IPCC 6th
<font size="4" face="Times New Roman">=</font><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">// biden infra</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"></font></div><div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">he's good w/ metaphor</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><a href="https://www.alternet.org/2022/03/limiting-climate-change-life-support/">https://www.alternet.org/2022/03/limiting-climate-change-life-support/</a></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">"The 1.5-degree goal is on life support. It is in intensive care."</b></font></div><p><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);"><b>So <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/node/262502" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">said</a> United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres </b>on Monday, as he stressed that a swift and just transition to clean energy is necessary to meet the Paris agreement's objective of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels—and<b> warned against using Russia's deadly assault on Ukraine as an excuse to ramp up fossil fuel production worldwide.</b></font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>"The science is clear. So is the math,"</b> the U.N. leader said during a <a href="https://media.un.org/en/asset/k1c/k1caka4eie" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">speech</a> delivered at a Sustainability Summit hosted by <b>The Economist.</b> "Keeping 1.5 alive requires a 45% reduction in global emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by mid-century." And yet, "according to present national commitments, global emissions are set to increase by almost 14% in the 2020s."</font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>"We are sleepwalking to climate catastrophe,"</b> Guterres continued. "Our planet has already warmed by as much as 1.2 degrees—and we see the devastating consequences everywhere. In 2020, climate disasters forced 30 million people to flee their homes—three times more than those displaced by war and violence."</font></p><p><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);">Just this past weekend, scientists conveyed <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/03/20/unthinkable-scientists-shocked-polar-temperatures-soar-50-90-degrees-above-normal" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">shock and alarm</a> in response to reports that temperatures at both of Earth's poles reached more than 50°F above average last week.</span><b><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> Peer-reviewed </span><a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(22)00091-4" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">research</a><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> published on Friday </span><a href="https://gizmodo.com/wildfires-are-fueling-a-dangerous-feedback-loop-of-arct-1848667999" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">found</a><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> that increasingly frequent and intense wildfires around the globe are exacerbating Arctic warming, which is worsening the conditions that make future blazes more likely.</span></b></font></p><p><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);">"Two weeks ago," said Guterres, citing <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/02/28/un-chief-ipcc-report-damning-indictment-failed-climate-leadership" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">part two</a> of the U.N.'s landmark climate assessment, "the IPCC confirmed that half of humanity is already living in the danger zone. Small island nations, least developed countries, and poor and vulnerable people everywhere are<b> one climate shock away from doomsday. In our globally connected world, no country and no corporation can insulate itself from these levels of chaos."</b></font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>"If we continue with more of the same, we can kiss 1.5 goodbye," he added. "Even 2 degrees may be out of reach. And that would be catastrophe."</b></font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Making matters worse, said Guterres, "the fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine risks upending global food and energy markets—with major implications for the global climate agenda."</font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The United States, United Kingdom, and European Union have moved to <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/03/08/us-import-ban-russian-oil-blow-putins-war-machine-says-biden" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">restrict imports</a> of Russian fossil fuels in response to Moscow's military offensive. Although progressives have <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/03/10/mckibben-heat-pumps-peace-plan-gains-traction-biden" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">emphasized</a> that the ongoing invasion should lead to an intensification of efforts to <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/03/09/groups-urge-biden-invoke-defense-production-act-counter-putin-accelerate-green" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">move away</a> from dirty energy,<b> <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/03/15/biggest-oil-giants-made-eye-popping-205-billion-profits-2021-report" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">profit-hungry</a> proponents of oil, gas, and coal have seized on <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/03/10/progressives-denounce-big-oil-shamelessly-price-gouging-amid-ukraine-war" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">surging prices</a> to push for boosting <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/03/04/grijalva-warns-against-fossil-fuel-lobbys-drilling-push-amid-ukraine-war" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">extraction</a> and <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/02/22/us-gas-exporters-set-benefit-after-germany-halts-russian-pipeline" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">exports</a>.