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0.96 GT Avoided Grassland Conversation (by 2050, cumulative)
1 - Climate Change and Cities
1. Issue is not only abrupt climate change, but abrupt human change triggered by climate
1. An Abrupt-Change Early-Warning System
1. Clear and unyielding on the science, while accepting uncertainty
1. Freeman Dyson is widely cited as the earliest discussion of climate change mitigation through forestry
1. If Only We Knew What We Know - A Great Metaphor for Actionable Knowledge
1. If Only We Knew What We Know - A Great Metaphor for Actionable Knowledge
1. The Green Agenda in Hyperpartisan America
1. We may not like thinking about risk, but we need to
1. You can see key changes to the clock over time; climate change has been an important factor.
1.1 Climate Change Science - Climate Change and Cities
1.2 Climate Change Sources - Climate Change and Cities
1.3 Climate Change Effects and Impacts - Climate Change and Cities
1.4 Urbanization and Climate Change - Climate Change and Cities
1.5 Urban Drivers of Greenhouse Gases - Climate Change and Cities
1.6 Climate Change Effects and Impacts on Cities - Climate Change and Cities
1.65 GT Grazing - Animal Management (by 2050, cumulative)
1.7 Climate Change Policies - Climate Change and Cities
1.81 GT Agricultural Nutrient Management (by 2050, cumulative)
10. Center Green
10. Collected Tables and Figures tell a chronological story
10. Here's How We Built the Premium Access Climate Web to Facilitate Actionable Knowledge Access
10. The Premium Access Climate Web - Demonstrated Ability to Deliver Actionable Knowledge
10. What if we could do something "different" to that change that situation?
10.23 GT Conservation Agriculture (by 2050, cumulative)
10.84 GT Peatland restoration (by 2050, cumulative)
11. Compare the Premium Access Climate Web to Google!
11. Here's How We Built the Premium Access Climate Web to Facilitate Actionable Knowledge Access
11. What if we focused on getting the right climate information to the right person for Question #1?
11.34 GT Improved Rice Cultivation (by 2050, cumulative)
12. A Short Video Introduction to the Premium Access Climate Web and Actionable Knowledge
12. Center Green on Climate Change
12. What if we then focused on figuring out how to answer Question #2 at the level of individuals?
12.07 GT Trees in Croplands (by 2050, cumulative)
13. An In-Depth Explanation of How the Premium Access Climate Web Delivers Actionable Knowledge
13. What if we set this up using the best possible science and computers?
13.05 GT Tropical Plantations (to 2050, cumulative)
14. WARNING - This idea was used in creepy ways in 2016. So let's do better.
14. Why Actionable Knowledge is the Key to Solving Climate Change
14.08 GT Farmland Restoration (by 2050, cumulative)
16.34 GT Managed Grazing (by 2050, cumulative)
17.2 GT Tree Intercropping (by 2050, cumulative)
17.35 GT Conservation Agriculture (by 2050, agriculture)
17.46 GT Cropland Nutrient Management (by 2050, cumulative)
18.06 GT Afforestation Plantations (by 2050, cumulative)
18.65 GT Avoided Peat Impacts (by 2050, cumulative)
1856 Eunice Newton Foote theorizes that changes in CO2 could affect the Earth's temperature
1896 Svante Arrhenius - On the Influence of Carbon Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground
1938 G.S. Callendar - The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature
1955 Edward Teller tells American Chemical Society that fossil fuels might cause climate change
1957 Revelle Landmark study concludes that the oceans will not be able to absorb all the excess CO2
1958 Charles David Keeling begins charting CO2 concentrations in Hawaii
1965 Report of the President's Science Advisory Committee concluded international collaboration would be required
1967 James Hansen begins his study of Earth's atmosphere
1968 Gordon MacDonald paper exploring weather modification as a weapon
1968 SRI study for API concludes that "significant temperature changes" likely by the year 2000
1972 National Petroleum Council report concludes climate changes probably won't be apparent "until at least the turn of the century."
1977 Memo to President Carter noting that 5oC and "large scale crop failures" possible, but knowledge inadequate to take action
1977 Dyson_Can we control the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
1977 Wally Broecker predicts to AGU meeting that fossil fuel use will have to be restricted by tax or mandate
1978 EPA report suggests that fossil fuels could lead to "significant and damaging" changes to the atmosphere within 2-3 decades
1978 Exxon memo warns that humanity only has 5-10 years before "hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical."
1979 Charney report concluded a doubling of CO2 would lead to 1.5 - 4.5oC of warming
1979 Jason report forecasts doubling of CO2 by 2035, no later than 2060, with 2-3oC of temperature increase
1979 Myers_The sinking ark
1980 Exxon's Director of Research acknowledges need to account for climate change
1980 First Congressional Hearing on carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere
1980 NOAA scientist William Elliott notes that U.S. action to reduce carbon emissions will have very little impact on global outcomes
1981 Another Congressional Hearing on climate change convened by Al Gore
1981 CEQ report warns that fossil fuels could "permanently and disastrously" alter Earth's atmosphere
1982 Dan Rather devotes three minutes of the CBS Evening News to climate change
1982 James Hansen testifies before Al Gore's Committee
1983 EPA Releases pessimistic report "Can We Delay Greenhouse Warming?"
1983 Scenarios of SLR to 2100
1985 FAO_Tropical Forestry Action Plan
1988 32 climate bills introduced to Congress during the year, including the Global Warming Prevention Act and the National Energy Policy Act
1988 BP's President warns that climate change might require a "dramatic reduction in our dependence on fossil fuels."
1988 Exxon launches a new strategy to "emphasize the uncertainty in scientific conclusions regarding the potential enhanced greenhouse efffect."
1988 Independent Power Producer AES funds first carbon offset project
1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Formed
1988 James Hansen testifies on the hottest June 23rd in history that global warming is now observable.
1988 Royal Dutch Shell releases an internal briefing report concluding that "the energy industry needs to consider how to play its part," but that "the only effective way to tackle the problem is through international cooperation."
1988 UNEP and the WMO establish the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess the science and develop a global climate policy
1989 Industry launches the Global Climate Coalition
1989 Trexler_Forestry and Climate Change_Analysis of the Guatemala Agroforestry Project
1989 World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere calls for a 20% reduction in carbon emissions by 2005
1990 Trexler_Minding the Carbon Store: US Forestry Mitigation Options_WRI
1991 Countries since United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
1993 Brown_Tropical forests: Their past, present, and potential future role in the terrestrial carbon budget $$
1994 Dixon_Carbon Pools and Flux of Global Forest Ecosystems
1994 Potential for Carbon Uptake Through Agroforestry
1994 Potential for Carbon Uptake Through Forest Regeneration
1994 Potential for Slowing Deforestation to 2050
1994 Trexler - Keeping It Green
1994 Trexler_Keeping It Green Tropical Forestry
1994 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Enters into Force
1995 Cumulative contribution of climate change to SLR selected simulations
1996 Probability of Incremental SLR to add to baseline rate of SLR
1996 The IPCC's Second Assessment Report used WRI's 1994 study to assess tropical forestry mitigation potentials
1997 Kyoto Protocol Signed
1997 Trexler Climate + Energy_Biotic Offsets Assessment Workshop for EPA
2 - Defining and Assessing Urban Risk and Vulnerability
2. Only recently have we better understood the nature of abrupt changes in the geological record
2. But we've understood the challenges of tackling climate change for decades, so whereis the progress?
2. Concern over tropical deforestation itself dates back to the late 1970's, and resulted in the Tropical Forestry Action Plan in 1985
2. Ditch apocalyptic rhetoric, but don't ignore worst-case scenarios
2. There are well established principles for doing risk assessment
2. What Went Wrong - The Great Estrangement
2. When We Talk About "Climate Information" We're Covering A Lot of Ground
2. When We Talk About "Climate Information" We're Covering A Lot of Ground
2.1 Introduction to Defining Risk and Vulnerability - Defining and Assessing Urban Risk and Vulnerability
2.2 Approaches to Climate Change Vulnerability - Defining and Assessing Urban Risk and Vulnerability
2.3 What is social vulnerability? - Defining and Assessing Urban Risk and Vulnerability
2.4 Practical Examples of Calculating Social Vulnerability - Defining and Assessing Urban Risk and Vulnerability
2.45 GT Grazing - Optimal Intensity (by 2050, cumulative)
2.5 Risk and Vulnerability in African Cities - Defining and Assessing Urban Risk and Vulnerability
20.19 GT Tropical Staple Trees (by 2050, cumulative)
2000 The IPCC's Special Report on Land Use Change surveys the whole topic comprehensively
2001 Fearnside_Saving tropical forests as a global warming countermeasure: an issue that divides the environmental movement $$
2005 EPA GHG Mitigation Potential in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture
2005 Fung Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate
2005 Kyoto Protocol Enters into Force
2005 Moutinho_Tropical Deforestation and Climate Change
2006 Backstrand_Planting Trees to Mitigate Climate Change: Contested Discourses of Ecological Modernization, Green Governmentality and Civic Environmentalism
