Dr. Robert Zubrin

Transcript for Dr. Robert Zubrin - Opening Remarks - 25th Annual International Mars Society Convention by Merlin

good morning everyone.

I'm Nicole Willett. Welcome to the 25th

Annual Mars Society convention

It is my absolute pleasure to introduce Dr Robert

Zubrin - a great inspiration to me and as

you all know the founder and president

of the Mars Society.

Thank you very much

and thank you to all of you for

coming here today and to all those

that will be coming.

We have quite a conference scheduled. We have as of

last night around 370 people registered

and hundreds more registered for

online and we've got 150 speakers including

some very remarkable and important ones

and they're all on the agenda so I'm not

going to try to summarize that now

So instead I'm just going to begin by summarizing the case for

Mars now I'm not going to do it in the

way I did it in my book which if you

haven't read it is on sale at the table

okay

in which I go through the Mars direct

plan and explain how we can go from

there to establishing bases and

settlements and terraforming the planet

I'm going to do it a little bit in the

way that is done in the founding

Declaration of the Mars society which

summarizes uh why Mars is critical for

eight points or so which can then be

further summarized down to three which

is for the science for the challenge and

for the future

um and that is usually like if I'm

interviewed by a journalist and they say

why Mars like name those three and I'll

go through them a little bit here

uh now okay for the science okay

the early Mars was a twin of the early

Earth and so if the theory is correct

that the development of life from

chemistry is a general process of

self-organization that occurs uh in a

causal way then life should have

appeared on Mars by a causal way I mean

simply as a physical process that is

expected to occur under a given set of

conditions for example if you put a cup

of water outside in a winter night in

Colorado in the morning it will be ice

period it's not a question of chance

that's what's going to happen

um the and if you put it out in the

afternoon in the summer here in Arizona

the ice will turn to water okay there's

no two ways about it now so is life that

or is life a question of great chance of

the most incredible set of miraculous

appearances to form this really

strangered DNA or RNA molecules which

then initiate self-replical what is it

and

if it is causal how determined is it

okay you know

um is life everywhere the same as Earth

life uh with DNA and RNA which all Earth

life whether it's bacteria mushrooms or

people all use or is it uh a much wider

set of possibilities of

self-organization

um in other words we're going to find

out the truth about the

self-organization of matter which is the

key not only to life but in my view a

very important aspect of physics

okay this stealth organization of matter

and natural systems and even mathematics

um the the with enormous both

philosophical and practical implications

because the development of

self-replicating Micro Machines

grammable

uh is going to be one of the major

Technologies of the 21st century okay

you know you hear about nanotechnology

little robots well bacteria are little

self-publicating robots and we're

starting to learn to read the code and

soon we're going to learn to write the

code but maybe there's better uh

information systems than the one we

currently use that are available for

this kind of Technology could discover

that on Mars

okay so science is incredible and then

furthermore the kind of of heavy lift

systems and so forth that will enable

human missions to Mars will also enable

giant space observatories that will

enable enormous discoveries and

astrophysics we do not know the truth

about physics yet we know a few pages

from the book uh but there's enormous

questions that

are unanswered in physics like for

example why the universe exists well

there's basically the universe the

physics that we have it now

can't explain literally everything

um the um so there's that as well

um so we're talking about revolutions

and human knowledge which are Grand in

their own sake and also pretend

magnificent possibilities in technology

and there's the challenge

okay I believe that societies are like

individuals we grow and we challenge

ourselves we stagnate we don't a humans

to Mars program will be enormous

challenge healthy challenge to any

society that chooses to take part uh and

particularly beneficial to the youth and

um it tells all them learn your science

and you could become part of pioneering

a new world we had a taste of that this

summer when we used the challenge of

Designing Mars missions to inspire a

group of very talented high school

students around the world to design

their own human missions conducted in

the manner of an engineering design

class and you're going to hear some of

them during this conference because some

of them are here from the Europe as well

as North America and uh you'll see how

remarkable it is because

this challenge is enormous but finally

I'm going to talk about the future

and in order to talk about the future

I'm going to go back a little bit in

time to talk about the past to one of

