Ctr for climate change communic 4C
<div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">=</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">unrelated? 1219</font></div><div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">=</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">yikes OMFG note models not good at tip pt</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/top-scientists-warn-of-an-amazon-tipping-point/2019/12/20"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/top-scientists-warn-of-an-amazon-tipping-point/2019/12/20</font></a></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">dec. 20, 2019 at 12:14 p.m. PST</font></div><div class="article-body"><div class="teaser-content"><section><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Deforestation and other fast-moving changes in the Amazon threaten to turn parts of the rainforest into savanna, devastate wildlife and release billions of tons carbon into the atmosphere, two renowned experts warned Friday<b>.</b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“The precious Amazon is teetering on the edge of functional destruction and, with it, so are we,” <b><span style="background-color: rgb(102, 255, 153);">Thomas Lovejoy of George Mason University </span>and Carlos Nobre of the University of Sao Paulo in Brazil, both of whom have studied the world’s largest rainforest for decades, wrote in an <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">editorial in the journal Science Advances.</span>“Today, we stand exactly in a moment of destiny: The tipping point is here, it is now.”</b></font></p></div></section></div><div class="remainder-content"><section><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 204, 102);">Combined with recent news that the thawing Arctic permafrost may be beginning to fill the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and that Greenland’s ice sheet is melting at an accelerating pace, it’s the latest hint that important parts of the climate system may be moving toward <b>irreversible changes at a pace that defies earlier predictions.</b></font></p><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(247, 247, 247);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>The speed of the transformation in some key systems, such as Greenland’s ice and the Arctic’s permafrost, has “indeed been underestimated by climate science</b>,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, the head of Earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “And that’s partly because we cannot really capture them well in our models.”</font></span></p></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b style="background-color: rgb(255, 204, 102);">In interviews, Lovejoy and Nobre said they decided to sound a dire alarm about the Amazon after witnessing the acceleration of troubling trends. The combination of rising temperatures, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/21/amazonian-rainforest-is-ablaze-turning-day-into-night-brazils-capital-city/?tid=lk_inline_manual_7" style="text-decoration-line: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213);">crippling wildfires </a>and ongoing land clearing for cattle ranching and crops has extended dry seasons, killed off water-sensitive vegetation and <u>created conditions for more fire.</u></b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy hide-for-print ma-0 mb-md interstitial italic" style="margin: 0px 0px 24px; line-height: 1.75;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/thermometers-climate-change/?tid=lk_interstitial_manual_8" style="text-decoration-line: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213);">How we know that global warming is real</a>]</font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b style="background-color: rgb(255, 204, 102);">The Amazon is 17 percent deforested, but for the large portion of it inside Brazil, the figure is closer to 20 percent. The fear is that soon there will be so little forest that the trees, which not only soak up enormous quantities of rainwater but also give off mist that aids agriculture and sustains innumerable species, won’t be able to recycle enough rainfall.At that point, much of the rainforest could decline into a drier savanna ecosystem. Rainfall patterns would change across much of South America. <u>Several hundred billion tons of carbon dioxide could wind up in the atmosphere, worsening climate change. And such a feedback loop would be tough to reverse.</u></b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b style="background-color: rgb(255, 204, 102);">That point of no return, commonly referred to by scientists as a tipping point, “is much closer than we anticipated,” Nobre said in an interview.</b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>The troubling news comes on top of other alarming developments regarding the Earth’s climate.</b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>This month, nearly 100 scientists <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/12/10/greenland-ice-losses-have-septupled-are-pace-sea-level-worst-case-scenario-scientists-say/?tid=lk_inline_manual_15" style="text-decoration-line: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213);">detailed how the Greenland ice sheet’s </a>losses have accelerated in recent decades, growing from 33 billion tons lost per year in the 1990s to a current average of 254 billion tons annually.</b></font></p></div><div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">Greenland is losing ice faster than expected, partly because <b>climate models aren’t good at predicting extreme melting events</b>, but also because many of the ice sheet’s smaller glaciers have started to speed up, too,</span>” said Andrew Shepherd, a glaciologist at the University of Leeds in Britain who led the latest study. “So the [worst]-case scenario now becomes business as usual."</font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Separately, a report this month from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration laid out evidence suggesting that the global Arctic already has become a net emitter of carbon dioxide because of the thawing permafrost. That would be a profound shift for a region that includes vast stretches of Alaska, Canada, Siberia and Greenland, and which has<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-siberia/?tid=lk_inline_manual_20" style="text-decoration-line: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213);"> long stored massive amounts of carbon </a>in its frozen soil.</font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>At the same time, a global die-off of coral reefs in 2016 and 2017, which included the loss of nearly half of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, shocked scientists.</b></font></p></div><div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“Compared to coral bleaching in 1998 and 2002, the 2016 event was much more extreme — hotter, far more extensive, and deadlier,” said Terry Hughes, an expert on the reef and the director of the ARC Center of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University in Australia. “The reef has changed forever."</font></p><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>While the speed of the changes involving the Amazon, permafrost and ice sheets has surprised experts, models that scientists created decades ago regarding the average global temperature have largely held true.</b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The world has experienced about 1 degree Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, of warming since the late 19th century, largely because of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.</font></p></div><div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">But much <b>of the Arctic<b> </b>has already warmed by 2 degrees Celsius and some regions even more.</b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b style="background-color: rgb(255, 204, 102);">The Amazon also is warming at an accelerated rate.</b> An analysis by The Washington Post of global temperature changes found that almost the entirety of Brazil has warmed by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, since the late 1800s.</font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Higher temperatures and deforestation are drying out parts of the Amazon and posing a fundamental threat to the rainforest.</b></font></p><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">In the southern Amazon dry season in particular, temperatures are <b>already 3 degrees Celsius higher than in the 1980s,</b> and the dry season is getting longer, exceeding four months in some regions, Nobre said.