2007 Global risk severity (by number of deaths)
2007 Global risks landscape
2008 Angelsen_What is the right scale for REDD?
2008 Bellassen_Reducing emissions from deforestation What contribution from Carbon Markets
2008 Kindemann Global cost estimates of reducing emissions through avoided deforestation
2008 Nonprofit climate group 350.org established to help spur climate action
2008 Pirard_REDD-Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in non-Annex 1 Countries
2009 GCP_Little REDD+ Book
2009 IATA commits the aviation industry to halve emissions by 2050, relative to 2005
2009 Ornstein_Irrigated afforestation of the Sahara and Australian Outback to end global warming
2009 Putting today's sea levels in context
2011 Mercer Consulting advises that material physical climate risks are still decades away
2011 Mercer Consulting declares expected climate policies a material business risk
2011 Nikiforuk Empire of the Beetle
2011/6 NAS report - sea levels rising at fastest rate in 2000 years
2011/6 Supreme Court rules in AEP vs. Connectivut that power companies cannot be held liable for CO2 damages, since CO2 regulated by federal government
2011/7 Achieving a 2oC could require a $20 trillion write-off by oil and gas companies
2012 Estimates of projected sea level rise have been changing a lot
2012 Sea levels have risen very fast in the past - 65 ft in four centuries some 14,000 years ago
2012 USACE and NOAA SLR Curves 2012
2012/7 North Carolina lawmakers reject sea level rise predictions
2013 "Top choice" risk in each category
2013 900,000 Year Record of Sea Level Change
2013 Estimates of SLR in Maryland, 2050 and 2100
2013 Global risks landscape
2013 Kyoto Protocol Lapses
2013 Projections of potential sea level rise
2013 Risk differences by expertise
2014 Funk_Rocky Mountain Forests at Risk
2014 Global Risks by Gender
2014 Global risks landscape
2014 Global SLR to 2100
2014 Risk differences by gender
2014/8 Mapping of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets show astonishing ice loss in past five years
2015 An alternative approach to heat stress - wet bulb temp (35 degrees is a key threshold)
2015 And impacts on flowering of crops for example
2015 Busch_Deforestation With and Without Carbon Pricing
2015 Can estimates likelihood of rivers falling below flow levels
2015 Climate change will increase water stress levels for many
2015 Climate risks rises over time
2015 Committed SLR based on specific temperature thresholds
2015 Cropland under drought over time
2015 Drivers of forest loss in the tropics 20000-2010
2015 Earthquake risk is relatively constant
2015 Expert opinion on SLR by 2100 and 2300
2015 Expert opinion on SLR by 2100 and 2300
2015 Forecasted Deforestation Emissions to 2050
2015 Global risks landscape
2015 Global risks of highest concern next 18 months and 10 years
2015 Impact of Carbon Prices on Forecasted Forestry Emissions
2015 Infographic - beef subsidies in Brazil
2015 Infographic - timber subsidies Indonesia
2015 Infographic palm oil subsidies in Indonesi
2015 Infographic soy subsidies in Brazil
2015 IPCC crop yield estimates out to 2100
2015 Likelihood of 50% increase in annual area cropland affected
2015 Number of people flooded each year will grow substantially
2015 Paris Climate Agreement
2015 Plausible worst case impacts on drought
2015 Plausible worst case increase in # of people flooding in 2050
2015 Potential large scale disruptions could interact and cascade
2015 Potentially abrupt changes as defined in AR5
2015 Probability of 30-year floods will increase substantially
2015 Radioactivity risk declines over time
2015 REDD Finance vs. agricultural and biofuels subsidies in Brazil and Indonesia
2015 Risk of 50% increase in # of people flooded
2015 Risks for which least prepared regionally
2015 Scientific knowledge focuses on lowest levels of climate change
2015 Sleepability
2015 Sportability
2015 Survivability (day)
2015 Survivability (night)
2015 The commodities putting forests at risk
2015 There are feedbacks leading to climate change not routinely incorporated into climate estimates
2015 There is major uncertainty around many of these potential changes
2015 What about lethal temperature thresholds
2015 Workability
2015 Worst case for water stress by 2050?
2015/6 Climate change inaction is turning into a serious political liability for Republicans
2016 Distribution of sea level rise in 10,000 years based on lower emissions scenario
2016 Global risks landscape
2016 Highest concern business risk by country
2016 Houghton_Forests -- The Bridge to a Fossil Free Future
2016 Impact on countries and cities of 10,000 year SLR projection
2016 Pearson_Guidance Document Options for Nesting REDD+ Projects
2016 Scenarios developed for the Third NCA
2016 The 10 most changing risks
2016 Top 5 global risks next 18 months and 10 years
2016/9 First local government pension fund in the UK commits to full fossil fuel divestment
2017 Understanding the variables behind different SLR forecasts
2017 Angelsen_REDD+ as Resultâbased Aid: General Lessons and Bilateral Agreements of Norway $$
2017 CIFOR_CIFORs Global Comparative Study on REDD+ PPT
2017 Global SLR scenarios by decade and for 2200
2017 Griscom - Global Land-Use Mitigation Options
2017 Griscom_Natural climate solutions NCS to climate change
2017 Houghton_Negative emissions from stopping deforestation and forest degradation globally
2017 NCS as fraction of needed reductions by 2030, 37% through 2030, 20% through 2050, and 9% through 2100
2017 NCS mitigation potentials in 2030 - GT per year
2017 Project Drawdown (Land Use Only)
2017 Revised global SLR scenarios - 2016
2017 Vulnerable populations based on SLR scenarios
2017/12 Santa Cruz and Santa Cruz County file lawsuits in California Superior Court against 29 fossil fuel companies, 2019/1 Fossil Fuels on Trial: Where the Major Climate Change Lawsuits Stand Today
2018 Angelsen_Transforming REDD+ Lessons and new directions
2018 Five Reasons the Earth’s Climate Depends on Forests
2018 Sub-regional breakdown of estimated carbon emissions from deforestation 1990-2015
2018 The Global Risks Landscape 2018
2018 There is no one-size fits all to estimating agriculture-driven deforestation
2018 Tropical forest lost 2001 to 2017
2018/10 New York attorney general files fraud case against ExxonMobil for deceiving investors in risk disclosure