</b></font></p><p><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">Guterres warned that "as major economies pursue an <b>'all-of-the-above' strategy</b> to replace Russian fossil fuels, short-term measures might create long-term fossil fuel dependence and close the window to 1.5 degrees."</font></p><p><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">"Countries could become so consumed by the immediate fossil fuel supply gap that they neglect or <b>knee-cap policies to cut fossil fuel use</b>," he said. "This is madness. <b>Addiction</b> to fossil fuels is<b> mutually assured destruction."</b></font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>"As current events make all too clear, our continued reliance on fossil fuels puts the global economy and energy security at the mercy of geopolitical shocks and crises," added Guterres. "We need to fix the broken global energy mix."</b></font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Noting that "the timeline to cut emissions by 45% is extremely tight," the U.N. leader stressed that "instead of hitting the brakes on the decarbonization of the global economy, now is the time to put the <b>pedal to the metal</b> towards a renewable energy future."</font></p><p><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);">His remarks came just hours before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/21/world-sleepwalking-to-climate-catastrophe-un-chief" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">kicked off</a> a two-week meeting to validate <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/08/13/fearing-government-whitewash-scientists-leak-draft-ipcc-report-urging-bold-emission" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" class="rm-stats-tracked" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">part three</a> of its report, which focuses on the need to drastically slash carbon pollution to avoid the most disastrous outcomes.</font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Guterres argued that cooperation between the developed and emerging economies of the G20—responsible for 80% of global emissions—is essential to addressing the planetary emergency.</b></font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">"Accelerating the phase-out of coal and all fossil fuels and implementing a rapid, just, and sustainable energy transition," he said, is <b>"the only true pathway to energy security."</b></font></p><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">=</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"><a href="https://www.alternet.org/2022/03/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-event/">https://www.alternet.org/2022/03/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-event/</a></font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">
</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">=</font></div></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"><a href="https://www.alternet.org/2022/03/climate-change-surge-uncharted-territory/">https://www.alternet.org/2022/03/climate-change-surge-uncharted-territory/</a></font></div></div><div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">=</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">
</font></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4" /><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"><font face="Times New Roman" size="4">From the IPCC to the SOTU, people are picking up on climate disinformation</font></font></font></font></div><div>
</div><div> Published on March 3rd, 2022</div><div>
</div><div>TAGGED: CLIMATE, DISINFORMATION, IPCC, SOTU</div><div>
</div><div><b>Climate misinformation is having a moment! With an ample selection of news stories deserving attention, you might have to look pretty closely to notice. But hey, that’s what we’re here for, right? <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);">Because tucked into the latest IPCC report are a few key mentions of climate misinformation.</span></b> Flipping through to page 2,515, Section 14.3 covers the “perception of climate change hazards, risks and adaptation in North America,” describing how the “consensus that mean global temperature has increased and human activity is a major cause” is “the context for public policy action.”</div><div>
</div><div>[tom toles climate change denial fire]</div><div>(Cartoon by Tom Toles from the Washington Post – get his book on climate change co-written with Dr Michael Mann, The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy)]</div><div>
</div><div>By Climate Denier Roundup</div><div>
</div><div><b>But “despite expert scientific consensus,” there is still “ongoing debate… in the public and policy domains,” because “rhetoric and misinformation on climate change and the deliberate undermining of science have contributed to misperceptions of the scientific consensus.</b>”</div><div>
</div><div><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);">And though the report doesn’t use the word “disinformation,” and doesn’t go quite as far as it could to “name names” as Simon Lewis told DeSmog. But it does address it, describing how “vested economic and political interests have organized and financed misinformation and ‘contrarian’ climate change communication.” (If the misinformation is deliberately “organized and financed” by “vested economic and political interests,” then it’s not false content innocently and unknowingly shared as misinfo, it’s intentionally deceptive disinformation!)</span></div><div>
</div><div><b>As Geoffrey Supran told press, “these two paragraphs in the latest IPCC report are significant because they are the first-of-their-kind, finally throwing the weight of the global scientific community behind the mountain of social science scholarship on climate obstructionism.”</b></div><div>
</div><div><b>In past reports, “the history of climate disinformation, lobbying, and propaganda by fossil fuel interests has been consistently ignored</b>,” Supran explained.</div><div>