</font></p></div><div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Particularly worrying, he said, is a recent study showing how trees are faring in more than 100 locations across the Amazon. </b>Led by Adriane Esquivel Muelbert of the University of Leeds, researchers found forest transition has begun — trees accustomed to dry conditions are more likely to grow now while trees that require more moisture are disproportionately dying in places where climate changes are the greatest.</font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">Paulo Brando, a tropical ecologist and professor at the University of California at Irvine who has long studied the Amazon, said it is tricky to try to determine the tipping point.</font></p><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">"The definition of ‘tipping point’ can be quite broad,” Brando said, so it is difficult to say whether the Amazon has reached what scientists would call a point of irreversible change. But this much is clear, he added: “<b>We’re not moving away from that tipping point. We’re probably driving very fast toward that direction</b>.”</font></p></div><div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>The impact of changes to the Amazon reach far beyond South America. The rainforest stores an immense amount of carbon in its enormous trees, and if they die, that carbon is released.</b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>In a radically different part of the world, scientists last week described something eerily similar.</b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Ted Schuur, an expert on northern permafrost at Northern Arizona University, wrote in NOAA’s 2019 Arctic Report Card that recent studies suggest that the thawing of the permafrost — a repository for millennia of dead plant and animal remains — is likely to be contributing carbon dioxide to the atmosphere as those once-frozen materials begin to decompos.</font></p><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b style="background-color: rgb(255, 204, 102);">For the “science community at large,” Schuur said in an email, “this is a ‘surprising’ confirmation that the data show the Arctic currently acting as a carbon source.”</b></font></p></div><div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Schurr’s reasoning is based heavily on a groundbreaking study led by Susan Natali of the Woods Hole Research Center, research that is in many ways parallel to the new Amazon study. It pools the results from large numbers of scientists across the Arctic to show that in winter, permafrost soils are already emitting a lot of carbon. And those releases are probably enough to offset what happens in the growing season, when Arctic plant growth absorbs carbon.</font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>The models that scientists have used to try to determine how the Arctic region is processing carbon were too conservative when it came to losses in winter in particular,</b> Natali said<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">. As a result, the potential for a transition of the Arctic from a “sink” that takes up carbon to a “source” that emits it may have been underestimated.</span></font></p><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">"The models, they project that to be happening quite a ways out in the future, but I would say it’s happening now,” Natali said.</font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Occasional extreme heat events in the Arctic can cause abrupt hillside collapses or “thaw slumps,” which rapidly expose very old and deep permafrost to the open air. Meanwhile, worsening Arctic fires can quickly remove insulating soil and vegetation layers from large stretches of permafrost, suddenly exposing it to the sun.</b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“It’s like you’re opening the top of a cooler,” Natali said.</font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b style="background-color: rgb(255, 204, 102);">In combination, the Amazon and Arctic news underscores that even as humans are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/12/03/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-will-hit-yet-another-record-high-this-year-experts-project/?tid=lk_inline_manual_51" style="text-decoration-line: none; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213);">largely failing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions</a>, the Earth may increase such emissions yet further.</b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Still, it is possible to slow the transformation of the Amazon through reforestation, researchers said.</b></font></p></div><div><p class="font--body font-copy color-gray-darkest ma-0 pad-bottom-md undefined" style="margin: 0px; line-height: 1.75; padding-bottom: 24px;"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>“A tipping point is a way to talk about a moment of system shift or system change,” Lovejoy said. “In this case, it’s not going to be instantaneous, and that’s good news. It allows you to do something about it.</b>”</font></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></section></div></div><div><b><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"></font></b></div></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">=</font></div><div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">anomaly:</font></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">
</font></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/welcome</font></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">
</font></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Director</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Edward Maibach</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">
</font></div><div><h1 class="title" style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(16, 141, 163); text-transform: capitalize; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Edward Maibach</font></h1><div class="region region-content" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 12px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><div id="block-system-main" class="block block-system" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="content" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div id="node-30" class="node node-team-member clearfix" about="/our-team/edward-maibach" typeof="sioc:Item foaf:Document" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="content" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">
</font><div class="field field-name-field-team-member-department field-type-text field-label-hidden" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 5px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; width: 400px; background: transparent;"><div class="field-items" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="field-item even" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Director</font></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-team-title field-type-text-long field-label-hidden" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="field-items" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="field-item even" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.3em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"><i style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Professor</i>
Department of Communication
George Mason University</font></p></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-above" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="field-label" style="margin: 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Bio: </font></div><div class="field-items" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="field-item even" property="content:encoded" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.3em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Ed joined the George Mason University faculty in 2007 to create the Center for Climate Change Communication. Trained in public health and communication, he has extensive experience as an academic researcher and as a communication and social marketing practitioner in government, business, and the non-profit sector. His research focuses on the broad question of how public engagement in climate change can be expanded and enhanced.</font></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.3em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Ed is currently a Principal Investigator on several climate change education grants funded by the National Science Foundation, NASA, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, and Town Creek Foundation. He also currently serves on the National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee and advises a wide range of organizations on how to improve their climate change communication, education and outreach.</font></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.3em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Previously, Ed served as associate director of the National Cancer Institute, worldwide director of social marketing for Porter Novelli, co-chairman of the board for Kidsave International, and as a faculty member at Emory and George Washington universities. He has published over 100 peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters. His edited book Designing Health Messages earned a distinguished book award from the National Communication Association.</font></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.3em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">In 2010, Ed was awarded George Mason University’s highest honor: distinguished University Professor.</font></p></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-team-education field-type-text-long field-label-above" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="field-label" style="margin: 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Education: </font></div><div class="field-items" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="field-item even" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.3em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"><b>BA (’80), Social Psychology, University of California, San Diego</b>
