The CCRA Process
<p>2012 DEFRA_Climate Change Risk Assessment for the Energy Sector</p>
<p>
The CCRA methodology is novel in that it has compared over 100 risks (prioritised from
an initial list of over 700) from a number of disparate sectors based on the magnitude
of the consequences and confidence in the evidence base. A key strength of the
analysis is the use of a consistent method and set of climate projections to look at
current and future threats and opportunities.
The CCRA methodology has been developed through a number of stages involving
expert peer review. The approach developed is a tractable, repeatable methodology
that is not dependent on changes in long term plans between the 5 year cycles of the
CCRA.
The results, with the exception of population growth where this is relevant, do not
include societal change in assessing future risks, either from non-climate related
change, for example economic growth, or developments in new technologies; or
future responses to climate risks such as future Government policies or private
adaptation investment plans.
Excluding these factors from the analysis provides a more robust ‘baseline’ against
which the effects of different plans and policies can be more easily assessed.
However, when utilising the outputs of the CCRA, it is essential to consider that
Government and key organisations are already taking action in many areas to minimise
climate change risks and these interventions need to be considered when assessing
where further action may be best directed or needed.
Initially, eleven ‘sectors’ were chosen from which to gather evidence: Agriculture;
Biodiversity & Ecosystem Services; Built Environment; Business, Industry & Services;
Energy; Forestry; Floods & Coastal Erosion; Health; Marine & Fisheries; Transport; and
Water.
A review was undertaken to identify the range of climate risks within each sector. The
review was followed by a selection process that included sector workshops to identify
the most important risks (threats or opportunities) within the sector. Approximately
10% of the total number of risks across all sectors was selected for more detailed
consideration and analysis.
The risk assessment used UKCP09 climate projections to assess future changes to
sector risks. Impacts were normally analysed using single climate variables, for
example temperature.
A final Evidence Report draws together information from the 11 sectors (as well as
other evidence streams) to provide an overview of risk from climate change to the UK.
Neither this report nor the Evidence Report aims to provide an in depth, quantitative
analysis of risk within any particular ‘sector’. Where detailed analysis is presented
using large national or regional datasets, the objective is solely to build a consistent
picture of risk for the UK and allow for some comparison between disparate risks and
regional/national differences.</p>