impacts on forests will play out, even from the climate change that is a ready in the pipeline. It is already clear, however, that major efforts will be required to just to protect forest-based carbon stocks rising risks of drought, fire, and pests.</li>

</ul>

<ul>

<li>The bottom line appear to be that the degree to which forestry can or will contribute to climate change mitigation remains at best an open question. Like so many other climate change mitigation options, the "potential" has been much easier to quantify than to achieve. What's particularly problematic for forestry and land-use options is that climate change itself will be increasingly disruptive to those sector over time, complicating the situation greatly.</li>

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If you have a major interest in this topic and would like to take advantage of the "forestry mitigation wisdom" that has accumulated over the last 30+ years, rather than encouraging more reinventing of wheels, the Climate Web can help. Contact the Climatographers to discuss how.