Risk management does not work for complex risks
Summarizing the key arguments against applying conventional risk management in complexity:
- We cannot foresee risks in complexity, and consequently, we cannot manage what we cannot see or understand.
- In complex settings, risk isn’t a quantity that can be managed and reduce. It is a product of the wider interactions, interdependencies and relationships within the system.
- Risk management is often aimed at the wrong direction – the known, obvious and foreseeable risks.
- The artifacts of risk management create the illusion of controlling complexity which is often unrecognized risks in itself. The analysis, metrics and plans can lull organisations into complacency.
- Risk management can lead to rigidity and inadequate focus on agility, sensemaking, adaptation and resilience.