Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning

Scenarios are narratives or storylines that can be developed with stakeholders about a wide range of plausible futures. Exploratory scenarios are typically alternative visions of what could happen. They are not about what we think should occur (normative), nor are they predictions of what is most likely to occur (predictive).

Qualitative scenarios can be creative but they also need to be relevant, credible and have an internally consistent logic.  This method combines inductive and deductive approaches to explore plausible futures and develop plausible and compelling stories of how the future might unfold.

There are five steps in this scenario planning method and they have been derived from several sources [1, 2, 3]:

• identify the focal question (ie. what are plausible futures for land transport in Australia in 2040?)
• identify the key drivers (including uncertainties)
• determine the scenario logic (the framework)
• describe the scenario assumptions (for each of the alternative futures and the key drivers)
• assess scenario outcomes (work through the implications of the scenario assumptions using a qualitative storyline)

These stages are best grouped into three distinct parts to be held as separate workshops. Scenario planning should be participatory and engage a diverse group of people.  Judgment of what is possible, plausible, probable, or even preferable, will differ between people and over time. This is what makes discussions about scenarios so engaging and important. It is this discussion which can generate rich insights into the future, and inform decisions in the present.

Accessibility:

This activity requires ample space to move around a room

This activity requires participants to engage is sensemaking and pattern recognition

This activity requires participants to read written notes on a large wall space

This activity requires participants to engage is social learning

Output: The output from the process produces a series of scenarios that can be captured using a word document, or visually represented through film or imagery.

This is a Method: a larger scale procedure.  It usually involves multiple participants and sessions in order to complete.  The procedure to complete generally remains the same between applications, but often contains smaller actions which can be rearranged or scaled to suit context and need.

Investment: medium cost, medium resources, high skill, high time

Outcomes 

• conversation and engagement on where we might be headed as well as where we are now.
• a way to unlock ideas about the present, but thinking about the future
• strategic insights as the implications of different scenarios are explored

When and Why Do I Use This 

Find Leverage: Scenario planning can be a way to develop a shared understanding of the future system in order to Find Leverage. It is a way of highlighting potential future opportunities as well as testing current strategic assumptions.

Relationships and Dynamics: When we explore possible future scenarios, we are also examining and considering existing and possible future relationships and dynamics between parts in the system.