2018/2 13 kids sue Washington state for life, liberty and a livable climate
2019 Australian fire detections this decade
2019 Average global temperature 1850-2019
2019 Average global temperatures (by month) 1850 - 2019
2019 Bastin_The global tree restoration potential $$
2019 Climate change during your lifetime
2019 Global MACC curve for reforestation and avoided deforestation
2019 Global Risks Landscape
2019 How did daily U.S. temperatures devitate from the historical average?
2019 How much have maximum and minimum temperatures already changed?
2019 How much individual countries have warmed
2019 Impact of climate change on potential global tree cover to 2050
2019 Impact of climate change on potential global tree cover to 2050
2019 Potential to increase global tree cover given current climate
2019 Probability distributions H and L temperature, 2011 and 2300
2019 Short Term Risk Outlook
2019 Significant climate anomalies and events in 2019
2019 The emissions budget associated with different temperature targets
2019 The Evolving Risks Landscape 2009-2019
2019 The risk of disease outbreaks is increasing
2019 The temperature history of individual countries in stripes
2019 Top ten climate papers by social media attention
2019 Total global mean sea-level rise projections
2019 Trends in annual precipitation in Asheville, NC
2019 Trends in coal plant closures 2010 - 2025
2019 Visualizing average global temperature change 2040-2060
2019 Visualizing the December, 2019 European heat wave
2019 Visualizing the long tail of the probability distribution
2019/2 UK students join global strike over climate change crisis
2019/3 Greta Thunberg nominated for Nobel peace prize
2019/7 Vast swaths of lost tropical forest can still be brought back to life
2019/9 Redburn double-bumps ExxonMobil directly from Buy to Sell, in addition to downgrading other Majors
2019/9 The risk of a draconian policy response and disruption rises every year that policy makers don't act
2020 Accelerating climate change
2020 Arctic sea ice trends
2020 Australia's maximum annual temperature anomaly
2020 Australian average temperature trends 1910 - 2019
2020 Biosphere collapse trajectory
2020 Global Risks Landscape
2020 Global Shapers Risk Landscape
2020 Global temperature deviations by year and decade
2020 Land vs. Ocean temperatures 1850 - 2019
2020 Long-Term Risk Outlook
2020 Oil sector emissions by use
2020 Seeing 2020 as a turning-point for climate action
2020 Short-Term Risk Outlook
2020 The Evolving Risks Landscape 2007 - 2020
2020 Top Global Causes of Death (2017)
2020 U.S. Withdraws from Paris Climate Agreement
21.57 GT Peatlands (by 2050, cumulative)
22.61 GT Temperate Forest Restoration (by 2050, cumulative)
23.15 GT Regenerative Agriculture (by 2050, cumulative)
24.26 GT Natural Forest Management (by 2050, cumulative)
3 - Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience
3. Acknowledge that technological innovation is key, but don't put all the eggs in that basket
3. All Kinds of Decisions Call for Actionable Knowledge
3. All Kinds of Decisions Call for Actionable Knowledge
3. As of now we're on a high emissions pathway
3. Market Fundamentalism: The Antienvironmental Orthodoxy of the Right
3. The 3 phases of the forestry and climate change conversation
3. We're continually deluged by new climate reports, all with the same basic messaging
3.05 GT Avoided Woodfuel (by 2050, cumulative)
3.1 Introduction to Climate Change Adaption and Resilience - Climate Change Adaption and Resilience
3.13 GT Rice Intensification (by 2050, cumulative)
3.19 GT Coastal Wetland Protection (by 2050, cumulative)
3.2 How do cities adapt to climate change? Reactive adaptation - Climate Change Adaption and Resilience
3.3 How do cities adapt to climate change? Anticipatory adaptation - Climate Change Adaption and Resilience
3.33 GT Perennial Biomass Crops (by 2050, cumulative)
3.4 Climate Adaptation: different contexts and approaches - Climate Change Adaption and Resilience
3.49 GT Fire Management (by 2050, cumulative)
3.5 Conceptual tensions of urban resilience - Climate Change Adaption and Resilience
3.6 Urban climate resilience: from conceptual tensions to practice - Climate Change Adaption and Resilience4
3.63 GT Grazing - Legumes in Pastures (by 2050, cumulative)
3.7 Governance to reduce urban risk - Climate Change Adaption and Resilience
3.8 Key actors in reducing urban risk - Climate Change Adaption and Resilience
3.9 Climate and resilience programs in African cities - Climate Change Adaption and Resilience
31.19 GT Silvopasture (by 2050, cumulative)
4 Planning for Climate Change
4. But the Sheer Volume of Climate Information Continues to Increase Dramatically
4. Generous public support for basic research and development
4. Phase I - 1985 to 2000
4. The Sheer Volume of Climate Information Continues to Increase Dramatically
4. Uneasy About Growth The Anti-Capitalist Tendency in Environmentalism
4. We can point to many (!) potential climate risks
4. What would Einstein say about this situation?
4.06 GT Tropical Farm Forestry (to 2050, cumulative)
4.1 Introduction to Planning Approaches for Climate Change - Planning for Climate Change
4.2 Adhoc, strategic and mainstreaming approaches - Planning for Climate Change
4.3 Main Steps of Planning for Climate Change - Planning for Climate Change
4.37 GT Improved Rice Cultivation (by 2050, cumulative)
4.4 Planning for climate change in Kampala, Uganda - Planning for Climate Change
4.5 Climate Change Mitigation in Kampala City - Planning for Climate Change
4.6 Urban Adaption in Action: Experiences from Kampala - Planning for Climate Change
4.7 Barriers to Implementation of Climate Change Actions - Planning for Climate Change
4.8 Guiding Principles for City Climate Action Planning - Planning for Climate Change
46.35 GT Avoided Deforestation (by 2050, cumulative)
5 Decision Making Analysis for Climate Change
5. And There Are Big Barriers to Translating Information Into Changed Behaviors
5. Don't indulge in the wishful thinking that fossil fuels can disappear quickly
5. He might be frustrated by a bunch of things we keep doing over and over
5. In thinking about climate risk we shouldn't get caught up in detailed predictions
5. Phase II - 2000 to 2010
5. The Green Movement at Fifty
5. There are Plenty of Barriers
5.1 Introduction to Decision Support and Assessment Tools for Climate Change - Decision Making Analysis for Climate Change
5.2 Cost Effectiveness Analysis for Adaptation - Decision Making Analysis for Climate Change
5.3 The economic case for low carbon development - Decision Making Analysis for Climate Change
5.4 Climate change planning in Kigali, Rwanda - Decision Making Analysis for Climate Change
5.5 Multiple criteria analysis - Decision Making Analysis for Climate Change
5.50 GT Coastal Wetland Restoration (by 2050, cumulative)
5.6 Which decision support tool to use? - Decision Making Analysis for Climate Change
5.61 GT Grazing - Improved Feed (by 2050, cumulative)
5.7 Examples of MCA application - Decision Making Analysis for Climate Change
58.90 GT Tropical Forest Regeneration (by 2050, cumulative)
6. But there are several important things to remember about climate risk
6. Continue to participate in the international process, don't pitch it as a solution
6. Is Conservative Environmentalism Really Possible?
6. Phase III - 2015 to the present
6. So It Doesn't Help That Everyone is Seeking Their Own Actionable Knowledge
6. Then Come the Barriers to Internalizing Information
6. With more than 100 million concerned Americans, shouldn't we try something different?
6.19 GT Indigenous Land Management (by 2050, cumulative)
6.2 GT Tropical Forest Conservation (by 2050, cumulative)
61.23 GT Tropical Forest Restoration (by 2050, cumulative)
7. But what is it that people need to really commit to tackling climate change?
7. Doesn't Help That Everyone is Seeking Their Own Actionable Knowledge
7. Economic thinking is a bad way to approach climate risk thinking
7. Getting to Green Step One - Reconnecting Conservatives with Conservation
7. One Result is Suboptimal Business Decision-Making
7. Welcome increasing public interest in adaptation
7.22 GT Bamboo Reforestation (by 2050, cumulative)
7.3 GT Improved Plantations (by 2050, cumulative)
7.5 GT Biomass Energy (by 2050, cumulative)
7.51 GT Avoided Coastal Wetlands Impacts (by 2050, cumulative)
700 Million People Live in Major Flood Plains
79.67 GT Avoided Forest Conversion (by 2050, cumulative)
8. A lot of people have answered Question #1 in the affirmative, but many haven't yet
8. Another Result is Suboptimal Individual Decision-Making
8. Getting to Green Step Two A Philosophy that Puts People First
8. Moving forward, we need to continue to apply risk assessment principles
8. One Result is Suboptimal Business Decision-Making
8. The Bottom Line? Notwithstanding decades of effort, tropical deforestation has proven to be a very hard nut to crack.
83.52 GT Reforestation (by 2050, cumulative)
9. Another Bottom Line? A growing literature exists with respect to how climate change will disrupt forests (and mitigation potentials)
9. Another Result is Suboptimal Individual Decision-Making
9. But relatively few people have answered Question #2 in the affirmative
9. Getting to Green Step Three - Reforming the Green Movement
9.10 GT Biochar (by 2050, cumulative)
9.28 GT Multi-strata Agroforestry (by 2050, cumulative)
A 20m rise would flood massive areas
A different administration could return to EPA’s 2016 interpretation of the CAA and establish limits on the number of gliders that can be produced and on the type and model year of engines that could be installed into gliders. 15, 397
A holistic approach
A look at UK risks concluded indirect risks an order of magnitude greater than direct domestic impacts
A lot of people already living with water stress
A lot of work is needed to assess the likelihood of abrupt SLR from the ice sheets
A mass movement is the only solution - and can succeed
A mission focus
A national energy efficiency and renewable energy load repurchasing organization, created by Congress, could through better contracts improve liquidiy in the energy finance market 6, 179
A national energy efficiency and renewable energy load repurchasing organization, created by Congress, could through better contracts improve liquidiy in the energy finance market 6, 179
a. NRC's 2002 Abrupt Change report
a. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AMOC
About
Actionable Knowledge and Solutions Chess
All actors can call upon current AFV owners to educate new potential consumers 14, 379
All actors should address generational scale lifestyle changes by encouraging such changes that promote decarbonization, and head off the opposite 3, 109
All actors should make emissions reductions a core goal of all travel or aviation related policies 16, 436
All actors should make emissions reductions a core goal of all travel or aviation related policies 16, 436
All actors should make emissions reductions a core goal of all travel or aviation related policies 16, 436
All actors should promote strategies to reduce emissions from existing and new equipment and buildings, including monthly feedback and information campaigns 3, 107
All actors should promote strategies to reduce emissions from existing and new equipment and buildings, including monthly feedback and information campaigns 3, 107
All actors should promote strategies to reduce emissions from existing and new equipment and buildings, including monthly feedback and information campaigns 3, 107
All actors should promote strategies to reduce emissions from existing and new equipment and buildings, including monthly feedback and information campaigns 3, 107
All actors should promote strategies to reduce emissions from existing and new vehicles, e.g. through fuel use feedback devices and development of eco-driving education programs 3, 107
All actors should promote strategies to reduce emissions from existing and new vehicles, e.g. through fuel use feedback devices and development of eco-driving education programs 3, 107
All actors should promote strategies to reduce emissions from existing and new vehicles, e.g. through fuel use feedback devices and development of eco-driving education programs 3, 107
All actors should promote strategies to reduce emissions from existing and new vehicles, e.g. through fuel use feedback devices and development of eco-driving education programs 3, 107
Amazon forests the tropical system potentially most vulnerable to abrupt change
AMOC disruption "much less likely under mondern boundary conditions than during the ice age"
An economic approach to climate change is a dead end
and general permits for NETs that will likely have either small or controlled impacts. 29, 767
And the heat meter, which can be expressed in several differen ways
Another version of a carbon budget clock, but one that isn't embeddible
Anticipating the potential for climatically-induced abrupt climate change is very difficult
Aviation Sector
b. Ice Sheets and Sea Level
b. Lenton's "tipping points"
Be very careful about misreading model results
Behavior Change
Biggest potential for rapid melting is where ice sheets flow rapidly into deeper water
Biggest questions involve mass loss of ice into the oceans
Black Carbon Emissions
Blockadia is gathering steam
Building developers and purchasers should commit to only building ZEBs no later than 2030 10, 275
Building developers should build to LEED certification, focusing on energy strategies 10, 275
Building owners should ensure that new buildings use renewable energy through on-site generation, PPAs, or RECs 10, 276
Building owners should take full LC costs into account when deciding on energy efficiency measures 10, 275
Business action and climate capitalism has been proven a dead end
But it's "unlikely that the AMOC will collapse before the end of the 21st century
But the models are probably not very good
But there are dangers in averaging data as done above
c. IPCC's crossing a threshold to a new regime
CA should continue to strengthen state mobile source standards 32, 861
CA should sue EPA to protect its CAA waiver if necessary 32, 860
Can anticipate increases in water stress probability
Can biomass and alternatives displace diesel and jet fuel?
