Paul Saffo Foresight 2011
<p>Jun 27, 2011 11:31 PM
 
talked about watching for the INFLECTION POINT of a field:
 
Overestimate early (before infection) and then underestimate later (after inflection)
Moore’s law has been the mother of all inflection points. It an exponential but also a constant
Jim Dater -Forecasts have three things Constants, cycles and novelties
A constant has been Moore’s law, more constants that cycles
Cycle’s – business cycles, sunspot cycle, kondratiev waves, may not be here now but will come back later
More cycles than novelties
Novelties - first time more urban than rural population (first time ever)
Small novelties could set off sparks
Robotics revolution
Roomba – names for them
2004 Grand challenge - a lot of crashes
Oct 2005 – 22 out of 23 got further than the best of 2004 and 5 completed the race
Nov 2007 – another successful ace
Oct 2010 revealed that Google had been running robotic cars
Enhance the rental car experience
Have the robot car drive to the user.
Whistle car and robo-taxi
Pay for the privilege of driving google streetview cars
Have super-collision avoidance and other driving enhancements instead of full-robo cars
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