Knowable vs. not knowable

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The impact on outrage of “unknowability” – uncertainty and expert disagreement – is complicated. If outrage is already pretty high, unknowability makes it higher: “How dare they expose us to risks they don’t even understand themselves?” But if outrage is low, unknowability is a good excuse for inaction: “We’ll start worrying after the experts get the science straight.” In the early years, the science behind global warming was hotly debated, and the debate strengthened the fervor of both sides. The argument wasn’t over how sure we were; it was, rightly, over whether we should wait to be sure before taking precautions. Though there are still scientific dissenters, the consensus that global warming is real and serious is a lot stronger today. Opponents still argue that we shouldn’t take costly and disruptive precautions until we’re sure. But the focus for the movement has shifted from “yes we should” to “we <em>are</em> sure.” Paradoxically, this may actually make it harder for the movement to sustain the outrage.</p>