Bolger, G

<p class="pubdate">Published: November 14, 2012

by S.V. DÁTE</p>

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If voters were surprised to watch TV networks call the election for President Obama over Republican Mitt Romney minutes after polls closed in California last week, perhaps it was because of earlier statements like these:

--"Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida."</p>

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--"I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we've already painted those red, we're not polling any of those states again."

--"Minnesota is very much a battleground state due to the low minority population of the state and President Obama's problems with white voters. Romney has a good chance to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the election cycle in this state."</p>

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Those predictions came from Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research in remarks to his Florida newspaper clients; David Paleologos, a pollster from Suffolk University, speaking to Fox News; and <b>Glen Bolger, a pollster at Public Opinion Strategies, writing a memo for the Republican-affiliated firm NMB Research.</b></p>

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Coker's poll showed Romney ahead in Florida by 6 percentage points on Nov. 2, four days before the election. Florida went for Obama by a single percentage point.</p>

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Paleologos made his comments during an Oct. 9 appearance on Bill O'Reilly's TV show. Obama went on to win Virginia as well as Florida, and only lost North Carolina by 2 percentage points.

And Bolger's memo was released to the media by the conservative American Future Fund on Nov. 4, just two days before Obama won Minnesota by 8 percentage points.

Many Republicans over the final weekend, particularly those appearing on conservative media, were predicting not just a Romney victory but a substantial Romney victory, with upwards of 300 electoral votes. Much of that optimism seemed based on these and similar polls in both the presidential and Senate contests.

Mason-Dixon, for example, released late polls showing Senate GOP leads in both Montana and North Dakota. It showed Missouri Republican Todd Akin — notorious for his comment that female bodies had the ability to prevent pregnancy in cases of "legitimate" rape — trailing incumbent Claire McCaskill by just 2 percentage points. Democrats won in all three Senate races; McCaskill won by 15 percentage points.

"To say that I'm unhappy would be an understatement," said Harry Wilson, head of the polling center at Virginia's Roanoke College, which projected 5-point Virginia wins for both Romney and GOP Senate candidate George Allen on Oct. 31. Romney lost the state by 3 percentage points, and Allen lost by 5. "I was drinking that Republican Kool-Aid," Wilson said.

Wilson and other pollsters cited the same miscalculation: an assumption that the electorate that showed up Nov. 6 would be older, whiter and more Republican than the one that actually turned out. Obama's victory in 2008, juiced by higher-than-normal turnout by young voters and minorities, was seen as an aberration, unlikely to be repeated in a struggling economy.

"It was a defensible, logical decision — that was wrong," Wilson said.</p>

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<h2>Glen Bolger (VA)</h2>

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<p class="bio-content">Glen Bolger is one of the Republican Party's leading political strategists and pollsters. He is a partner and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, a national political and public affairs survey research firm whose clients include leading political figures, Fortune 500 companies, and major associations. Public Opinion Strategies has 15 U.S. Senators, six governors, and more than 75 Members of Congress as clients.

Glen is one of the few pollsters ever to twice receive the “Pollster of the Year” award from the American Association of Political Consultants, winning the prestigious award for his work in both 2002 and 2009.</p>

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In 2012, Glen polled for three new Republican members of Congress, and his firm polled for nearly one-third of the House freshmen.  Glen also served as pollster for <b>Super PACs in twelve additional congressional wins, and for the Republican Governor’s Association</b> Independent Expenditure campaign in North Carolina, the only gubernatorial campaign to change partisan control.</p>

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Glen served as the pollster on the Proposal Two campaign in Michigan, and the subsequent fight to pass <b>Right-to-Work </b>in the state.  In addition, Glen was the pollster for Restore Our Future, the Mitt Romney Super PAC which played a key role in Romney’s primary wins, and he was part of the polling team for American Crossroads.</p>

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In 2010, Glen served as pollster for the successful campaigns of five Senators, one Governor, and 27 Members of Congress.  In addition, Glen served as the pollster for seven successful major statewide Independent Expenditure campaigns, as well as the largest Independent Expenditure in the congressional races, working in 76 congressional races, including 49 of the seats Republicans took away from Democrats.  Overall, Glen polled in 53 of the 63 Republican pick-up districts.</p>

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In 2009, Glen served as pollster to Bob McDonnell’s come-from-behind Gubernatorial win in Virginia.

In state legislative races, Glen has polled for successful Republican legislative candidates in Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Virginia, and Washington State.

Glen’s corporate polling experience includes crisis management polling for some of the top issues in recent years, as well as image and message work for major clients such as <b>Wal-Mart, Bank of America, BlueCross BlueShield of Florida, Tyson Foods, BNSF Railway, Catholic Health Association, Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids, </b>and numerous Fortune 500 companies.</p>

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Prior to co-founding Public Opinion Strategies, Glen was the Director of Survey Research & Analysis for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the political arm of the House Republican Conference. He is a graduate from The American University in Washington, D.C. Glen and his wife Carol have three daughters.</p>

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