</div><div>That’s why the WGII report, meant to summarize the latest climate science, dips back all the way to the mid-00’s when referencing studies about, the report states, how <b>“the journalistic norm of ‘balance’ (giving equal weight to climate scientists and contrarians in climate change reporting) biases coverage by unevenly amplifying certain messages that are not supported by science, contributing to politicization of science, spreading misinformation, and reducing public consensus on action.”</b></div><div>
</div><div><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">These days the problem is more social media than legitimate outlets, and more up-to-date studies reflect that, the report finds: “Much online social media discussion of climate change … takes place in ‘<b>echo chambers’</b>’ – a social network amongst like-minded people in communities dominated by a single view that contributes to polarization (Williams et al., 2015; Pearce et al., 2019), and the spread of misinformation (Treen et al., 2020)</span>.”</div><div>
</div><div>The IPCC report’s inclusion of misinformation is important, Supran said, “because the IPCC reports are the most visible climate reports in the world. They frame the climate problem, its significance, and its solutions for the public and policymakers worldwide.”</div><div>
</div><div>And indeed, as international negotiators and scientists were in the home stretch of finalizing the Summary for Policymakers for the report (which didn’t happen to fit misinformation into its 36 page summary of the 3,675 page full report) some policymakers in the White House were getting a misinformation briefing of their own.</div><div>
</div><div><b>According to an official press release, the “2-hour virtual roundtable” brought together “White House leaders and 17 scientists and communications experts” in order “to discuss the scientific understanding of why arguments for delaying action on climate change are appealing and how they can be countered effectively.”</b></div><div>
</div><div>Among the participants was <b>Naomi Oreskes, whose studies the IPCC referenced. According to the readout, she noted that extreme weather “made worse by climate change” is making it harder and harder to deny the reality of the climate crisis. “People may say ‘let’s wait and see.’ The truth is, we have waited, and we have seen.”</b></div><div>
</div><div>To put it in decidedly less White House-appropriate terms, thanks to Big Oil’s disinformation, we’ve spent decades fucking around. And now, the latest IPCC report makes clear, we’re finding out.</div><div>
</div><div>(Originally appeared at DailyKos)</div></div><div><font face="Times New Roman" size="4" color="#333333">=</font></div></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">=</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">2 22 final? 2 OF 3?</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/with-limited-amount-of-time-left-new-ipcc-report-urges-climate-adaptation/"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/with-limited-amount-of-time-left-new-ipcc-report-urges-climate-adaptation/</font></a></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">no lnx</font></div><div>
</div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Climatewire</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">CLIMATE CHANGE</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>With ‘Limited Amount of Time Left,’ New IPCC Report Urges Climate Adaptation</b></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Human and natural systems are already buckling under the influence of global warming, write the authors of a landmark report</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">By Chelsea Harvey, Sara Schonhardt, E&E News on <b>February 28, 2022</b></font></div><div>
</div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">The lowly Bramble Cay melomys, a small Australian rodent, wasn’t the kind of animal that often made the news. But in 2019, it splashed across headlines.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">The reason? It was the first mammal to go extinct because of climate change.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Named for the island where it used to live, the little rodent had been declining for decades. Scientists had warned for several years beforehand that it was either already extinct or nearly there, blaming its demise on a combination of sea-level rise and increasing tropical storms.</font></div><div>
</div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Now almost certainly gone, the Bramble Cay melomys is a grim reminder that some consequences of climate change are forever—and that some of these irreversible impacts are happening today.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Those warnings are among the stark messages contained in a landmark climate report released today by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, composed of the world’s leading climate scientists. A rapidly warming world will hit humans and nature harder than expected, the report warns—and we’re far from prepared to deal with the fallout.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called the report “an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.”</b></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">“With fact upon fact, this report reveals how people and the planet are getting clobbered by climate change,” he said. ARSON ON OUR HOUSE?</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);">The report is the latest of three in a major ongoing climate assessment by the IPCC—the sixth since the organization was established more than 30 years ago. The first installment in August, which focused on changes to the atmosphere, water and land, </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);">found that the window for limiting temperature rise to dangerous levels was nearly closed and that some of the shifts now in motion—such as sea-level rise—are irreversible</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 102);"> </span>(Climatewire, Aug. 9, 2021).</font></div><div>
