Unknown knowns

I find the idea of 'unknown knowns' fascinating. Initially it might not seem to make much sense. How can a known thing also be unknown? The idea begins to make sense when we explore the boundaries of knowledge and the extent to which we might know about something and also where does the knowledge of a known thing come from? I'd like to give a few examples.

Subconscious information retrieval

When we recall a fact from our subconscious, it seems as if it was always there just waiting for the moment to be recalled. Some facts can be retrieved instantly but sometimes the answer simply takes time for it to arrive in our conscious mind. You might remember your birthday instantly but not the clothes you wore exactly 2 weeks ago although there is some thinking you might work it out based on what you were doing that day is a good example of how we might think we know something because we believe the information is lodged in our subconscious and yet our ability to recall it may seem to be beyond understanding or conscious ability. The factors the subconscious mind is a reservoir of a huge amount of information which we make the day-to-day assumption that we 'know'. In reality the retrieval of this information is determined by a large number of factors that live beyond our conscious mind.

Forgotten knowledge

We are exposed to vast amounts of new information every day some of it may lodge in our minds and some might not. This could be down to how interesting the information is you might remember how to drive from A to B but you might lose that skill in nightly if you use the satnav or rely on AI to do most of thinking for you to watch extent we forget or lose skills is a great unknow. Even we are unaware that we have lost knowledge or skill until we try to recall it and find it as absent.

Lost wisdom and skills of humankind

throughout time humankind has burned or lost so many valuable documents of wisdom and insight. We know they exist because they are referenced in other writings, but sadly we don't know the detail of what they contain. Lost arts include the craftsmanship of yesteryear which is now lost. Even in modern times information recorded on early computers and media may be in formats that are no longer readable or there may simply have degraded over time. It is unknown how much we lose every year.

Many crucial scientific and philosophical texts have been lost to history, with only fragments or secondary references surviving. Here is a brief list of some of the most important lost works, often cited by scholars as potentially transformative:

Lost Scientific Texts

• **Archimedes’ Treatises:** Many works of the brilliant ancient Greek mathematician and scientist are lost; only partial texts have survived, such as those uncovered in the Archimedes Palimpsest[1][2].
• **Euclid’s Lost Treatises:** Aside from “Elements,” twelve additional works attributed to Euclid have disappeared[1].
• **Texts of the Library of Alexandria:** The destruction of the library resulted in the loss of hundreds of thousands of scrolls on science, mathematics, medicine, and other knowledge[1][3].
• **Yongle Encyclopedia:** An 11,000-volume Chinese encyclopedia from the Ming Dynasty, covering all known subjects, of which only a tiny portion remains[4][5].
• **Mayans’ Bark-Cloth Codices:** Thousands of scientific and historical texts were destroyed during the Spanish conquest; fewer than five survive[4][5].

Lost Philosophical Texts

• **Aristotle’s Lost Works:** Of an estimated 200 works—covering philosophy, politics, biology, and literary theory—only 31 remain; notably, the second book of “Poetics” (on comedy) is missing[1][6].
• **Protagoras’ and Heraclitus’ Writings:** Influential pre-Socratic philosophical works survive only in fragments and quotations[7][6].
• **Pythagoras’ Original Writings:** None of his philosophical or mathematical texts are extant[7][6].
• **Confucius’ Sixth Classic:** The “Classic of Music,” part of Confucian canon, was destroyed during the 3rd-century BC “Burning of Books and Burying of Scholars” episode[4].
• **Zeno of Elea and Zeno of Citium:** Philosophical works foundational to atomism and stoicism are lost entirely or survive only in quotations[6].

Religious and Miscellaneous Lost Texts

• **Sibylline Books:** Roman oracular texts consulted for centuries; the originals and replacements are lost[4].
• **Book of the Wars of the LORD:** A Hebrew biblical text referenced by other scriptures, likely containing ancient historical and military accounts[1].
• **Zoroastrian Avesta:** The original sacred texts of Zoroastrianism, mostly lost after the conquest of Persia[4].

The depth of knowledge

We might feel we know something about the subject, but we might not understand to what extent we know everything about it. Even if you're a highly skilled doctor, you may be a specialist in one area such as psychiatry but your knowledge about nephrology or dermatology might be limited. You might be an architect but may need to draw upon many other specialists in order to complete a design such as a bridge which could involve accessing a large amount of information about local geology and substrata and civil engineering material strengths. Each architecture may need to draw upon a difference amount of extra information depending on the depth of their knowledge.