MPH (’83), Health Promotion, San Diego State University
PhD (’90), Communication Research, Stanford University</font></p></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-team-selected-publications field-type-text-long field-label-above" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="field-label" style="margin: 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Selected Publications: </font></div><div class="field-items" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><div class="field-item even" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.3em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Smith, N., & Dawson, E. (2012). Climategate, public opinion, and the loss of trust. American Behavioral Scientist. , DOI: 10.1177/0002764212458272. Retrieve<a href="http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/images/files/Climategate_Public%20Opinion_and%20Loss%20of%20Trust%281%29.pdf" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(16, 141, 163); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"> the article here</a>.</font></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">
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</font></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><div><b><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Climate scientists need to set the record straight: There is a scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is happening</font></b></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">
</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Edward Maibach1,*, Teresa Myers1 and Anthony Leiserowitz2</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Article first published online: 7 MAY 2014</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">
</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">DOI: 10.1002/2013EF000226</font></div></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">
</font></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0004" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; border-image-source: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-width: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-color: transparent; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Human-caused climate change is happening and is accelerating; dangerous impacts are becoming evident around the world, and are projected to get worse in the decades to come, possibly much worse (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; border-image-source: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-width: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-color: transparent; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">IPCC</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0009" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0009" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; border-image-source: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-width: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; vertical-align: baseline; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-color: transparent; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">2013</a>). Nearly all climate scientists are convinced of these basic facts, but more than half of Americans do not currently understand that this scientific consensus has been reached (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; border-image-source: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-width: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-color: transparent; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Leiserowitz et al</em>.,<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0011" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0011" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; border-image-source: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-width: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; vertical-align: baseline; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-color: transparent; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">2013</a>).</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0005" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Americans are not alone in this regard, although relatively less is known about the views of people in other nations. While 57% of Britons aged 15 and older agreed with the statement “most scientists agree that humans are causing climate change” (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Poortinga et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0028" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0028" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2011</a>), a separate 16-nation World Public Opinion Poll (Public attitudes toward climate change: Findings from a multi-country poll, 2009, http://worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/btenvironmentra/649.php?lb=brglm&pnt=649&nid=&id=) found that only a minority of citizens in seven nations said “most scientists think the problem is urgent and enough is known to take action”; these were the United States (38%), Russia (23%), Indonesia (33%), Japan (43%), Brazil (44%), India (48%), and Mexico (48%). Across all 16 nations, 51% selected this response option, while 16% said “most (scientists) think the problem is not urgent, and not enough is known yet to take action,” and 24% said “views are pretty evenly divided,” another 10% indicated “don't know.” This public misperception about the state of scientific consensus regarding the reality and causes of climate change matters, a lot.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0006" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Different methods have been used to estimate the degree of scientific consensus about human-caused climate change—including surveys of experts (e.g., <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Doran and Zimmerman</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0004" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0004" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2009</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Cook et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0002" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0002" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2013</a>) and reviews of the peer-reviewed literature (e.g., <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Oreskes</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0023" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0023" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2004</a>;<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Anderegg et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0001" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0001" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2010</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Cook et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0002" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0002" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2013</a>). Both methods converge on the following conclusion: 97% or more of climate scientists are convinced that human-caused climate change is happening.