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"Buy land, they're not making any more of it" doesn't work any more
15% of the U.S. population will live in areas at risk of flooding by 2100
175,000 people left Miami-Dade County after Hurricane Andrew in 1992
2008 Study looked at multiple scenarios
2010 Displacement of coastal populations to 2050
2013 We don't know how fast Greenland and Antarctica will lose ice mass
2014 Property under MHHW (Mean High High Water - peak high tide) line by 2100
2014 Property under MSL in 2100
24. We need proper disclosures for property sales
8. World has witnessed very rapid sea level rise in the past
A lot of people are exposed. And there's a lot of uncertainty
A major real-estate developer's perspective
Accelerated ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland is a significant factor
After banks stopped writing 30 year mortgages, the stock exchange fell dramatically
As flood insurance rises in price, it will have a big impact
As NFIP premiums increase, potential buyers disappear
As of just a few years ago people were talking about simply engineering our way out of the problem
Because limestone is porous, sea walls won't always help
Biggest questions involve mass loss of ice into the oceans
Bottom line conclusions
By 2100, some 1700 American cities and towns will be "locked in" to damaging sea level rise
Climate change preparations are clearly inadequate for the real estate sector
Climate gentrification reverses the process of wanting to be at the waters edge
Coastal mortgages are growing into a bubble as large as 2007
Costs of abandoning lands to SLR will be multiple
Damaging flooding will increase by 25-fold
Do nothing is not an option
Don't count on the government buying you out
During the Meltwater Pulse sea level rose more than a foot per decade for four centuries
Estimated property value impacts by county for the different scenarios
Even at very modest levels of SLR, there is a negative impact on Washington DC
Even NFIP reforms that passed in 2016 failed in 2017
Extreme weather events will affect real estate markets
For risk assessment purposes IPCC's "likely" estimates of SLR are inadequate
Freddie Mac has already warned this scenario is evolving faster than expected
Freshwater melt and SLR scenarios
Government climate policy is likely to impact real estate before climate change itself
Gravity's implications for regional sea level rise are significant
Historical records suggest a relationship of 20 meters per degree C of temperature change
How confident should we be that's the worst case?
In Australia zoning is starting to account for SLR
In some communities future revenues from tourism and property taxes likely to fall >30% by 2050
Increase in 100-year flooding events based on 1 meter SLR
Investment in FL real estate continues
IPCC in 2007 estimated .09 to 0.9 m SLR by 2100
Key questions when it comes to real estate risks
Lenders should review their insurance coverage
Long-term sensitivity of sea level circa 2.3m/oC. Commitment exceeds observed change 10-fold
Massive increases in flood damage for 136 largest coastal cities by 2050
Maybe the reality of sea level rise is sufficient to get public's attention
Most Floridians are still optimists
No telling what the trigger might be
Official statistics dramatically underestimate real estate related damages
People are much more aware of SLR than just a few years ago
Poorer communities have historically developed on higher ground
Premiums in one area could go from $1,000 to $10,000; home becomes worthless
Premiums will increase by a factor of 5 in flood zones
Property values could collapse before a home is flooded
Real estate profitability will be increasingly influenced by climate policy
Realtors in FL face no duty to disclose
Rising flood insurance premiums in Florida could kill the real estate market
Scientists are concerned they don't fully understand what's happening to ice sheets
Sea level rise is accelerating
Sea level rise raises tricky issues
Serious climate change risk assessment is not being done for most real estate portfolios
Should real estate brokers have to disclose?
Starting to see evidence that middle-income people are leaving Miami Beach
Suggesting a strong premium for proximity to shoreline
The availability heuristic is at work
The big question for coastal property owners and financial institutions
The day a bank stopped writing 30-year mortgages in Florida
The difference between 3 feet and 6 feet of SLR by 2100 is dramatic
The level of warming today is 200 times what it was during the big change 55 million years ago
The peak will likely come during the 2020s
The real estate market is not prepared
The study of extreme event forecasting and real estate implications still in its infancy
There is a significant discount in property value immediately after a flood, but it doesn't last
Transitioning to market rates will have huge implications
Uncertainty means risk, and it's the uncertainty you need to look at
Uncertainty over sea level rise is attributable to the fact that the rate of current warming is without precedent in the known geologic record
When people focus on the short term, risk is down-played

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