the great speeches

that has in American history in in it

occurs in many volumes well it used to

anyway

rhetoric is not well studied in America

anymore but once it was and the greatest

retroortition that America ever produced

was a man named Robert Ingersoll

and in 1876 he gave a speech

which is is incredible uh it's known

variously as either the vision of War

speech or the Indianapolis speech

the place was Indianapolis

the occasion was a he was a Lincoln

Republican he was a colonel in the Union

Army Shiloh

and here he's addressing a gathering of

Civil War veterans

and he's trying to and it's for an

electoral rally for the Republican

candidate for president Hayes but he's

trying to explain to them what the war

was all about

what was what did you fight for what was

that all about okay and

he says

it was slavery that's what it's all

about he goes through the horrors of

slavery and he says they were fighting

for slavery we were fighting to end

slavery and take the stain off the flag

and we did it and but how

that we could do that

why is it that we don't need slavery

because the Confederates said we need

why don't we need slavery because we

have Enslaved the forces of nature

we make the lightning transmit our

messages for us we make the steam camera

and fashion what we choose okay the

forces of nature are our slaves they

have no

Hearts to be broken no whack backs to be

wit okay

okay and he says but where did these

machines come from

he said they came from freedom

Freedom gave us all the machines slavery

gave us none of the machines

okay

freedom is right now giving us the

machines to go to Mars

okay that's where this entrepreneurial

space Revolution is coming from okay

freedom

in a limited exercise in a limited way

gave us the tools to win the Space Race

on the challenge

in 1961 John F Kennedy said new ocean

has opened and free men must sail it and

we did and we astonished the world who

had free people could do but that was a

limited application of freedom uh now

the strength of freedom is being invoked

on a much broader scale by invoking the

power of Entrepreneurship and we're

seeing this in a revolution space flight

okay this is the so-called new space

Revolution which has been spearheaded by

SpaceX but is by no means limited to

them but just to stop for a moment on

SpaceX what they have done in the past

10 years is they've cut the cost of

launch by a factor of five

after it was

steady since 1970 for 40 years from 1970

to 2010 cost of launch was ten thousand

dollars a kilogram to orbits like a law

of nature now it's two if they're

successful with Starship it'll be 400.

um the the and this is happening okay

and it's not just them and this is very

important because there's a strength

here to this initiative that did not

exist with Apollo Apollo was successful

it was carried out under exceptional and

Brilliant political leadership but when

that leadership sees to exist when the

younger brothers of the ones who won

World War II were no longer in charge uh

we had entropy and the political system

has been incapable of undertaking

comparable Ventures since that time

um but here you have this Revolution

going on it's been Unleashed and it is

multi-faceted okay there's not just

SpaceX there's rocket lab we're going to

hear from rocket lab later this

afternoon

um and then there's others this blue

origin there's a relativity space

there's a variety of them and this is

very important because if one of them

should by chance flake out

which could happen

um the others will pick up the banner

this is not going to be stopped okay

this is a multi-faceted thing and it's

these capabilities that are going to

uh unleash the possibility not merely to

explore bars

um which a well-led NASA could do uh but

to settle Mars which will require the

Unleashed powers of the Free World uh in

its full measure

um and in in rocket lab it's very

interesting in this respect because it

was founded by an engineer from New

Zealand who did not have personal

Fortune of billions of dollars okay he

mobilized investors and he did it in a

country that doesn't even have a

government Space Program worth

mentioning

um the the and yet they've reached orbit

and they're currently planning missions

to Venus and Mars okay and they're

creating

um a partially reusable uh launch

vehicle methane oxygen

um with capabilities comparable to the

Falcon 9. um and well you'll hear about

it and it's going to be launching within

a year or two and of course Starship if

they are successful we'll be launching

to orbit within a year or so so and

these things are happening they're going

to create enormous capabilities and

here's the thing about reusable launch

Vehicles it means there will be used

launch vehicles

okay so there'll be a re a used launch

vehicle market and so

where they'll be available much cheaper

than new ones and the so there will come

a time and it'll be possible when people

who want to move to Mars groups of

people probably not individuals

um we'll be able to mobilize the

resources to it okay you know musk told

me at one time he thought he could

produce a new starship that is the upper

stage of the system for 10 million

dollars so he'd be willing to sell them

for 20.

