The Climate Web
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The Climate Web 10/5/2026
Top-Level Topical Headings
Top Level Extracted Materials Headings
E - Decisionmaking Top Level
E - Barriers to Climate Progress
E - Decisionmaking Barriers
E - Decisionmaking w Uncertainty
E - Probabilistic Decision-Making
E - Changing Probability Distributions
E - Exceedance Curves
Parents
E - Changing Probability Distributions
Children
2000-2050 (2012) Annual probability of loss due to hurricanes for Miami-Dade Region
2003 Alberta Environment_Exceedance Curves Fact Sheet
2009 Chance of exceeding 2 degrees high even with extreme assumptions
2010 1% Exceedance - High value water availability
2010 1% Exceedance - Water for Mining
2010 10% Exceedance - High value water availability
2010 10% Exceedance - Water for mining
2010 50% exceedance - High value water availability
2010 50% Exceedance - Water for Mining
2010 Annual U.S. GDP impacts, reflecting annual variability
2010 Annualized U.S. loss trend - water impacts
2010 High value sector water availability - municipalities, industry, energy
2010 Hydroelectric water availability
2010 It's also possible to calculate probabilities vs. economic impact
2010 Mining water availability
2010 National employment impacts
2010 National GDP impacts
2010 Normalized state by state water availability in 2050
2010 Second order uncertainty is the uncertainty in the uncertainty
2010 Sectors losing the most GDP due to drought in 1% EP simulation
2010-2100 (2015) Probability that today’s 30-year floods will occur in a given year regionally
2013 Global CO2+CH4 vs. Carbon Majors 1850-2010
2014 Changing wind exceedance curves
2015 Global probability of exceeding 99th extremes with temperature increase
2015 Probability of extreme precipitation events under warming
2017 Budgets can be estimate in terms of what will lead to a threshold exceedance, versus what will avoid hitting that threshold
2017 Linking SLR to annual variability in flooding risk
2017 Probabilities of flooding in Florida for 2070 by scenario
2019 A cumulative distribution function (CDF) transforms a probability distribution into an exceedance curve from 0 to 100%. A complementary CDF (CCDF) does the reverse, from 100% to 0%
2020 Hurricane Risk in New York City
Annual exceedance probability curves
Annual probability of hurricane loss
Can apply confidence intervals to the exceedance probability curve
Can apply confidence intervals to the exceedance probability curve
CCDF complementary cumulative probability function
Change in loss exceedance curve
Cumulative exceedance probability curve for GDP losses
Exceedance curve linked to development and climate change
Exceedance curves instead of expected values
Exceedance probability levels
Explaining an exceedance curve
How extreme events rapidly get more extreme
Hurricane loss exceedance curves for MA 2010 to 2060
Likelihood that Sacramento and Rio Grande rivers fall below critical flow levels
Probability exceedance curves over time for IPCC scenarios
Probability of temperature exceedance curves in 2100 for current IPCC scenarios - there is a lot of uncertainty
Projected coastal flood increases
Relative change in exceedance probability for extreme precipitation intensities
Relative probability of extremes compared to pre-industrial
Risk assessment can be expressed through exceedance probability curve
Risk Quantification - exceedance probability curves
Tail value at risk
The top 20 (out of 90)
Jumps
I - ExceedanceCurves