Increased Wildfire Frequency and Strength
In a warming climate one would tend to expect more wildfires, and wildfires are one of the most commonly discussed elements of the climate fingerprint. The situation is complicated by the fact that wildfire severity is often measured in economic damage, which is more of a function of where we’re building new houses than it is changes in fire regimes themselves. Some observers argue that wildfires do not actually demonstrate a clear climate change signal.
There are many ways to try and measure changing fire risk. One is shown in the figure below, illustrating the the fire season in Alaska is starting earlier and ending later over time. All things being equal, that should result in more fires.
Another way to look at fire risk is the expected change in average area burned per 1oC of average temperature change. The image below shows how dramatic the potential changes will be in the western U.S. as % of expected change in area burned per 1oC (where average temperatures have already changed by more than 1oC from historical levels). Extracted from "2010 NRC Climate Stabilization Targets" (available in the Climate Web).
Digging Deeper
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