Superintelligence is Beyond Reach

AI has no creative capacity. It cannot “think” of anything new, unlike humans who create new formulas and works of art routinely. AI is not “intelligent” or creative. It’s just fast.

In a recent experiment, a supercomputer and a group of first grade children were given a ruler, a teapot and a stove and asked to draw a circle. The computer “knew” that the ruler was a draftsman’s tool not unlike a compass and promptly tried to draw a circle with a ruler. It failed. The children glanced at the teapot, saw that the bottom was round and used it to trace perfect circles.

This is an example of abductive logic (also called intuition or common sense) at work, which children have, and computers do not. The idea of children outperforming a supercomputer might cause investors to ask just what they are getting for their $400 billion (and counting).

In sum, AI will never be superintelligent, expenditures have hit the wall of diminishing returns, AI offers no creativity at all (just fast searches), and children can outperform the fastest machines when the task calls for intuition.