um that's a new one okay you'd probably

be able to get a used Mexican Starship

for five million dollars

and um the the um to say nothing of the

Chinese knockwas and the the okay so a

hundred people moving to Mars having to

buy a Starship for five million dollars

is 50 000 each

um this sort of thing will be possible

and so it will become possible by

unleashing this capability

to create new societies on Mars and now

the big question is what will we create

on Mars

okay now as you know the Mars Society

had several contests in the past couple

of years uh in which people were asked

first to design a 1 000 person Mars

colony and then a one million person

Mars city-state and between the two

contests we had almost 300 submissions

and the best 40 or so can be found in

two volumes that we've published they're

available on Amazon paper or Kindle uh

and it's very interesting they discussed

the technological basis of Mars

societies but they also discussed the

societal basis what how would the

Economy based on what would be the

social system what would be the

government system and the answers on the

government system for example are quite

diverse uh they run the gamut from uh

libertarian to Social Democratic and

also certain kinds of systems that don't

if it anywhere along that Spectrum

um the and it's quite remarkable and and

if I was to pull

people

most of these from libertarian to Social

Democratic and perhaps some of the

others would have a certain amount of

support which is the right answer

well that'll be determined in practice

okay that'll be determined by as it were

natural selection not exactly darwinian

natural selection because the difference

in societal progress from darwinian is

that acquired characteristics can be

transmitted

um they can be inherited uh to the Next

Generation but also transmitted to

people that you are not related to at

all in other words inventions can be

copied uh the the which is why human

progress is much faster than biological

progress uh but here's the thing so this

is going to sort itself out and this by

the way is why I believe that a martian

tyranny is impossible some people say

well extraterrestrial Colony could be a

tyranny because the government could

turn off your air if you don't take

orders but

no one would move to an extraterrestrial

tyranny

um it would get no immigrants Okay the

reason why the United States Grew From A

a colonial Fringe to an economic and

social and cultural superpowers because

it attracted immigrants from all over

the world to a much greater extent than

any none other place in the New World

um and and and grew

um so the the society on Mars that

attracts the most immigrants that offers

people the best prospects to realize

their human potential however they

understand that those will be the ones

that outgrow the others okay they will

therefore be Noble experiments okay and

the experiments that work will be copied

and not just by other colonies on Mars

but back here on Earth and this will be

a major contributor to human progress

and I believe

that in addition to the fact that it is

attractive to immigrants that freedom

will be the key to the success of a Mars

colony because I'm going to tell you

what people ask me what is the export of

a marsh Colony there's people running

around with business plans saying

they're going to export helium-3 from

the Moon what are you going to export

from Mars

um the the

gonna helium-3 may or may not someday be

an important resource but there's

something a lot more important than

helium-3 as an export okay it is

inventions

okay the

Columbus sold the mission to Isabella

saying I'll find your spice route to

India I'll make you some money now he

did not succeed in that but as a direct

sequel to his Adventure other Spanish

Ventures did stumble upon people who had

gold that they could steal so money was

made in the transaction but that's not

the significance of that uh episode at

all uh and the adventurers that came to

Virginia were looking for gold they

didn't find it they did eventually find

crops they could grow to make money with

but that's not the significant

significance of America is not that it

supplied Europe with tobacco okay

significance is that it invented

something along the lines of what we

call democracy and then steamboats and

telegraphs and recorded sound and

centrally generated electric power and

light bulbs and airplanes and you know

nuclear power and satellite well even

invent the satellite but we made them a

true reality and the internet and all of

that

we've been an engine of invention okay I

think Mars colonies will be an enormous

engine of invention because there'll be

Frontier environments facing new

challenges with a largely highly

technically Adept population that is

going to be forced to innovate and free

to innovate and they're going to

innovate and there's all sorts of fields

they're going to be forced to innovate

in okay because I mean one reason why

American virtuosity was turned to

labor-saving Machinery was because there

was a labor shortage here relative to

say Europe okay so you had to maximize

the productivity of Labor so we became

tinkerers with labor safety Machinery

while Mars is going to have a labor

Shore it's going to make American

frontier labor shortage look very deep

so they'll be experts not just in

labor-saving machinery and then

automation but also robotics artificial

intelligence all of these things that

multiply the capacity of Labor and

It Is by multiplying the capacity of

Labor that you raise living standards

okay because the average living standard

which is the product per person equals

the amount produced per person on

average okay that's a an identity uh so

there it is so there'll be experts in

that and they'll want to multiply the

productivity per square meter of

Agriculture because they'll be confined

to Greenhouse act so they'll become

virtual Osos in biotechnology producing

Ultra productive nutritious plants I

think they'll be driven to develop

fusion power fusion power of course of

interest on Earth but there's no urgency

behind it we have plenty of otherwise to

generate electricity there's fossil

fuels windmills waterfalls

on Mars none of those things exist solar

energy exists but it's only percent as

strong as Earth nuclear power is

possible on Mars but it requires a large

industrial base to refine uranium or

thorium

deuterium on the other hand just five

times as common on Mars it is on Earth

um so that's the path for them uh

there you have it so they will make

inventions and inventions can be

licensed on Earth and patents bring in

income in other words that there's

nothing more trans easy to transport

across interplanetary distance than data

and there is no data more valuable per

bit than a pet

um okay so that's what Mars is going to

will in export inventions which means

it's exporting freedom

okay in material terms and then there's

another thing as well

because

see there's a fatal misunderstanding