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0007" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Yet widespread misunderstanding of this scientific consensus persists among the American public. In 2013, only 42% of American adults said that “most scientists think global warming is happening,” 33% said “there is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening,” 20% said they “don't know enough to say,” and 6% said “most scientists think global warming is not happening” (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Leiserowitz et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0012" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0012" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2014</a>). When asked to estimate the proportion of climate scientists who are convinced that human-caused climate change is happening (in quintiles), only 22% of American adults correctly selected 81%–100% (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Leiserowitz et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0012" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0012" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2014</a>).</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0008" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">This misperception among Americans is not only pervasive but also highly consequential (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Ding et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0003" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0003" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2011</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">McCright et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0020" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0020" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2013</a>). Those who do not understand the scientific consensus about human-caused climate change are, in turn, less likely to believe that climate change is happening, human-caused, will have serious consequences, and is solvable (i.e., can be mitigated through concerted action). In addition, not understanding this scientific consensus undermines Americans' support for a broad societal response to the threat. As a result, knowledge of the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change can be considered a “gateway” cognition; as members of the general public come to understand the consensus, they more likely come to the conclusion that human-caused climate change is happening and harmful.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0009" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">The pervasiveness of this misperception is not an accident. Rather, it is the result of a disinformation campaign by individuals and organizations in the United States—and increasingly in other nations around the world (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Norgaard</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0022" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0022" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2006</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Dunlap and McCright</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0005" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0005" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2011</a>)—who oppose government action to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Oreskes and Conway</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0024" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0024" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2010</a>). The claim that climate scientists are still arguing over the reality of human-caused climate change was designed to resonate with the sensibilities of political conservatives who are inherently suspicious of government intervention in markets and societies. This targeted disinformation campaign has been highly effective in the United States: far more political conservatives (49%) than liberals (18%) currently believe that there is “a lot of disagreement among the experts about global warming” (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Leiserowitz et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0011" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0011" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2013</a>). While originally launched in the United States, this disinformation campaign is now being pursued in Canada, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand as well (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Dunlap and McCright</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0005" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0005" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2011</a>).</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0010" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">This disinformation campaign has impeded the implementation of strategies to reduce the risks of climate change (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">McCright and Dunlap</em>,<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0019" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0019" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2003</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Pooley</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0027" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0027" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2010</a>). Moreover, as an intentional effort to obscure and dispute the conclusions of climate science, the campaign should be seen as an attack on climate science itself.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0011" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Fortunately, an effective, nonpolitical response is available to scientists and their professional societies. A recently published Australian study (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Lewandowsky et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0013" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0013" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2013</a>)—and a series of studies conducted at research centers in the United States (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Maibach et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0015" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0015" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2013</a>;<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Kotcher et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0010" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0010" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2014</a>)—demonstrates that clear messages that simply state the extent of the scientific consensus can help correct this widespread misperception. In controlled experiments, a single exposure to a message describing the extent of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change (i.e., 97%) significantly increased participants' subsequent estimates of the consensus—by as much as 10 to 20 percentage points. Importantly, these simple messages were most effective with the very people who are currently the least likely to understand the scientific consensus: political conservatives.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0012" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">The potential benefits of setting the record straight are considerable. By working to overcome this barrier to public understanding of climate change, scientists can help a broader cross section of American society—and perhaps people in other nations as well—to better understand the realities and risks of climate change, as well as the range of potential solutions. Furthermore, an effort to communicate the scientific consensus can also help bridge the (manufactured) divide between conservatives and liberals about the reality of human-caused climate change and help Americans begin the real debate about climate change—how the nation should best respond. Ideally, a debate about climate solutions should harness the best ideas of people across the political spectrum. Now is the time for citizens, together with government and industry leaders, to engage in a serious conversation about how to manage the risks of climate change.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0013" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">In the end, scientists cannot insist that the public accept the realities of climate change, but they can and should inform the public that based on the evidence, the vast majority of climate experts are convinced that human-caused climate change is happening. Because public understanding of climate change has been intentionally distorted by vested interests, the scientific community has an obligation to set the record straight.