Can renewables dramatically expand in deployment?
Can we eliminate use of petroleum in passenger vehicles
Center Green requires that progressives spend money more strategically
Changes to OMZs could be abrupt due to crossing thresholds
Cities
Cities should adopt and enforce city building energy efficiency codes unless preempted by state law 9, 245
Cities should adopt policies that retrofit and electrify their existing buildings 11, 293
Cities should consider establishing emissions and sustainability policies that include energy-efficiency goals 9, 245
Cities should develop an integrated suite of energy efficiency policies containing a full suite of complementary policies, including minimum standards, voluntary labeling, incentives, and other decarbonization policies 9, 219 232 247
Cities should establish city tax deductions or credits for energy-efficient equipment 9, 245
Cities should finance energy efficiency programs 9, 245
Cities should work with DOE to assess and install efficient outdoor lighting 9, 250
Cities with public transport and bike lanes should consider beasibility of banning older IEC vehicles during peak traffic hours 14, 381
Climate action is the best hope for a better future for many
Climate change another major stressor to the system
Climate change risk assessment should report to highest decision-making authorities
Combined with the public's discounting of low probability risks, will have very negative outcome
Communicators need to emphasize "trust qualities" - independence, values, accountability
Communicators should be emotionally honest - talking openly about hopes, fears, anxieties
Communicators should tell personal stories, especially if have come to conviction from a position of doubt
Companies
Concern is over expansion of Oxygen Minimum Zones OMZs
Concluding Comments - biggest challenge is interactions of risks
Congress can reduce barriers to NETs by allowing use of eminent domain for land needed for such projects 29, 767
Congress could adopt a tax treatment for low-carbon energy projects tied to actual sale or use of low-carbon power supplies 23, 612
Congress could adopt any economy wide carbon trading or tax measure, including aviation 16, 431
Congress could create a new climate-based aviation tax 16, 432
Congress could earmark transitional funds for states with the largest carbon deficits 23, 614
Congress could expand national forests by acquiring land rendered economically unproductive by climate change 31, 833
Congress could extend condemnation power to private parties for industrial scale NET operations, with strong oversigh and protections 29, 767
Congress could increase fuel taxes for domestic aviation 16, 432
Congress could increase taxes on international flights leaving U.S. 16, 432
Congress could increase taxes on passenger tickets 16, 432
Congress could legislate favorable waivers or expedited reviews of NET projects, similar to those for CERCLA 29, 767
Congress could mandate consideration of climate change and mitigation in the federal public land system, including carbon storage maximization 31, 833
Congress could require airlines to use a growing biofuels mix 16, 434
Congress could require consideration of resilience measures for federal pubic land systems 31, 833
Congress should adopt a national clean energy standard that includes energy efficiency and a national market for traded credits 23, 613
Congress should adopt a national ZEV mandate 23, 614
Congress should adopt the Master Limited Partnerships Parity Act to extend to favorable tax treatment for renewable energy, storage, and demand reduction projects 23, 612
Congress should adopte future tax credits based on decarbonization benefits associated with new investments 23, 612
Congress should allow NET R&D and limited deployment to occur without significant delays from EIRs 29, 768
Congress should apportion aviation tax revenues to support international development to help mitigate impacts on developing countries 16, 443
Congress should authorize NHTSA and EPA to adopt credit multipliers for fuel efficiency standards to encourage ZEV alternatives such as electrification 23, 614
Congress should clarify authorization of federal agencies such as EPA, FERC, and DOI to support pricing the carbon attributes of energy resources 23, 612
Congress should clarify that states can adopt more ambitious ZEV standards than federal goals 23, 614
Congress should consider a "frequent flyer levy" to address equity concerns with avaiation emissions measures 16, 443
Congress should consider a carbon tax or cap and trade program that allows private forest capture as offsets, and taxes deforestation 31, 843
Congress should consider a national carbon tax to encourage low-carbon energy investment 23, 612
Congress should consider liability protections for NET operators meeting criteria 29, 768
Congress should consider require consideration of carbon costs in regulatory impact assessments and cost benefit analysis 23, 612
Congress should create a carbon tax and create a CO2 trading regime in which forest and soil carbon sequestration is included 31, 834
Congress should expand ecosystem service payment programs to emphasize the co-benefit of carbon storage 31, 834
Congress should expand REITs to include low-carbon energy projects related to building efficiency and renewable power investments 23, 612
Congress should expand the scope of the CAA to include aviation emissions if future EPA regulation of aviation is struck down by the courts 16, 434
Congress should fund community colleges and others to train professionals in high efficiency, ZEB, LEED, and passive buildings 10, 273
Congress should impose carbon pricing to expressly allow NET operators to obtain a financial return on CO2 captures from the atmosphere 29, 769
Congress should include environmental risks in determining which investments quality for tax-exempt bond financing, and expand tax exempt bond financing to green bond activities that meet a carbon benefit test 23, 612
Congress should legislate PACE program support through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 23, 612
Congress should legislate that residential solar PV and other resources presumptively qualify for benefits under PURPA 23, 614
Congress should phase out favorable tax treatment for fossil fuel resources, and extend favorable tax treatments for energy consumption reduction investments 23, 612
Congress should preserve renewable energy tax incentives to advance decarbonization and electrification of new buildings 10, 272
Congress should repeal the EU ETS Probition Act 16, 441
Congress should require EIA to annually report progress towards electric sector decarbonization 23, 614
Congress should require federal agencies to consider the future impacts of climate change on forests 31, 834
Congress should review aviation taxes and charges to assess adequacy in light of aviation's climate impact 16, 432
Congress should review aviation taxes and charges to assess adequacy in light of aviation's climate impact 16, 432
Congress should review aviation taxes and charges to assess adequacy in light of aviation's climate impact 16, 432
Congress should significantly boost funding to support NET research proposals 29, 767
Connection between extreme climate and abrupt change is poorly understood
Conservatives correctly understand that climate change is their ultimate threat
Creating the right conditions for market entry
Current models leave a lot out at higher temperature ranges
d. 2008 USCCSP report
Distribution of answers reflected in the landscape graphic
Divestment is a critical symbolic first step
DOE should continue providing guidance to consumers by maintaining updated versions of programs such as Energy Star for appliances and electrical equipment, and Energy Star for buildings. 10, 272
DOE should continue setting leading-edge energy-efficiency standards for heating, cooling, lighting, and other energy-consuming equipment used in new buildings. 10, 272
DOE should encourage through its work on ZEBs direct investment in the means of production of renewables or power purchase agreements as preferable to purchase of RECs. 10, 272
DOE should encourage use of the most efficient sources and location of renewable energy for ZEBs rather than emphasizing only on-site generation. 10, 272
DOE should fund research of innovative ways for buildings to capture as much wind and sunlight as possible within the confines of urban environments to generate decarbonized electricity. 10, 272
DOE should produce a model ZEB-focused energy code. 10, 273
DOT’s Essential Air Service program could take into account communities that will be isolated by rising price of aviation as climate policies are implemented while ensuring that it minimizes emissions. 16, 443
e. NRC's 2012 Climate and Social Stress Report
Eight Commandment - Avoid Mission Creep
Emissions likely to follow a medium to high pathway under BAU
Energy Pricing
Environmental variables
EPA can adopt general permits for NETs that will likely have either small or predictable and controlled impacts to the environment. 29, 767
EPA can adopt standardized approval and review procedures for NETs that use common procedures or similar physical designs 29, 767
EPA can explore whether to reduce permitting barriers or environmental review disincentives for laboratory research or limited field testing of NETs. 29, 767
EPA could consider use of NET removal of CO2 as an alternative control strategy to consider during selections of BACTs for PSD permits to control emissions of other regulated pollutants. 29, 769