</div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Today’s report focuses on how those physical changes will affect humans and natural ecosystems, and the ability of both to respond to what’s coming.</b></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Its primary takeaways include a mix of warning and hope. Human and natural systems already are buckling under the influence of global warming. Some of them are approaching the limits of their ability to adapt. Some of them will be changed forever and won’t be able to bounce back—even if rising temperatures eventually recede.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">But it’s not all doom and gloom. Some places around the world still have time to put measures in place that can help them adapt to more extreme heat, severe storms, drought and flooding. But that will require more money and resources, better policies, understanding and involvement of local communities—and all of it without delay.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div>
</div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The Bramble Cay melomys is hardly the only irretrievable casualty of the warming world. Weather and climate extremes already have left some irreversible impacts as human and natural systems are pushed beyond their ability to respond, the report states.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Hundreds of other species around the world have gone locally extinct—not disappearing from the globe entirely but vanishing from some regions they used to call home. Some islands and other coastal areas are slipping beneath the rising seas, likely for good.</b></font></div><div>
</div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Within the last decade, residents of Louisiana’s rapidly shrinking island community of Isle de Jean Charles—many of whom belong to the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw tribe—have become widely recognized as the first U.S. climate refugees. Elsewhere around the world, entire island nations are facing the prospect of forced relocation as their homes disappear beneath the swelling ocean.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Many ecosystems that haven’t yet passed the point of no return are approaching the brink. Mass mortality events are plaguing forests and coral reefs around the world. Permafrost is thawing across the Arctic, releasing large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane, degrading the landscape and threatening buildings and other infrastructure. Mountain glaciers are melting and shrinking, threatening local water supplies.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">And around the world, human suffering is increasing as global temperatures rise.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Wildfires, droughts, floods, hurricanes and other extreme weather events are growing more intense. Food and water insecurity is rising, particularly across parts of Asia, Africa, Central and South America and small islands. Malnutrition is affecting more children and expectant mothers. Small-scale farmers and fishermen are losing their livelihoods.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Extreme heat is killing people and damaging vital infrastructure, such as roads and power systems. Heat waves have reduced people’s ability to work outdoors in some places. Severe storms have dented or even decimated economic growth in countries that can often least afford to lose it.</font></div><div>
</div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>And it will only get worse with each fraction of a degree of warming.</b></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“We simultaneously need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to reduce the risks of climate change and also address losses and damages that are already being experienced,” said Adelle Thomas, a scientist at Climate Analytics and the University of the Bahamas and a co-author of the report. “And we have a very limited amount of time left to do this.”</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>‘MUCH MORE NEGATIVE THAN EXPECTED’</b></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The world has warmed by just over 1 degree Celsius (that’s nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the onset of the Industrial Revolution, when humans began rapidly pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It doesn’t sound like much, but that small amount of warming already has wreaked havoc on Earth’s climate system.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>“One of the most striking conclusions in our report is that we’re seeing adverse impacts as being much more widespread and being much more negative than expected in prior reports, than expected at the current 1.09 degrees that we have,</b>” said Camille Parmesan, an ecologist at the University of Texas, Austin, and a co-author of the IPCC report.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The report, which synthesizes thousands of recent climate studies, reveals that some climate consequences are happening faster than scientists had expected at this level of warming.</font></div><div>
