Unintended Consequences

Unintended Consequences

Because complex systems are dynamic and ever changing, when we are planning to intervene in the system it is therefore unlikely we will be able to identify and understand all of the relationships and dynamics that exist that might impact on our action. Therefore we will always have a degree of uncertainty to contend with when designing and implementing interventions in the system. This uncertainty leads to unintended consequences, both positive and negative when we intervene.

In exploring the sources of unintended consequences, Rober Merton identified ignorance, errors in analysis, self-interest, values, and solutions bias as being the prime drivers [1]. More recently sources of unintended consequences are broadly attributed to mental models, and bias and assumptions.

This uncertainty about unintended consequences can also introduce fear, and prevent us from engaging in the system. While we are not able to anticipate all unintended consequences before action (this is why feedback loops are so critical in system thinking), we can at a minimum give concerted effort to exploring them before taking action and using these insights to refine our intended action. Doing so helps information move from the unknown into the known.

In this simple activity, we explore unintended consequences by repeatedly asking “what else might happen” based on a proposed action.

Accessibility

This activity requires participants to engage is social learning

Output: The output from the process produces a butchers paper map of possible consequences, which can then be captured digitally through tools such as MURAL, IDEAFLIP, or MIRO.

This is a Tool: a very small, contained, activity, which only has 1-2 steps. You'll apply this exactly the same way each time you use it.

Investment: low cost, low resources, low skill, low time

Outcomes

• Identification of possible unintended consequences, which are mapped in chain relationship
• Insights on how, where and why to refine your proposed action before implementation

When and Why Do I Use This

Find Leverage: identifying unintended consequences can help to surface possible leverage points which were previously hidden due to bias, assumptions or mental models. This exercise can also affirm which points of leverage should be used to intervene.

Act Strategically : when acting strategically we are aiming to hold close an understanding of the dynamics in the system and use this information to determine which action should be taken next. We can use this exercise before any action to ensure we are mindful of system dynamics.

Relationships : In this exercise we explore unintended consequences through a series of relationships stemming from the proposed action. In this way we are able to identify related impacts or ‘ripple’ effects of a proposed action and see more clearly relationships in the system.

Dynamics : Once we have identified the chain of relationships through unintended consequences from a proposed action we can step back to ask about the cumulative impact of the collective consequences to ascertain the overall dynamic impact on the system the action will create.