that people have

um and it could cause a great deal of

trouble in this Century it caused an

enormous amount in the 20th century as

in 100 million deaths which is the idea

that there's such a thing as natural

resources

there's no such thing as a natural

resource there's only natural warm

materials it is human creativity

manifested as technology that transforms

a material into a resource land was not

a resource until people invented

Agriculture and its value as a resource

was multiplied by the invention of more

advanced agricultural Technologies uh

the in the Bronze Age iron was not a

resource

so people were using copper and Tin

which are collectively 100 parts per

million in the Earth's crust when

there's iron around which is a hundred

thousand parts per million in the

Earth's crust but to them it was just

dirt until Kilns were invented that

could smelt it

and a lumen didn't exist until the 19th

century

okay in uranium not till the 20th

um and deuterium not yet but soon

um and so it is creativity

that turns materials into resources

we can turn Mars into a resourceful

world when there are resourceful people

there

and it is this you see this is what

we're going to get from Mars we're not

going to get oil from Mars

it's conceivable they might export

deuterium to us

um but we could actually get deuterium

here

um and they may export inventions to us

I believe they will

um and and by the way the the reason why

I said Mars colonies must be free is to

invent you must be free

okay uh it is uh the fundamental

requirement

um the

so the free societies will invent the

most they will prosper the most they

will uh grow the most economically they

will attract the most immigrants okay

but it's not even the inventions that

we're going to get what we're going to

get is proof of the thesis

that there are not limited resources

that we are not okay

the Nazis for example argued that the

human race is divided into Nations that

are in a struggle for existence over

limited resources if you believe that

resources are limited then that thesis

follows with consequences that include

war and genocide

okay but if you understand that

resources are human Creations if you

understand that

by using our creativity we can create

planets then there's no point killing

each other fighting over provinces

and that's what we're going to get from

Mars

that truth

that it's not true that there's only so

much here to go around because by

working together we can throw the sky

wide open the Earth comes with an

infinite sky

thank you I'll take questions

[Applause]

we have time for a question or two

over there uh

bearing the prize for us he said it went

from we went from went from uh copper

and Tin to iron

Yeah you mentioned deuterium but it's

kind of tricky well no more trick look

iron

gone I suggest

there are plenty of free protons and

electrons hanging around within the

heliosphere okay we make that a resource

well potentially uh I don't know exactly

what you have in mind but anything

potentially can be turned into a

resource okay

you go into any genuine old west antique

store around here you will not find a

single object made of aluminum

okay because it did not exist for the

Pioneers they tramped across land filled

with it and it was called dirt

um the the and even places like this

were unsettable or even Colorado where I

live it's called the Great American

desert until the right technology was

brought to bear there

um and once again uh I believe the proof

that humans are not consumers of scarce

resources we are producers creators of

resources and that truth defines

Humanity fundamentally as a a family

engaged in a joint project to expand the

human Horizon it's a very disorderly

family to be quite sure uh uh but

nevertheless that's what it really is

okay

and and that's what we can do

yes next question sir

uh We've we've been

talking about and planning for for

exploration for going back to the Moon

Back To Mars uh but what you're speaking

of with the settlement of Mars and the

industrialization of Mars and setting up

a society there uh is a whole different

level of an engagement and development

and organization how do we how do we

shift that that focus and that planning

from you know getting 10 people to

survive on Mars for two years to to

getting 10 000 people on and and gain

that

doing everything that's needed for us by

making it possible

the the

look you know if these reusable launch

Vehicles succeed if if in 2024 starships

are going to orbit with Saturn V class

payloads and they're doing it twice a

month at three percent the cost of the

Saturn V launch because they're reusable

then all of a sudden humans to Mars

becomes a practical Endeavor

um and and we'll start making it on to

the plans of government planners now

their Horizons only extend to perhaps

the first or the second to the three

points that I mentioned for the science

for the challenge okay

um but Humanity as a whole Mars is more

than an object of scientific inquiry it

is a world okay and you know

well I None of the European powers the

Age of Exploration ever conceived of

America as an object of scientific

inquiry or primarily as such actually

Jefferson conceived of the American West

as an object of scientific inquiry but

the uh but certainly not as the primary

purpose of it

um but if they had if if the world then

had a politically in terms of

bureaucracies and such uh resembled ours

uh and if the only thing that the you

know the National Science Foundation of

Spain had been interested in about the

Americas was uh the the the scientific

discoveries to be made there

um nevertheless society as a whole would

not have stopped there

um that is uh new possibilities would be

thought by more people and that's by the

way an important point to this it's not

going to be left to uh a group of

lawyers or political careers or uh the

scientific administrators and

functionaries to decide what happens on

Mars this new space Revolution is going

to make it possible for Humanity as a

whole uh well put it differently for

people from all parts of humanity that's

different than Humanity as a whole that

because we'll never get everybody to

agree okay and if if you had to get

everyone to agree that

drink orange juice this morning you

would not be able to drink orange juice

okay

but you can do it because that's an

individual choice and what this is going

to do is make possible individual choice

to be exercised on a very broad scale in

many different ways but I believe that

the ones that will matter will be the

ones that create as it were

self-replicating growing

things on Mars that is more successful

Mars city states that attract immigrants

that make inventions that allow them to

prosper and therefore have political

institutions and social Customs Etc that

are friendly towards that and

you know that that's how it works uh the

so I think I'm out of time

um and therefore I will stop and thank

you

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