EPA could let a facility offset its CO2 emissions from one of its facilities through that operator’s use of NETs at a different location within the United States. 29, 769
EPA could promote investigation and deployment of NETs through incorporating them into GHG control permit requirements and emission control standards. 29, 769
EPA could promote reuse of captured CO2 by determining that CO2 captured through NETs would not constitute a pollutant under CWA or CAA or a discarded hazardous waste or substance under RCRA or CERCLA. 29, 769
EPA could promote reuse of captured CO2 by determining that CO2 captured through NETs would not constitute a pollutant under the CWA or CAA or a discarded hazardous waste or substance under RCRA or CERCLA. 29, 769
EPA should adopt a CO2 emissions standard for aircraft that includes a benchmark intensity system with tradable permits. 16, 433
EPA should adopt and implement the International Civil Aviation Organization CO2 standard as domestic law. 16, 425
EPA should consider a “frequent flyer levy” in the United States when measures it proposes to reduce aviation emissions raise significant equity concerns. 16, 443
EPA should consider adopting the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation into domestic law. 16, 440
EPA should continue providing guidance to consumers by maintaining programs such as Energy Star for appliances and electrical equipment, and for buildings. 10, 272
EPA should craft regulatory options to allow NET research and limited deployment to occur without significant delays from permitting disputes or protracted environmental impact reviews. 29, 768
EPA should strengthen federal standards for fine PM as a strategy to reduce black carbon emissions. 32, 857
EPA should use existing CAA authority to create an auction cap-and-trade program giving credit for carbon sequestration in forests, forest products, and soils 31, 837
EPA should use existing CAA authority to create an auction cap-and-trade program giving recognition that use of low-use wood from sustainably managed forests will not add CO2 to the atmosphere. 31, 837
EPA should use the definition of BACT to push sources that propose to use dirty fuels, such as coal and diesel, to replace them with cleaner fuels, such as renewable energy, biogas, and biodiesel. 32, 860
f. Defining abrupt change in this report
FAA could redesign its Voluntary Airport Low Emissions Program to ensure that mitigation and adaptation to climate change are core program priorities. 16, 435
FAA could review all the taxes and charges placed on the aviation industry with the objective of considering whether they are adequate in light of aviation’s climate impact. 16, 432
FAA could review all the taxes and charges placed on the aviation industry with the objective of considering whether they are adequate in light of aviation’s climate impact. 16, 432
FAA could review all the taxes and charges placed on the aviation industry with the objective of considering whether they are adequate in light of aviation’s climate impact. 16, 432
FAA should consider a “frequent flyer levy” in the United States when measures it proposes to reduce aviation emissions raise significant equity concerns. 16, 443
FAA should consider a “frequent flyer levy” in the United States when measures it proposes to reduce aviation emissions raise significant equity concerns. 16, 443
FAA should consider a “frequent flyer levy” in the United States when measures it proposes to reduce aviation emissions raise significant equity concerns. 16, 443
FAA should reconsider its guidelines on state aviation taxes and redesign them to allow states to adopt appropriate taxes to reduce aviation emissions. 16, 443
FAA should reconsider its guidelines on state aviation taxes and redesign them to allow states to adopt appropriate taxes to reduce aviation emissions. 16, 443
FAA should reconsider its guidelines on state aviation taxes and redesign them to allow states to adopt appropriate taxes to reduce aviation emissions. 16, 443
Fact is that almost nothing has a significant impact on global GDP, even if morally very important
Federal agencies could explore possibility of offering liability protections for negative emissions technology operators that meet size, operational, and safety requirements. 29, 768
Federal agencies should continue implementing “Guiding Principles for Federal Leadership in High Performance and Sustainable Buildings” adopted pursuant to EO 13423 that requires energy monitoring that provides at least daily data on energy use. 10, 272
Federal agencies should implement requirement in EISA that federal buildings reduce fossil fuel use measured against 2003 benchmark by 100% by 2030, and the goal that new commercial buildings achieve zero net energy by 2030. 10, 272
Federal Government Executive Branch
Federal govt. should authority to require carbon performance information on energy projects whenever possible 6, 177
Federal govt. should fund programs to replace wood burning stoves with zero-emission replacements 32, 876
Federal govt. should lead in UNFCCC to set aviation sector goal in light of Paris temperature goals 16, 441
Federal govt. should make emissions reductions core to all travel and aviation policies 16, 435
Federal govt. should negotiate air service agreements to allow taxation of fuel in international aviation 16, 440
Federal govt. should negotiate air service agreements to allow taxation of fuel in international aviation 16, 440
Federal govt. should negotiate air service agreements to allow taxation of fuel in international aviation 16, 440
Federal govt. should prioritize demand reduction and operations to reduce flight emissions over actions that could increase non-CO2 GHGs 16, 442
Federal govt. should promote generational-scale lifestyle changes to promote decarbonization, and head off the reverse 3, 109
Federal govt. should promote reduced emissions from existing and new home equipment and buildings, including monthly feedback and information campaigns 3, 107
Federal govt. should promote reduced emissions from existing and new vehicles, e.g. fuel use feedback devices and eco-driving eduction 3, 107
Federal govt. should reduce barriers to NETs while protecting public safety 29, 767
Federal govt. should require companies to consider the possibility their investments will be stranded 24, 644
Federal govt. should support NETs in conjunction with other decarbonization strategies 29, 766
Federal govt. should use tax policy to encourage companies and individuals to manage forestland to sequester carbon 31, 844
Federal govt. should use tax policy to encourage companies and individuals to manage forestland to sequester carbon 31, 844
Federal govt. should use tax policy to encourage companies and individuals to manage forestland to sequester carbon 31, 844
Federal govt. should work with EU on joint aviation emissions reduction measures 16, 441
Federal land management agencies could implement climate change mitigation and adaptation programs through broad, discretionary authority provided by existing organic acts. 31, 833
Federal land management agencies should develop prescribed burn protocols and land management strategies to minimize the net warming caused by emissions of fine PM and CO2. 32, 877
Federal land managers should conduct regional research to understand how black carbon emissions contribute to warming. 32, 877
FERC can require that wholesale rates include a carbon adder set at a level intended to reflect the social cost of carbon. 24, 630
Few impacts have been studied at higher temperature levels
Fifth Commandment - Accept Capitalism
Fire could turn into a mechanism for rapid carbon release
First Commandment - Tell the Truth, Admit Uncertainty, Be Humble
Five hallmarks of Center Green
For non-road sources already subject to regulation, EPA should assess whether fine PM emissions controls could be strengthened and, if so, EPA should enact new regulations with more stringent emissions controls. 32, 858
Forest Stewardship Council should include standards to maximize the potential for forestry CCS 31, 843
Fossil fuel companies should end management incentives based on hydrocarbon production and reserve indicators 24, 646
Fossil fuel companies should have to disclose how they would transition to a 2oC carbon pricing regime, and what will happen to their business models and assets in a 2oC world 24, 645
Fourth Commandment - Accept the Imperative of Growth
Global and local SLR are vey different things
Great Books
GSA should fully implement EISA requirement that federal buildings reduce fossil fuel use measured against a 2003 benchmark by 100% by 2030, and meet goal that new commercial buildings achieve zero net energy by 2030. 10, 272
GSA should retain its 2016 Facilities Standards that require all new federal buildings to attain LEED Gold (Version 4) certification, as a minimum. 10, 272
GUIDED TOUR: RESOURCES FOR VISUALIZING CLIMATE CHANGE
Heat stress already a significant source of death and illness
Heat stress can manifest across several human spheres
Hi-tech solutions to climate change are a dead end
How "failure of climate change adaptation" links to other risks
How can we avoid use of low-priced fossil fuels even if economic incentives exist to use them?
How fast can large-scale energy infrastructure be built?
How has abrupt change been defined in this and other reports?
