6. Nonlinearity, Thresholds & Phase Transitions

Lens: Pay attention to nonlinear responses and tipping dynamics.

• Nonlinear responses: Small interventions with large effects, and large investments with small or delayed effects.
• Threshold effects: Adoption thresholds (digital literacy, primary care density, coverage levels) that trigger qualitative shifts in behavior or performance.
• Tipping points / phase shifts: Conditions under which the system moves into a new regime (e.g., value-based payment dominance, private sector share, trust collapse or recovery).