Warren Redlich
<p>January 1, 2020, 1:01 PM</p>
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<p>Hey Warren,</p>
<p>Very informative and entertaining YouTube even minus the ladies and the over-the-top zingers at the end.</p>
<p>BUT ... I don' t think Elon or his Chief of AI (the formidable Andrej Karpathy (whom Elon lured away from us at Stanford)) can pull off full (Level 5) self-driving in the next few years. I'll bet they can achieve improved Level 3 with fewer disengagements, but Level 5 is just too hard for now (for everybody.)</p>
<p>My detailed argument is here:</p>
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<p>https://www.bobblum.com/ESSAYS/COMPSCI/self-driving-cars.html</p>
<p>cleaner</p>
<p>The essence of the argument is that Level 5 depends on AI breakthroughs that will take several more years to achieve - specifically focused on intuitive physics and intuitive psychology to crack the "long tail" of edge cases.</p>
<p>I do like the rest of your bullish thesis (and love it when the shorts get squeezed.) Keep up the good work (and I'd like to see you in the governor's mansion.)</p>