</div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Infectious diseases are spreading into new parts of the globe. Species are going extinct. Ecosystems are dramatically transforming.</b></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);">Already, between 3.3 billion and 3.6 billion people around the world—nearly <b>half the global population—are “highly vulnerable” to the impacts of climate change,</b> the report finds. Climate change is taking its toll on both the physical and mental health of communities all over the world.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The findings suggest that even small amounts of future warming may have dire consequences for the planet, Parmesan noted.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">In another half-degree Celsius, the world will exceed the 1.5 C warming threshold, the most ambitious target of the Paris climate agreement. If that happens, the report states, “then many human and natural systems will face additional severe risks,” including a growing danger of irreversible climate consequences.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Climate impacts around the world will grow even worse with additional warming. That’s a distinct possibility if global climate action doesn’t accelerate. At the moment, the climate policies enacted by world leaders put the world on track for around 3 degrees of warming by the end of the century.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“The good news is that the IPCC makes clear that we can limit the extent to which these climate impacts worsen if we meet the Paris targets, but so far the world—including the US—is not on track to meet those pledges,” said Dana Nuccitelli, a research coordinator with the nonprofit Citizens’ Climate Lobby, in an email to E&E News.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">In land-based ecosystems, for instance, anywhere from 3 percent to 14 percent of all species may face a high risk of extinction at 1.5 C of warming. At 2 C, up to 18 percent may be threatened. At 3 C, it’s up to 29 percent—and the risk continues to grow with additional warming.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>
</b></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Sea-level rise will worsen as temperatures climb. And the coastal populations exposed to severe floods will increase as a result.</b></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Both extreme rainfall events and severe drought are likely to increase in many places around the world</b>. At 4 C of warming, around 10 percent of the entire global land area is likely to face a growing likelihood of both high river flows, increasing the risk of floods, and low river flows, increasing the risk of water shortages.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Hurricanes will grow more severe, l</b>ikely causing more damage when they strike coastal communities. W<b>ildfires will likely burn more land.</b></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">More people around the globe will suffer from extreme heat events. Heat is already the leading cause of weather-related death in the United States, and studies suggest it may cause hundreds of thousands of excess deaths around the world each year.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">And food and water insecurity will continue to rise, as agriculture suffers and freshwater resources dwindle on a warming planet.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">These impacts don’t affect all populations equally today, and they won’t in the future either. Certain parts of the world—particularly developing countries, small island nations and countries in tropical regions—are disproportionately at risk from many climate consequences, especially the effects of extreme heat and food and water insecurity.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">And in nations all across the globe, including the United States, some populations are more vulnerable than others. These include lower-income communities, Indigenous communities and people of color, unhoused populations, and the elderly.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“Effective actions are those that reduce climate impacts and risks,” said Edwin Castellanos, a scientist at the University of the Valley of Guatemala and a co-author of the report. “And because these risks are different for different people, effective solutions need to provide site-specific actions. Putting vulnerable groups and countries at the heart of the decision-making process of how we respond to climate change can make societies more resilient.”</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">ADAPTATION: ‘CRITICAL TO OUR SURVIVAL’</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Efforts to respond to climate impacts have improved and expanded. That’s particularly true for measures around water-related risks, such as the building of levees, early warning systems for flooding, wetland restoration and farm-based water management, the report states.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">But progress on adaptation is uneven, driven in part by a lack of money needed to fund such efforts in places that face the greatest damage from rising temperatures.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Most adaptation efforts so far have been piecemeal and incremental—focused on reducing immediate climate risks rather than putting in place measures for long-term, transformational change, the report states.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">They’re also small in scale and focused more on planning than implementation. And because those initiatives are geared toward current hazards, they are limited in their effectiveness as climate risks grow. And the warmer the world gets, the harder it becomes to adapt.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The report also finds that the gap between current adaptation efforts and what’s needed is widening and will only widen further if more action isn’t taken.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">But there are feasible and effective adaptation options, according to the report. Heat health action plans can warn people of extreme temperatures and help protect them from exposure to prevent heat-related deaths. Restoring degraded forests can help them take in excess carbon rather than emit it. Protecting coastal or marine ecosystems, or creating corridors where threatened species can move to safer spaces, can help their survival.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">But adaptation cannot prevent all the negative impacts of climate change, said Thomas, the Climate Analytics scientist and author.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">In low-lying coastal communities, for example, the increasing intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes combined with sea-level rise will lead to losses that are irreparable. And the poorest and most vulnerable communities will be hit hardest, she said.