How SLR and temperature have varied in the past
I love the countdown clock, and it's downloadable as an iFrame
If a state’s utility regulation does not allow power purchase agreements for supplying new buildings with renewable energy, state legislatures should authorize purchases to facilitate movement to low-carbon electrification for heating and hot water as part of the net-zero building process. 10, 273
If bans are not feasible, state legislatures should set seasonal restrictions to time agricultural burning to weather conditions that may lessen the warming impact of black carbon. 32, 877
If climate change disclosure litigation is resolved favorable to Massachusetts attorney general, the Massachusetts AG should require securities disclosures to include discussion of possible asset stranding related to climate regulation. 24, 645
If climate change disclosure litigation is resolved favorable to New York attorney general, the NY AG should require securities disclosures to include discussion of possible asset stranding related to climate regulation. 24, 645
If state legislation is unclear regarding “need” and “public use,” state PUCs can interpret those terms to encompass regional need and regional public use as well as clean energy goals within the state or region. 20, 543
If the federal government does not do so, state PUCs should compile all building, fire, and other installation requirements into one consolidated source that reconciles inconsistencies. 19, 507
Important to apply general principles of risk management
Important to broaden participation in the risk assessment process
Important to understand risk, even if we don't like the answer
Improved scale
In 2004 an observational system was put into place for continuous measurement of AMOC
In cost-of-service rate-regulated environments, state PUCs can ease financing burdens by allowing early cost recovery through rates for new nuclear plant development costs. 21, 561
In the absence of legislative action, state PUCs should agree with state environment and energy agencies to clarify respective roles in permitting renewable gas-gathering pipelines and provide for greater cooperation to extent allowed by law. 26, 686-687
Increase in 100-year flooding events based on 1 meter SLR
Individuals could purchase very high quality offsets when they decide to fly 16, 437
Individuals could purchase very high quality offsets when they decide to fly 16, 437
Individuals could purchase very high quality offsets when they decide to fly 16, 437
Individuals could purchase very high quality offsets when they decide to fly 16, 437
Information Disclosure and Labeling
Instead of employing a quasi-judicial approach, state PUCs should structure decisionmaking on rates and other policies to encourage participation by all interested parties and broad forward-planning perspectives. 19, 505
International cooperation
Is carbon storage feasible at large scale?
JH - "Groupishness" is generally good. And generally doesn't result in a lot of antagonism toward other groups.
JH - America has gone from being diverse localities to being lifestyle enclaves
JH - As Machiavelli said, what people believe about us is more important than reality.
JH - Demonizing makes the nation weaker.
JH - Find me one piece of evidence to support my view. Google makes it really easy.
JH - Hard to run a good society without loyalty, authority, sanctity
JH - Have to understand the other side isn't crazy
JH - Individual reasons is post-hoc and justificatory. The only cure for confirmation bias is other people. If you can bring people together to reason that can lead to change!
JH - It all goes back to President Johnson signing the civil rights act - a huge shift in which South went Republican.
JH - Nice to believe that "if we could just reason" we'd get to the truth, but not true. So you can't make reason "sacred" because that's not what reason for.
JH - Once you "sacralize" something you're stuck, and it's hard to question.
JH - The baby boomers have much more trouble agreeing and compromising than the previous generation.
JH - The left has fallen down in making the case for what's wrong and how to do better
JH - The parable of the ants and the grasshopper.
JH - We demonize but we're often wrong
JH - We need to do something about fact that Congress is bought and paid for.
JH - You have to maintain alliances and reputation.
Juxtaposing climate, earthquake, and radioactivity risks
Key
Key technology questions for future emissions levels
Land Use Sector
Lecture contents
Local govts. can incentivize carbon sequestration on corporate and private lands through tax deducations and credits 31, 844
Local govts. can incentivize carbon sequestration on corporate and private lands through tax deducations and credits 31, 844
Local govts. can incentivize carbon sequestration on corporate and private lands through tax deducations and credits 31, 844
Local govts. could assist in acquiring conservation easements for afforestation through dedicated taxes and bond funds 31, 844
Local govts. should adopt advanced building and energy codes to drive down carbon use within the authority granted to them under state rules 10, 274
Local govts. should adopt citywide carbon budgets that includes the carbon impact for new buildings 10, 275
Local govts. should adopt comprehensive sustainability programs that including GHG reduction plans and incorporate forestland conservation, acquisition, and management 31, 843
Local govts. should consider deplying alternative energy supplier for rural communities in the norther parts of the country 32, 876
Local govts. should consider or expand the use of district heading systems 10, 275
Local govts. should decarbonize their own utility systems they own or operate 10, 275
Local govts. should develop and fund wood-burning stove replacement programs in favor of low or zero-emission replacement 32, 876
Local govts. should develop wood-stove replacement programs with funding to enable low-income areas to accelerate turnover 32, 876
Local govts. should enact building restrictions prohibiting builders from including fireplaces and woodstoves, or at least requiring state-of-the-art woodstoves 32, 876
Local govts. should expand publicy owner forests, focusing on private lands rendered economically unproductive by climate change 31, 833
Local govts. should inform farmers about the benefits of alternative practices and consider economic incentives to achieve higher compliance rates 32, 877
Local govts. should mandate that new commercial buildings of a certain size achieve the equivalent of at least LEED Gold 10, 274
Local govts. should mandate, promote, or incentivize investments in diesel-free or cleaner diesel engines 32, 867
Local govts. should prohibit idling of all vehicles, in particular heavy-duty vehicles 32, 866
Local govts. should regulate urban and suburban forests to conserve land and enhance carbon sequestration 31, 843
Local govts. should require energy use disclosures for larger commercial buildings, and require that benchmarking information is publicly available 10, 274
Local govts. should require reporting of carbon performance for energy projects under their jurisdiction 6, 177
Local govts. should switch when feasible to district heading and cooling 10, 275
Local govts. should utilize dedicated taxes to acquire and manage forestlands to maximize their ability to sequester carbon 31, 843
Massive increases in flood damage for 136 largest coastal cities by 2050
May already be impossible to avoid more than 10 meters of SLR
Methane hydrates in the ocean
Miami under 1m SLR
Modeling the response of ocean hydrates to climate change is in its infancy
Models forecast tipping points based on several variables
Models have been used to investigate AMOC, but analysis concluded they wouldn't simulate a change even if likely
Most methane would not reach the surface as methane
Much of upper permafrost expected to thaw within a century
Need to accelerate technology progress
Need to improve the disclosure of risk
Need to incentivize long-term investment
Need to price carbon
Net Zero Technologies
New Buildings
Ninth Commandment - Connect and Mobilize
Not much has changed between IPCC AR5 and AR4
Observations and modeling show that a much faster SLR is possible than observed recently
Omission bias leads to low estimates
OMZs are not well represented in GCMs, and monitoring is needed
Ongoing monitoring of the AMOC is important
Other related visualizations include the Doomsday Clock, which factors in climate inaction
Oxygen Content in the Global Ocean
Oxygen levels are already falling
Paleoclimate data suggests that major ice sheets can't survive above 400 ppm
Permafrost and peat have accumulated huge quantities of carbon
Potentially Abrupt Changes in Ecosystems (table)
Potentially Abrupt Changes in High Latitudes (table)
Potentially Abrupt Changes in the Atmosphere (table)
Potentially Abrupt Changes in the Ocean (table)
Private actors should adopt RPS and increase to beyond 50% 23, 610
Private actors should promote emissions reductions from new and existing buildings and homes, e.g. through monthly feedback and information campaigns 3, 107
Private landowners could draft conservation easements to encourage forest management for carbon capture 31, 844
Private partices should document the broad impacts of CAA grandfathering and make recommendations for reform 32, 874
Private parties and public entities could use litigation to abate nuisances from black carbon emitters 32, 874
Private sector could require companies to consider possibility their fossil fuel assets could be stranded 24, 644
Public Utility Commissions
Purchasing and Procurement
Recommendations for applying the principles of risk assessment
Recommendations for Continuing Risk Assessment
Risk of Abrupt Change
Risk of Drought
Risk of River Flooding
Risk of Water Stress
Risk Reduction - Elements of a Proportionate Response
Risks of Global SLR
Risks of Heat Stress to people
Risks of SLR for Coastal Cities
Risks to Crop Production
River flooding is the most serious weather hazard
Scientists need to adopt a more risk-sensitive analytical approach
Scientists tend to avoid Type 1 error, and accept Type 2 error
Second Commandment - Be Hopeful and Articulate a Positive Vision
Setting the stage for exploring sea level rise forecasts
Seventh Commandment - Make the Moral Case for Conservation
Shareholders can press fossil fuel companies to make greater disclosures 24, 645
Sixth Commandment - Business is Not the Enemy
So what do we want to avoid?
