Evaluating a 100% Renewables Future

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Mark Jacobson is one of the primary advocates of the potential for a rapid transition to 100% renewable energy. This graphic from 2015 illustrates his originally proposed pathway for the United States.

While DNV’s 2021 Energy Transition Outlook projects very large increases in global renewable energy generation, it projects that by 2050 a great deal of fossil fuel energy will still be required.

Using a simulation model, Backus’ 2021 Base Case includes additional energy demand created by climate change, and illustrates the magnitude of the renewable energy-to-make-more-renewable-energy challenge (own-use). Backus notes that the results may seem surprising (and acknowledges they may be somewhat exaggerated), but that the dynamics represented by the graphic are very real.