Issue 7

A Humble Request (Not For Money!)

It's natural that readers are much more likely to react to content accessed through this Newsletter, than to the Newsletter itself. BUT, that means fewer reactions, fewer reposts, and fewer comments, causing LinkedIn’s algorithms to limit its distribution. Unless we can convince the algorithm otherwise, the Newsletter won't survive. PLEASE consider taking half a second to react to posts promoting the Newsletter, half a second to repost those same posts (with or without any commentary of your own), or go wild and spend a few seconds leaving a short comment. THANK YOU! Now back to our normally scheduled Newsletter programming.

2024 - A Bold Climate Year

From a climate change perspective 2025 has gotten underway with a bang, generating a lot of LinkedIn posts along the way! Numerous posts like 202501 Diana Urge-Vorsatz_2024 Was a Milestone Climate Year discussing that 2024 was a record year in terms of average global temperature, and the first year to come in above 1.5^o C (not to be confused with exceeding the global 1.5^o “target,” which is based on a 30-year rolling average). After reading 202502 Joe Romm_Berkeley Earth’s Must Read Review of 2024, we decided that instead of pointing you to a long series of posts with graphics, however, we would consolidate the best 2024 graphics on a single page in Your Climate Toolbox. There are 17 graphics on the page so far (along with hopefully helpful interpretations) , and we’ll add more as we come across them. You can check the Visualizing 2024 in Climate Change page at any time via toolbox2024.climatographer.com. And feel free to suggest additional graphics!

We will point you to a video not included on our page: 202501 Roberta Boscolo_Visualizing 800,000 Years of CO2. It’s an impressive visualization, but of course it’s really not that different from the analogous videos that have appeared every year for the last 20 years. Is there any reason this year’s version will would make a difference?

And of course lots of posts regarding the tragic fires in Los Angeles. Most posts accept that climate change most likely played a role in the fires, with notable exceptions such as 202502 Michael Shellberger_Factors Others Than Climate Change Explain the Fires in Los Angeles. And while it’s easy to ask “will these fires end up making the difference in the public climate conversation?,” see 202502 Erin Remblance_Why LA’s Fires Won’t be a Wake-Up Call for the likely answer.

There has also been a lot of discussion of climate change’s role in the natural disasters of 2024, including Munich Re’s: 2025/01 Climate Change is Showing Its Claws - The world is getting hotter, resulting in severe hurricanes, thunderstorms and floods and 202502 Munich Re_2024 Was the Third Costliest Year for Insurers, not to mention 202502 Bent Flyvbjerg_Climate Disasters and Regression to the Tail. And 202451_Roberta Boscolo_Every Atlantic Hurricane of 2024 Was Strengthened by Climate Change. That said, in the spirit of challenging confirmation bias, check out Roger Pielke’s 2025/01 Climate Change is Showing Its Claws? Disaster Losses in 2024 Tell a Very Different Story, which describes Zurich Re’s assessment of 2024 as being fundamentally different from Munich Re’s when it comes to the influence of climate change.

A Shift in the Climate Conversation?

As 2025 gets underway, are there other significant takeaways from 2024 that can be extracted from the flood of LinkedIn climate change conversations? We think so, while recognizing that there won’t be universal agreement on our suggested takeaways.

• We see a growing recognition that the problem of climate change is worse than generally assumed. As noted in Zeke Hausfather’s post, for example, the pace of planetary warming is increasing, even though we can’t know for sure whether it is a long-term trend or a short-term blip. During 2024 there was also a never-ending series of new reports and papers suggesting that the AMOC ocean current is at risk of significantly slowing or stopping. Scientist Stefan Rahmstorf has led the AMOC charge, concluding in this 2024 interview that such a collapse is no longer seen as a low probability outcome, notwithstanding its potentially catastrophic consequences. There has also been a lot of discussion of other climate change tipping points, including the possibility that large parts of the Amazon rainforest may already be beginning a transition to savannah. This was the subject of an excellent recent episode of Nate Hagen’s The Great Simplification podcast with Brazilian scientist Carlos Nobre, a summary of which you can access here. Another end-of-year podcast episode well worth listening is Cleaning Up’s episode: 202412 CU190_Have We Lost The Climate Argument? w Lord Adair Turner. Additional posts relevant to this general theme of worsening climate change include 202501 Charlie Gardner_Introducing Survival Science and Its Implications, and 202502 Alex Wilks_The Pending Insurance Crisis, and 202501 Roberta Boscolo_The Earth is Becoming More Arid, and 202502 Laurie Laybourn_The Regulatory “Doom Loop” Mandates Aggressive Adaptation, and 202501 Kasper Benjamin Reimer Bjorksov_Nature Threatens to Destabilize Our Financial Systems

• We see a growing recognition that “theories of change” that have prevailed up to this point are simply not delivering. Ken Pucker’s posts, for example, including his recent 202501 Ken Pucker_The Virtue Signaling of Corporate Climate Commitments have documented the steady retreat from the idea that voluntary corporate commitments would add up to climate change mitigation. A number of reasons have been identified, as per 202502 Stacy Smedley_Corporate Challenges in Achieving Science-Based Climate Action. 202502 Raz Godelnik_Interpreting Unilever’s Recent Sustainability Announcement does point out that interpreting corporate announcements in this area can be tricky, but the bottom line seems to be a growing recognition that without the necessary policies and rules, it’s unrealistic to expect private sector companies to substitute stakeholder and societal interests for shareholder interests. See also 202502 Aaron Vermeulen_Why GFANZ members will no longer have net zero requirements, and 202502 Gregor Dorfleitner_High ESG Scores Are More Likely to Signal Greenwashing, and 202502 Claire Osborne_Hope is Not a Career Strategy. To the extent the “corporate voluntary action” theory of change is collapsing, it will almost certainly have significant implications for related topics like voluntary carbon markets, even as 202502 Jen Stebbing_Biodiversity Credits Gaining Traction.

