Hanson, Robin
<p>Jan 28, 2010 6:23 PM
 
World Product (GDP for all world)  doubles every 15 years!
Madisson Concept
 
Inflections:  period 1:  hunter-gather to agriculture was first inflect
2)  second was industrial revolution.
 
Next inflection might look like this
2044                2045            2046   (with AI/nanotech)
15% growth        50% gwth    150%
 
First adoptor  grains
 
Knowledge has always been KEY.
What will cause new singularity.
 
Labor is a huge part of GDP  (human capital)  if can autoate it then great productivity.
 
prob. will need brain emulation  (and not hand-coded)
He loves Ricardo  from 1821.
Complements  vs  Substitutes   (will machines substit or complement)
complements are like R shoe and L shoe;  substit are like R pencil vs blue pencil.
 
feedback btwn RATE and LEVEL   + feedback characterizes exponential growth.
 
human economy is a v complex growth model;
 
Robin Hanson like SLICE and SCAN a la Stfd  (Steve Smith)
 
He describes himself as a broker of conventional wisdom;
 
 
 
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