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0014" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Methods of effective scientific communication are well known in some parts of the scientific community (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">National Research Council</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0021" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0021" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">1989</a>;<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Maibach and Parrott</em>, 1995; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Hornik</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0008" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0008" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2002</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Wakefield et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0032" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0032" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2010</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Lundgren and McMakin</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0014" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0014" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2013</a>). The public health and medical communities, for example, have mounted highly effective campaigns to reduce sudden infant death syndrome (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Markestad et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0017" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0017" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">1995</a>), human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">McCombie et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0018" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0018" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2002</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Wellings</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0033" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0033" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2002</a>), stroke (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Roccella</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0029" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0029" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2002</a>), tobacco use among adults and teens (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Pierce et al</em>., <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0025" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0025" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2002a</a>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0026" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0026" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2002b</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Worden and Flynn</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0035" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0035" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2002</a>), and to promote seat belt use (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Williams et al</em>.,<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0034" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0034" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2002</a>). While each of these successful campaigns had unique circumstances, they all conformed to a relatively simple formula: <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">simple clear messages, repeated often, by a variety of trusted voices</em>.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0015" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">We urge scientific organizations to patiently, yet assertively inform the public that, based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate experts are convinced that human-caused climate change is happening. Some scientific organizations may argue that they have already done this through official statements. We applaud them for their efforts to date, yet survey data clearly demonstrate that the message has not yet reached or engaged most Americans. Occasional statements and press releases about the reality of human-caused climate change are unfortunately not enough to cut through the fog—it will take a concerted, ongoing effort to inform Americans about the scientific consensus regarding the realities of climate change.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0016" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"><em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Fischhoff</em> (<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0007" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0007" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2007</a>) suggests that climate change communication campaigns are best approached as a team effort between climate scientists (who best understand the nature of the risks and potential responses), social and decision scientists (who best understand how to structure information in a manner that is most helpful to members of the intended target audience), and communication professionals (who best understand how to get the information conveyed with sufficient reach and frequency that it will be noticed and considered by members of the target audience). This is a model that any scientific organization can implement by engaging their members, relevant social science colleagues, and in-house or consulting communication professionals.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0017" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Individual climate scientists can and should also play a role in setting the record straight. In media interviews, public presentations, and even neighborhood and family gatherings, climate scientists should remember that many people do not currently understand that there is an overwhelming scientific consensus about human-caused climate change. Tell them, and give them the numbers. Contextualize the numbers with your own experience, e.g., “I personally know hundreds of climate scientists who are convinced that human-caused climate change is happening, and not a single one who isn't.”</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0018" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background: transparent;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">This is not a call for scientists to become policy advocates, but rather a request that scientists take the initiative to inform the public about the empirically determined conclusions of their field—consistent with several recent prominent calls by climate scientists asking their peers to get more involved in public dialogue (<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Ellis and Trachtenberg</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0006" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0006" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2013</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Schmidt</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0030" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0030" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2013</a>; <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Mann</em>, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000226/full#eft231-bib-0016" class="referenceLink" title="Link to bibliographic citation" rel="references:#eft231-bib-0016" shape="rect" style="text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 126, 138); outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">2014</a>). There is a critical need to educate the public about one of the most fundamental and important facts to have emerged from climate science, that virtually the entire climate science community is now convinced, based upon the evidence, that human-caused climate change is happening. This may seem self-evident to many scientists; however, it is not yet understood by a majority of the American public.</font></p></div><div class="para" id="eft231-para-0019" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; line-height: 10px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; border: 0px; border-image-source: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-width: initial; border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 1.5em; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-color: transparent; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">Such an effort to set the record straight—through simple clear messages, repeated often, by a variety of trusted voices in the climate science community—will improve public understanding of, and engagement in, the issue of climate change. A large majority of Americans—across political lines—are willing to listen.</font></p></div></div><div style="font-size: small; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
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