McKinsey 2013 Disruptive Future Tech
<p>Sep 21, 2014 12:58 PM projections to the year 2025 !!</p>
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recomm by Steve Omohundro in his talk.
online pdf (and in my files)</p>
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3X incr in efficiency of N Americ gas well btwn 2007 and 2011...</p>
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85% drop in cost per watt of solar PV cell since 2000.</p>
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2-3B more people with internet access in 2025.</p>
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5-7 Tr in economic impact by 2025 of automation of know. work.</p>
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$100 in 1 hour: seq human genome in deacde.</p>
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1X to 2X incr in N Americ oil by 2025 with fracking and horiz drilling.</p>
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16% solar and wind global electr by 2025. (assume policy support for
CO2 < 450 by 2050.</p>
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Tech: new ways of doing things that biz and cultures do NOT UNLEARN !!!</p>
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Adopted tech => embodied in capital.</p>
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materials tech (graphene); energy production; genome seq;</p>
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5B people will have cell phones; Internet of Things;</p>
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Advanced robotics: => 6.3 Tr in labor costs.</p>
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cloud tech => 3 Trillion.</p>
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they winnowed 100 candidate techs;</p>
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see Exhibit E1: mobile internet;</p>
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automation of know work: perform unstruc commands and use subtle judgments.</p>
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Int of Things: process optimization</p>
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cloud tech</p>
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adv robotics: </p>
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auton vehicles...</p>
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next-gen genomics</p>
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energy storage eg batteries.</p>
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3d printing...</p>
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advanced materials</p>
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oil and gas explor/ recovery...</p>
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renewable energy: solar, wind.</p>
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Int of Things: 1 trillion things could be connected: manufac; health care, mining.
100M M2M (machine to machine connex); transport, security, HCare, utilities.</p>
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also see Box 1: other tech on the radar...</p>
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next-gen fission nuclear; (and fusion, but more speculative)</p>
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carbon seques.</p>
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water purific...</p>
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*</p>
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also, private space flight... asteroid mining
OLED led lighting</p>
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wireless charging, flex displays, 3d and volumetric displays.</p>
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page 15: combos of tech:</p>
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next gen genomics + nanotech => new targetd cancer drugs.</p>
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NEMS nano-electromech mahines => create sensors for I of T.</p>
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Sci discovery: </p>
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