The Singularity Is Near
<p>Feb 01, 2011 12:23 PM
 
pub  SiN  in 2005.
 
<b>Ray published Spiritual Machines in 1999 </b>and
<b>Age of Intellig Machines in 1990</b>.
 
We are in Epoch 5:  Merger of Human Tech with Human Intelligence:
 
to create higher forms of life and intel.  No... no quite right.
 
I can improve on this and I disagree with it.
 
My prediction:  1)  humans create robot consciousness
2) robot consciousness leads to internet consciousness and
3) hard take off...
 
humans get marginalized  (why:  their progress is unimportant and irrelevant, altho it does continue)
human society is managed by AIs (with our guidance).  do we cede power to them... yes... gradually;
just like humans ceding power to autopilot in an airplane or an elevator  (lots of well understood controls
and poss for human intervention.
 
Nanotech:  NO... too slow...  if it takes off after 2045, its irrelevant (but may happen).
 
AIs living in virtual worlds: NO!  why.  Humans will live in virtual worlds... possibly  (just like WoWarcraft now).
 
AIs respecting human values... no.
 
Predictions:  many of Ray's predictions depend on nanotech:  the timeline is wrong for this...
Nanotech will not happen that uqickly.  It is POST singul...  not  2020s as he predicts.
His brain modification/ brain readout depends on nanotech and is wrong.
 
2045  SINGULARITY:  sounds about right.
 </p>
<ul>
<li>The Singularity occurs as <b>artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth</b>. <b>Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act </b>and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on; thus the machines, acting in concert with those humans who have evolved into postbiological cyborgs, achieve effective world domination. The machines enter into a <b>"runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles</b>, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, <b>technological advancement is explosive</b>, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted.</li>
<li>The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The e<b>xtermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely</b> (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.</li>
</ul>
<p> (NO:  humans will not be uploaded...  everything we do and are is tightly linked to our bodies and to 20 msec time delays.
AVATARS of humans ... much more probable.)
 
Post-2045  waking up Universe....  this is way too speculative.
 
 
 </p>