State agencies should promote programs like LEED that recognize buildings for meeting energy-efficiency goals 10, 274
State agencies should promote programs like LEED that recognize buildings for meeting energy-efficiency goals 10, 274
State agencies should promote programs like LEED that recognize buildings for meeting energy-efficiency goals 10, 274
State agencies should provide information on ways to minimize the costs of ZEBs 10, 274
State agencies should provide information on ways to minimize the costs of ZEBs 10, 274
State agencies should provide information on ways to minimize the costs of ZEBs 10, 274
State agencies should provide training opportunities through community colleges, universities, vocational schools, and other educational institutions on high-efficiency and ZEB construction practices, as well as passive solar techniques. 10, 274
State agricultural agencies should conduct outreach to farmers about the benefits of alternative practices and potentially offer economic incentives to achieve higher compliance rates. 32, 877
State and local govts. should adopt separate energy-efficiency mandates for utilities to reduce total and peak consumption 23, 610
State and local govts. should adopte separate energy efficiency mandate with utilities to reduce total and peak consumption 23, 610
State and local govts. should use procurement powers to incentivize diesel-free or cleaner diesel engines 32, 867
State and local govts. should use procurement powers to incentivize diesel-free or cleaner diesel engines 32, 867
State and local govts. should use procurement powers to incentivize diesel-free or cleaner diesel engines 32, 867
State and local govts. should use their procurement powers to promote diesel-free or cleaner diesel engiens 32, 867
State energy agencies can consider adopting regulations to cost effectively control venting, flaring, and leaks from well sites. 33, 885
State energy-efficiency action should be coordinated with all other stakeholders' actions 9, 219
State environmental agencies can explore whether to reduce permitting barriers or environmental review disincentives for laboratory research or limited field testing of NETs. 29, 767
State environmental agencies charged with developing mitigation plans to receive Volkswagen settlement funds should ensure that settlement funds are deployed as strategically and effectively as possible. 32, 870
State environmental agencies could promote deployment of NETs through incorporating them into GHG control permit requirements and emission control standards. 29, 769
State environmental agencies could promote reuse of captured CO2 as a feedstock or commercial product by issuing guidance or a regulatory determination that CO2 captured through NETs would not constitute a pollutant or waste under other federal environmental statutes if reused. 29, 769
State environmental agencies should conduct regional research to understand how black carbon emissions contribute to warming. 32, 877
State environmental agencies should consider incorporating conservation tillage programs and bans or restrictions on agricultural burns into their SIPs. 32, 877
State environmental agencies should develop a strategy to ensure that private diesel fleet owners participate in the Volkswagen mitigation program. 32, 870
State environmental agencies should require stationary sources to install the most effective PM filters and other emissions controls. 32, 874
State foresters should recognize the importance of considering carbon capture, geologic sequestration, and climate change adaptation in management decisions regarding state forests. 31, 824
State Governments
State governors could use Executive Orders to direct the purchase of CCS produced energy, or raise state purchaes of clean energy where CCS is present 28, 725
State governors should adopt executive orders mandating HFC use reductions 34, 912
State govt. fleets should invest in deployment of lower GHG emitting vehicles 15, 422
State govt. should encourage low GHG fertilizer production 30, 817
State govts should assess all decisions against long-term goals and pathways, to minimize carbon lock-in and stranded assests 1, 38
State govts. can call upon AFV owners to educate potential AFV purchasers 14, 379
State govts. can reduce barriers to NETs by uzing condemnation powers for needed land 29, 767
State govts. can reduce barriers to NETs by uzing condemnation powers for needed land 29, 767
State govts. can reduce barriers to NETs by uzing condemnation powers for needed land 29, 767
State govts. consider ways to commit to AFV vhicle fleets 14, 375
State govts. could incentivize CCS power production through PPA with those plants 28, 726
State govts. laws should comply with international trade laws 8, 201
State govts. should address generational scale lifestyle changes by promoting positive change and heading off shifts that undermine deep decarbonization 3, 109
State govts. should address standards, regulations, and liability regimes for autonomous vehicles 14, 378
State govts. should adopt building codes that require best energy-efficiency practices and energy consumption disclosure 6, 170
State govts. should adopt policies promoting flexible work schedules, and inform and incentivize private employers 13, 340
State govts. should adopt policies to reduce demand for energy services, not just energy efficiency 3, 108
State govts. should adopt strategies to increase uptake of energy efficient home equipment, including green leases and improved LC cost information 3, 106
State govts. should allow more homeowners to participate in net metering and allow customers to lock-in reates for energy sold back to the grid 5, 145
State govts. should amend green purchase programs to eliminate HFC equipment where low GWP options are available 34, 912
State govts. should consider deploying clean energy systems in the northern parts of the country 32, 876
State govts. should expand public owned forests, focusing on land rendered economically unproductive by climate change 31, 833
State govts. should incentivize companies and individuals to sequester more carbon on forestland 31, 844
State govts. should incentivize the replacement of wood-burning stoves 32, 876
State govts. should make emissions reductions a goal of all travel and aviation policies 16, 436
State govts. should promote strategies to reduce carbon emissions from existing home equipment and buildings, including monthly feedback and information campaigns 3, 107
State govts. should require reporting of carbon performance information on energy projects wherever they can 6, 177
State govts. should restrict vehicle idling, particularly heavy duty diesl vehicles 32, 866
State land management agencies should develop prescribed burn protocols and land management strategies to minimize the net warming caused by emissions of fine PM and CO2. 32, 877
State land managers should conduct regional research to understand how black carbon emissions contribute to warming. 32, 877
State legislatures and state agricultural agencies should use conservation tillage programs to reduce agricultural burns. 32, 877
State legislatures could also allow utilities to charge ratepayers for the cost of industrywide hiring halls and for retraining that bridges the gap between workers’ old skills and new occupations. 24, 640
State legislatures or governors should establish state ZEB goals, such as California’s goals under California’s Building Energy Efficiency Standards. 10, 274
State legislatures should adopt a price for carbon either through a carbon tax or through cap-and-trade systems that include new buildings. 10, 273
State legislatures should adopt building or electrical code standards that support use of on-site energy storage to allow more-efficient usage of renewable energy generated on-site at new buildings. 10, 273
State legislatures should allow owners of net-zero buildings to charge an energy-efficiency fee that reflects the prorated additional building cost of achieving net-zero status for the building. 10, 273
State legislatures should amend forestry laws to encourage tracking of carbon capture to facilitate the process of valuing carbon sequestration in any offset market created by carbon tax legislation. 31, 843
State legislatures should amend state forestry laws to consider carbon capture and climate change adaptation in management decisions regarding state forests. 31, 837
State legislatures should consider modest carbon tax or cap-and-trade program that recognizes private forest carbon capture as an emission offset, exempts emissions from sustainably produced biomass, and imposes tax burden on those who deforest land through conversion. 31, 843
State legislatures should follow the lead of states like California, Hawaii, and Washington in developing advanced building and energy codes that significantly reduce the energy used by new buildings. 10, 273
State legislatures should re-envision severance taxes that create natural resource trust funds as tools for phasing down extraction of fossil fuels and raising more near-term resources for social policies. 24, 641
State PUCs can help stabilize and subsidize prices for CCS-generated electricity, including by approvals of rates to help defray cost of CCS and power purchase agreements. 28, 726
State PUCs could adopt regulations to ensure that all customers receive information on costs and benefits of switching to electricity 11, 296
State PUCs could allow for incentive rates or other encouragement to facilitate use by the grid of electricity from EV batteries. 14, 372
State PUCs could change existing cost recovery frameworks where they discourage repair by, for example, imposing risk of increased leakage entirely on customers. 33, 889
State PUCs could make clear that merchant transmission line companies can seek siting permits and exercise eminent domain authority under the same conditions as electric utilities. 20, 543
State PUCs could offer a lower rate of return on fossil-fueled power plants and a higher return on plants that rely on renewable fuels. 24, 631
State PUCs should adopt renewable gas quality standards that do not operate as a barrier to pipeline transportation. 26, 688
State PUCs should adopt utility rate designs that align utility interests with energy efficiency, such as decoupling 9, 242
State PUCs should authorize utilities to install smart meters 10, 274
State PUCs should consider adopting special electricity rates customized to homes with geothermal systems. 19, 521
State PUCs should consider possibility of stranded assets when assessing proposals for fossil fuel infrastructure that will be paid for by ratepayers, such as electric transmission lines and generating facilities. 24 app B, 645
State PUCs should create policies to encourage utilities to speed up the interconnection approval process through streamlined automated procedures and online hosting capacity maps. 19, 504
State PUCs should direct their regulated electric utilities to evaluate need for and benefits of grid-scale storage such as pumped storage hydro. 22, 596
State PUCs should discourage, and perhaps penalize, utilities for delaying or denying approval for DG-plus- storage systems. 19, 502
State PUCs should eliminate any mandate for natural gas connections in building codes to allow for geothermal or other low-carbon substitutes. 19, 520
State PUCs should encourage utilities to use grid-connected PV (solar) along with distributed battery storage to provide benefits of resilience and emergency backup to their services. 19, 502
State PUCs should expand community solar ownership legislation, such as virtual net metering, for all customers. 19, 525
