Assumption Testing

Assumptions Testing

We all come with assumptions, biases, and blind spots - even if we don’t know we do.

We can’t know everything, but by having some sense of what we do know as well as assume, we can better respond to new information as it becomes apparent. When it comes to working in complex contexts it’s safer to assume that our assumptions are more likely to be wrong than right. Or that we at least still have a lot to learn from others.

As part of understanding the challenge in front of us, it’s therefore important to surface, prioritise, and test our critical assumptions on an ongoing basis. We can do this using a simple but strategic assumption surfacing and testing method, which was originally developed as a contribution to strategic planning and is now often used in innovative design processes.

This simple method is a participatory way of surfacing assumptions and testing how our understanding is changing over time. Within a group, it builds the capability to surface, test and constantly question assumptions. This is about helping participants to be mindful of how they are seeing the system and being open to learning new things.

Accessibility:

This activity requires participants to read written notes on a large wall space

This activity requires ample space to move around a room

This activity requires participants to engage is social learning

Output: The output from the process produces a map of assumptions which be captured digitally through tools such as MURAL, IDEAFLIP, or MIRO and a series of tests and insights that can be shared simply with a word document.

This is a Process: a medium sized activity, there are a series of steps, usually involving several participants, and is used to achieve a specific output often in 1 session.

Investment: low cost, low resources, medium skill, low time

Outcomes

Assumptions testing is critical when dealing with complexity. In complex contexts, both the problem and the solution require careful consideration and framing. There is no obviously ‘correct’ solution, and any solution will likely need to evolve over time in response to changing system dynamics. Assumptions testing can help by enabling:

• Formerly tacit assumptions to be surfaced for explicit examination
• Greater visibility of the underlying assumptions that participants often unconsciously bring with them to a problem situation
• The comparison and evaluation of the assumptions of different participants
• The ‘solution space’ to become richer and more novel [1]

When and Why Do I Use This

Systems practice: When a strategy, hypothesis or approach begins to emerge, it can be a good time for you and your team to work through this method. It is an important part of.

Reflect, learn, adapt: Surfacing assumptions can also help you and your team to continually reflect, learn, adapt in an easy to track way.

Act Strategically: Being aware of assumptions – your own and others – can help the group to act strategically.