Tacit knowledge

Tacit knowledge as “unknown knowns” refers to skills, insights, and experiences people possess but cannot easily articulate, document, or may not even realize they hold.

An interesting example would be the way we are able to walk without being consciously aware of moving one leg after the other it simply seems to happen. Clearly, our mind knows how to do this and we have the knowledge of how to walk without having the knowledge of how we actually perform it.

Examples include

• • A surgeon performing a complex procedure based on years of experience but unable to fully describe each subtle motion.

•An engineer or technician “just knowing” the right way to fix a machine, even if the process is undocumented.

•Navigating workplace norms or “unspoken rules” that guide decisions and reactions, rooted in organizational culture

Distributed or collective knowledge and collective memory.

We might think of knowledge as our understanding of a group of facts, but is the knowledge held in one place or is it in itself distributed? Within the mind. Knowledge may be distributed across many areas of the brain. Our ability to focus on knowledge may require information from the pre-frontal cortex from the visual cortex and for motor and sensory areas memory and emotional centres or being brought together.

This phenomenon occurs across groups of people and represents a collective consciousness. A good example would be a person who is driving with an stream of traffic subconsciously they are responding to the speed of the driver in front and in the rear and to all of the signals on the road While the conscious mind may be focused on the destination. They may not be aware of all the immediate information processing required to complete the task. In the meantime the speed of the car and its position on the road and what is a car accelerate slow down turn left right maybe largely controlled by the other drivers when taking together a system with people driving on a road can be sort of as a kind of distributed mind, we are no single person is aware of everything that is going on. The system is actually exhibits memory just like the human mind for instance a car accident may cause a disruption to the flow of traffic hours after the flow traffic is opened again there's still remains the perpetuation of a traffic jam the propagates backwards through the road. Hours after the event traffic may still be slowing down because of an event that happens hours in the past it is a kind of memory.

Predicting risk

Assessing and predicting risk factors is critical in modern business functions. We may be able to protect the likelihood of an adverse event happening but still not know when it will happen or to what extent that risk may be mitigated and what the outcome of an event will be if it does happen.

A good example might be the risk of an earthquake. Take the San Andreas Fault. The risk of a major, destructive earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in the next 50 years is very high, and such an event is expected to have serious, widespread effects on human life and infrastructure throughout Southern California and possibly beyond.

Surprisingly for many businesses, the mitigation is simply insurance. Buildings may be designed to with Stanton earthquake but it all depends on the severity of earthquake which isn't unknown known. Again the. catastrophic effect on life is an unknown known. Out of interest here are the facts.

Probability Estimates

•The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates there is a 7% probability of a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurring somewhere along the San Andreas Fault within the next 30 years.

•For earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 or greater (similar to Northridge 1994), the probability statewide is once every 6.7 years, suggesting continued risk throughout the next several decades.

•Specific models and regional predictions for southern California (including Los Angeles) indicate a greater than 99% chance of a major earthquake somewhere in California in the next 30 years, and a 75% risk of a giant earthquake (M7+) in the greater Los Angeles region within the same period.

Potential Effects

•A magnitude 7.8 event along the southern San Andreas Fault could cause:

•1,800 deaths

•Approximately 50,000 injuries

•$200 billion or more in economic damages

•Tens of thousands of homes destroyed and widespread infrastructure failures.

•Secondary effects include massive fires, water supply disruptions, and long-term displacement of residents.

Limitations and Uncertainties

•Precise prediction of the timing, location, and impact of individual earthquakes remains elusive, but geological studies show the southern San Andreas is “overdue” for a major rupture.

•The probability of the “Big One” is high for California as a whole, and particularly for regions directly situated on or near the fault.

Scientific Consensus

•Most experts believe a major life-threatening earthquake will occur along the San Andreas Fault within the next 50 years, with probabilities for catastrophic events ranging from 7% (for M8+) to over 99% for strong but somewhat smaller earthquakes.

That the earthquake will happen is a known, but the severity of it and extent of the damage to infrastructure, businesses and people remains an unknown known.