Estuarine Framework

Estuarine Mapping is the third major sense-making framework in the Cynefin ecosystem

• It is based on the idea of an estuary (but not a delta), with the metaphor emphasizing the complex and multiple flows of possibility in the system
• In an estuary the water flows in and flows out, so there might be things you can do only at the turn of the tide
• Some elements might be stable, like a granite cliff, which only need to be checked rarely, while others, like sandbanks, could shift daily
• As the water flows in and out, some elements might be covered or visible
• The typology of estuaries can provide an associated typology of metaphors for the framework
• Developed as a counter to traditional approaches to strategy that are fixed in nature
  • Break the pattern of a reductionist approach to creating predictability
  • Intent is to offer an alternative Porter’s Five Competitive Forces as a strategy

The framework is founded on three key aspects of working with complex adaptive systems:

1. Working with micro-nudges, lots of small projects rather than one big project so that success and failure are both (non-ironically) opportunities
2. Understanding where we are, and starting journeys with a sense of direction rather than abstract goals
3. Understanding, and working with propensities and dispositions, managing both so that the things you want have a lower energy cost than the things you don’t

Ideally Estuarine Mapping would be continuous to help define problem spaces as they emerge. That’s the intent. Getting started with a problem space ‘broadly construed’ would make sense.

Estuarine Framework is the Energy/Time grid while Estuarine Mapping is the process to create the E/T grid.

2024-03-01

• The basic Estuarine Framework has not changed significantly since last year’s 2023-03-01 publication
• The Vulnerable zone has been renamed Volatile to remove any value judgement