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">For some measures, such as water management, there is no amount of money or government support that can help with adaptation when there is no more water available.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The ability for human populations to respond to rising temperatures and try to hold them to the 1.5-degree limit also will depend on making sure natural systems are still capable of sucking carbon emissions from the atmosphere because reductions alone won’t be enough, said Parmesan from the University of Texas, Austin.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Yet the vast majority of climate finance goes toward efforts to reduce emissions, such as investments in clean energy infrastructure, rather than adaptation, Thomas said.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Another challenge? As climate damage dents economic growth, it can be harder for low-income countries to access the money needed to respond.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“Adaptation is critical to our survival in the face of climate change, but current financing schemes are underfunded and inaccessible to the majority of [small island developing states],” Gaston Browne, prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda, which holds the chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, said in a statement.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“The solutions are there, the report shows that adaptation works. It is particularly clearer now, given the implications and vulnerability outlined in this report, that financing for loss and damage is more crucial now than ever,” Browne added.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">World leaders will gather in Egypt toward the end of this year to hammer out ways to respond faster and more effectively to impacts like those outlined in the report. Previous reports have served as the foundation for targets like the 1.5-degree temperature limit included in the Paris agreement.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said in a statement that while emissions reductions will continue to be crucial, “we must expand and expedite adaptation actio</b>n.”</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">That matters since there also are limits to human adaptation—largely due to a lack of money and policies needed to support it. Those “soft limits” are currently playing out in low-lying coastal areas and among small-holder farmers who don’t have the resources to adapt further and will incur additional negative impacts from climate change as a result, Thomas said.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">For coastal communities, what that means in practice is that installing sea walls, putting in sand dunes or restoring coral reefs or wetlands no longer will be financially feasible or may no longer be technically feasible, she explained.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">But they can be overcome.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“If we put more resources toward adaptation, then additional adaptation options will open up,” Thomas said.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Time isn’t the only obstacle, either. Many countries that most need to respond to climate impacts are striving to develop and meet the needs of growing populations with limited resources. The report aims to show that adaptation and lower emissions can help with sustainable development.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">But that will require increased international cooperation, especially a greater commitment to providing finance—which the report finds is currently insufficient—and also ensuring vulnerable countries have access to it.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">It also will involve planning to respond to climate impacts when adaptation is no longer an option, such as relocating coastal communities when homes and livelihoods are eaten away by unstoppable rising tides.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Since the last report, there is further evidence that some adaptation can lead to unintended consequences that worsen the impacts of climate change—what’s known as maladaptatio</b>n.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Examples include firefighting efforts in ecosystems that are adapted to fire and rely on it to prevent outbreaks of larger blazes or hard infrastructure that doesn’t allow for water runoff and can increase the likelihood of flooding. Sea walls that might protect coastal communities today might damage coral reef ecosystems offshore.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Maladaptation can exacerbate inequality and put communities at further risk, and it can be expensive to undo, the report states. What’s needed to avoid it is long-term planning that takes into account local contexts and works to integrate solutions across different areas.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“It really requires a <b>systemic,</b> comprehensive response—not just a piecemeal, standalone series of projects. [It takes] really thinking about how does the economy, climate resilience, food security, health all intersect and how a better understanding of climate change reshaping all of those sectors can help us build a more resilient, just and fair future,” said Shyla Raghav, vice president of climate change at <b>Conservation International.</b></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">For adaptation to work, government support will be needed, the report finds. So too will clear, defined policies, better understanding of both climate impacts and solutions and access to the money to make them realities. Involving vulnerable communities, drawing on Indigenous knowledge and committing to climate justice is also vital, according to the report.