• Even countries seem to be retreating from their theory of change. 202501 Joe Romm_Biden Weakens Hydrogen Subsidy Rules is one example, not to mention what will start to happen on January 20th when a new administration takes office (although there is always the search for a silver lining as per 202501 Toby Heaps_How Trump Could Take Down Barriers to the Low Carbon Transition. And lots of LinkedIn posts suggesting that even the EU is retreating from key climate obligations.

• There are other theories of change that are still in play. Climate change litigation being one of them 202502 Loes van Dijk_A Mixed Bag for Climate Litigation. Another being that central banks could be playing a much larger role in guiding the low carbon transition, e.g. 202501 Darius Nassiry_Central Banks Can Use “Credit Guidance” to Steer the Low Carbon Transition And yet another being that at some point climate change will cause the public to revolt against prevailing power structures. Leading proponents of this view include Dana Fisher and Joseph Gelfer. Dana forecasts that things will get worse before they get better: 202501 Dana Fisher_The Growing Radicalization AND Repression of Climate Activists, supported by 202501 Zoe Cohen_Doctor Sent to Prison for Protesting Climate Change, and Dana has been particularly active on the podcast circuit recently, including 202412 Wicked Problems_The Apocalyptic Optimist Dana R. Fisher, and Planet Critical’s episode 202412 PC_Mass Mobilization with Dana Fisher. But also check out Joseph Gelfer’s 10 Tips For Climate Populism video.

• We also see a growing recognition that not only is climate change not the only problem we’ll be grappling with, but that these other problems could throw a real wrench into the prospects of an orderly low carbon transition. Ezra Klein’s pessimistic 2025/01 Now Is the Time of Monsters - The Old World is Breaking Down. A New One is Breaking Through, is notable in this regard. As is another episode of Nate Hagen’s The Great Simplification Podcast, 202412 TGS_The Baby Bust How The Toxicity Crisis Could Cause the Next Economic Crash with Jeremy Grantham.

• For a particularly thought-provoking summary of what this all adds up to, check out 2025/01 From Idealism to Realism - Climate Scientist Mike Hulme Shares His Journey. Mike concludes that climate politics has “trumped” climate science (our pun not his), that what we collectively have to look forward to is gradual but insufficient decarbonization, substantial warming, and a lot of climate losers along with some winners. In other words, the most likely final score in the competition between Team Climate No-Urgency and Team Climate Urgency? 1 - 0 . Or check out The Breakdown’s recent podcast with Andreas Malm , 202412 TBD15_ After Overshoot based on his recent book How the World Surrendered to Climate Breakdown Or check out the post 202501 Ingmar Rentzhog_If the World Is Spinning Out of Control, Then What? And if you’re looking for options to escape the coming chaos, check out 202502 Nicole Reese_Where to Buy Land Amid Climate Chaos.

So what do you think? Did key climate conversations shift in 2024? Will that shift carry over into the conversations that dominate LinkedIn in 2025? Let us know what you think!

The Rest of the Story

Of course none of this means that there aren’t snippets of good news out there. Including the ongoing recovery of the ozone layer: 202450 Celeste Saulo_Ozone Layer on Track to Recover in Next Few Decades. Some of the most motivating examples of arguably good news can be found in recent podcast episodes, including David Roberts’ 202501 Volts_Thermal Energy Networks Are the Next Big Thing - Zeyneb Magavi and Eric Bosworth, reporting on the MASSIVE potential of geothermal energy networks to heat and cool homes and buildings. There is no guarantee we’ll overcome the infrastructural and financial barriers that are involved, but we can dream! Similarly, 202501 Volts_Organizing Local Support for Clean Energy Projects - Matt Traldi is an inspirational look at Matt Traldi’s “Greenlight” organization, and what can be accomplished with the right focus and theory of change. At the same time Michael Barnard’s Redefining Energy Tech podcast provides a lengthy look at what could be accomplished with High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission systems if we choose to deploy them: 202412 RET41_The HVDC Grid Revolution 1 with John Fitzgerald and [202412 RET42_The HVDC Grid Revolution 2].

There were also thought-provoking announcements like 202502 Christopher Knop_The CSI-MRV Trust Promises 300 Year Verification of Wood Burial. And we’ll end with a couple of informative posts. 202501 Gavin Mooney_Visualizing Solar Around the World tees up an interesting video demonstrating where solar is expanding the fastest, while 202501 Paul Storm_AI Course Resources points you to several free AI courses you might be interested in taking.

We hope issue #7 of the newsletter has been thought-provoking!

Mark Trexler and Zsolt Lengyel

NOTE: In this newsletter we’ve included links to a number of podcast episodes we found very insightful. The links don’t go to the podcast episodes themselves, since there are so many podcast platforms you might listen to podcasts on. Instead, the links go to the Climatographers’ Climate Podcasts Knowledgebase, where you can access short summaries as well as full transcripts of the episodes. It should be easy from there to find the episodes themselves to listen to.