State PUCs should maintain net metering until an alternative rate that measures the true value of solar generation is established. 19, 501
State PUCs should mandate new energy-efficiency and renewable energy technologies and programs, create incentives for these programs, and, where appropriate, allow utilities to recover costs of implementing new technologies and programs. 20, 544
State PUCs should participate in negotiations concerning restructuring of utilities away from vertically integrated, investor-owned monopolies, focused on selling more kWh, to alternative models. 19, 503
State PUCs should play a role in restricting utility penalties for solar PV that encourage customer defection. 19, 502
State PUCs should provide some process for funding citizen participation in ratemaking negotiations. 19, 505
State PUCs should refuse to approve, on public interest grounds, any power purchase agreement that restricts the sale of electricity subject to curtailment. 26, 684
State PUCs should require pipeline operators seeking to apply stricter quality standards to renewable gas than natural gas to provide a valid justification for that choice. 26, 688
State PUCs should require utilities to file “distributed resource plans” or locational value maps showing where distributed generation resources are most needed and best deployed. 19, 504
State PUCs should support development of infrastructure for expanded use of EVs by acting to bolster utility investment in it. 14, 367
State PUCs, with state energy and environment agencies, should consider establishing a voluntary prefiling scheme for permit applications for renewable gas-gathering pipelines. 26, 686
State utility commissions could adopt public financing and infrastructure support to assist private entities investing in new nuclear projects. 21, 561
State utility commissions should adopt decoupling mechanisms so that utilities do not receive income in excess of revenue requirement plus earned incentives 6, 166
State utility commissions should authorize or require “on-bill recovery” of loan payments o for energy projects 6, 181
State utility commissions should consider a process for unsolicited proposals from grid-edge resource providers 6, 164
State utility commissions should create clear roadmaps to cross-sector deep decarbonization to ensure emissions reduction goals are met on time and at reasonable cost 1, 38
State utility commissions should encourage local governments to take initiative in building clean energy infrastructure. 23, 611
State utility commissions should encourage utilities to engage in “utility-private partnerships” to procure services from grid-edge resources 6, 152
State utility commissions should require distribution companies to compile and release information to enable utility-private partnerships and other sales of services to support the distribution grid 6, 177
States could trigger provisions that respond to changes in CA's underlying standards 32, 861
States should adopt CA's emissions standards, and justify such action locally 32, 861
States should adopt policies requiring reporting on carbon performane of grid-generating assets 6, 178
States should allocate more funding to supporting diesel retrofits and replacements 32, 869
States should close the loopholders created by grandfathering under the CAA if EPA does not 32, 874
States should deploy comprehensive woodstove replacement programs, including for low-income access 32, 876
States should ensure that communities have access to aggregate information from utilities about their energy use 6, 182
States should ensure that energy customers have access to information about energy use and services collected by utilities 6, 182
States should protect future "just and reasonable" utility rates by considering stiffer GHG restrictions in future years 24, 623
States should raise fuel tax to the extent possible under FAA rules 16, 432
States should raise fuel tax to the extent possible under FAA rules 16, 432
States should review all aviation taxes and charges to assess adequacy in light of aviation's climate impacts 16, 432
Stress testing has been valuable, and could be expanded
Submarine landslides could release methane
Substantial uncertainty about damages
Sudden methane release "much less worrisome thatn first considered possible"
System is being expanded
Tax Code Changes
Tenth Commandment - Embrace Cities
The administration should direct all federal departments, agencies, and bureaus with responsibilities for hydropower to review agency guidance to reflect hydropower as a priority for combating carbon emissions. 22, 584
The administration should establish that all licensed and exempted nonfederal hydropower is an energy priority, and direct federal departments, agencies, and bureaus to review policies and other governing documents that are inconsistent with this policy. 22, 583
The administration should focus on key processes that take place within energy-intensive industries, such as fractional distillation in refineries and more. 12, 306-08, 315
The administration should promote available and near-term BAT to shore up the process efficiency of major industrial sectors and lower direct carbon emissions. 12, 305
The administration should pursue a diverse portfolio of legal tools, including carbon pricing and more. 12, 326
The administration should pursue material efficiency strategies such as lightweighting, reduced yield loss, diverted scrap, reuse, increased product life-span, and greater product use intensity. 12, 324
The administration should pursue policies that promote efficient end use in the industrial sector, energy supply strategies such as electricity supply decarbonization, fuel switching, material efficiency, and carbon management. 12, 302
The administration should pursue subsidy of deep decarbonization of the industrial sector through RD&D, tax exemption, equipment standards, energy audits and voluntary agreements, and information-based programs. 12, 318
The administration should speed up the timetable for adoption of new technology encouraged by CAA §111 and §115 with subsidies and regulatory floors as well as increased support for CCS and co-firing biomass. 12, 318
The airline industry should undertake voluntary aviation emissions reduction measures 16, 435
The Doomsday Clock now stands at 100 seconds to midnight
The executive branch should develop energy-efficiency policies that combine complementary energy-efficiency policies that are part of a larger set of decarbonization policies. 9, 219, 232, 247
The loss of ice shelves, which slow land-based ice melt, can disappear very quickly
The president could issue an Executive Order directing expedited federal review of NET projects and activities. 29, 767
The president could issue EO to direct agencies to purchase minimum amount of CCS-produced energy, and raise minimum total amount of clean energy to be purchased by the federal government by 2050. 28, 725
The president should align the policy goals of various agencies and departments to work to reduce aviation emissions to the maximum possible extent. 16, 441
The president should consider, by Executive Order, requiring that all federal buildings, regardless of age, have no fossil fuel-generated energy consumption on or before 2050. 11, 291-92
The president should expand national monuments and manage federal lands to promote afforestation of permafrost areas, as climate change supports expansion of northern forests. 31, 834
The president should issue EO imposing time limitations for the ESA §10 incidental take permit process and consider other ways to make the process more efficient. 18, 486
The president should retain within the GSA the Office of Federal High-Performance Green Buildings that was mandated by EISA. 10, 272
The president should revise EO 13693 to clarify that all forms of licensed and exempted nonfederal hydropower meet the definition of “renewable electric energy.” 22, 583
The president, by EO, could require that a specified % of electricity that the federal government procures be from nuclear power generation. 21, 567
The private sector should enable or encourage less flying 16, 437
The reality is that Center Green will be attacked from both sides
The relationship between forest and savanna
The SEC should enforce compliance with its 2010 guidance on disclosure requirements related to climate change. 24, 645
The SEC should enhance its 2010 guidance on climate change disclosure to require explicitly the possibility that climate regulation will lead to the stranding of corporate assets. 24, 645
The sheer size of high latitude carbon stores is enough to raise concerns
The Stern Review framed climate change as a question of risk management
The time scale for hydrate thawing is on the order of centuries to millenia
Then there are the interactive maps of what will happen in the future
Then there is Bloomberg's CO2 concentration clock
Then we get into time series visualizations of climate change, of which there are dozens if not hundreds
Then we get to before and after images
There are no currently proposed mechanisms that would lead to the abrupt release of permafrost carbon
There is a strong correlation between CO2 and sea level
These probabilities understate risks in many locations
Third Commandment - Compromise and Incrementalism are Okay
This is a new GIF visualization of sea ice loss
Three problems with an SCC value
To succeed, Greens need nearly flawless political execution
Trade agreements are a major impediment to climate action
Two processes are most important: fire and loss of soil moisture
U.S. coastal infrastructure is quite vulnerable
Value judgments cannot be avoided
Valuing climate risks does not generate a good measure of risks
Very few estimates of adaptation limits when it comes to SLR
Video Overview of Additionality
Video Overview of California's Forestry Offsets as Additional
We don't understand "wipeout zones" well enough to predict them
We have tended to look at climate risks too narrowly
We should develop an early warning system
We should focus on asking "what is it we wish to avoid, and then work back from that
What are some of the most interesting graphics?
What does the report really recommend?
What does the report say about our ability to anticipate abrupt change in social systems (due to climate change)?
What does the report say about the West Antarctic ice sheet?
What the Indian monsoons do is critically important, and hard to model
What we want to avoid: Crop failure.
What's the biggest uncertainty when it comes to sea level rise?
What's the bottom line when it comes to atmospheric changes?
What's the bottom line when it comes to ecosystem changes?
What's the bottom line when it comes to high latitude changes?
What's the bottom line when it comes to ocean changes?
What's the one terrestrial ecosystem that the report looks at?
What's the scope of the report? Just ecological impacts, or also human implications?
What's the topic in the report that you probably haven't heard of?
Where does the report note that key relationships are not well understood
Where does the report point to less risk of abrupt change than previously hypothesized?
Where does the report to risks that are very large, but just very uncertain?
Why are we able to start exploring the idea of abrupt change with more confidence?
Will breakthrough technologies e.g. air capture be deployed
Will large scale efficiency technologies be deployed?
Will nuclear be a serious option?
You can also embed the Census Bureau's population clock for the U.S. and the world

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