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The fact that IPCC reports are endorsed by governments and provided to policymakers gives weight to their findings. And they do help influence policy, said Rachel Licker, a senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">But so far it hasn’t been enough.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“We’ve had these reports coming out for decades, and we’ve known what the causes are, we know what the solutions are, and we’re just not implementing them,” Licker said.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Despite the dire conclusions, ramping up action could be harder at a time when the world remains locked in a global pandemic and as war embroils Ukraine, threatening stability in Europe.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“We will always have emergencies at hand that seem to be more urgent than climate change,” said Castellanos of the University of the Valley of Guatemala.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">But that’s no reason to delay, he added.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">“We need to start addressing these problems of climate change,” he said. “Otherwise it’s going to be more complicated or even impossible to do so in the future.”</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"> POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2022. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environment professionals.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Chelsea Harvey is a reporter with E&E News.</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
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</font></div><div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"></font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">https://www.alternet.org/2021/09/climate-change-2655060913/</font></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
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</font></div><div><p><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);"><strong> United Nations warned</strong> Friday that the planet is barreling toward<b> 2.7°C</b> of warming by the end of the century, a nightmare scenario that can be averted only if policymakers take immediate and sweeping action to slash greenhouse gas emissions.</font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>Even if the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/status-of-ratification" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">191 parties</a> to the Paris climate accord meet their current commitments, global greenhouse gas emissions will still rise 16% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, according to a <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/full-ndc-synthesis-report-some-progress-but-still-a-big-concern" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">new report</a> published by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).</b></font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><b>The goal of the 2015 Paris agreement is to limit global warming to below 2°C—and preferably to 1.5°C—above pre-industrial levels. An <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/09/15/new-climate-analysis-shows-near-total-global-failure-meet-15degc-targets" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">analysis</a> released earlier this week found that the climate targets and actions of just one country—The Gambia—are in line with the critical 1.5° goal.</b></font></p><p><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);">"This is what betrayal looks like," Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg <a href="https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1438918817690816513" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">tweeted</a> </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">in response to the latest U.N. findings. "Whatever our so-called 'leaders' are doing, they are doing it wrong."</span></font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of U.N. Climate Change, said in a <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/full-ndc-synthesis-report-some-progress-but-still-a-big-concern" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">statement</a> that the international community must "peak emissions as soon as possible before 2030 and support developing countries in building up climate resilience."</font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">"The 16% increase is a huge cause of concern," said Espinosa. "It is in sharp contrast with the calls by science for rapid, sustained, and large-scale emission reductions to prevent the most severe climate consequences and suffering, especially of the most vulnerable, throughout the world."</font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The U.N. analysis came as U.S. President Joe Biden met with world leaders and <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/09/17/critics-warn-biden-30-methane-reduction-2030-not-good-enough" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">announced</a> that the United States is partnering with the European Union in an effort to cut methane emissions—a powerful driver of global warming—by nearly 30% by the end of the decade.</font></p><p style=""><font size="4" face="Times New Roman" style=""><b style=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">In its landmark </span><a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/08/09/code-red-humanity-ipcc-report-warns-window-climate-action-closing-fast" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="blank" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">report</a><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> last month, the</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 153, 0);"> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasized that a "strong, rapid, and sustained" reduction in methane emissions is necessary to prevent the worst of the planetary crisis.</span></b></font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">The IPCC also estimated that keeping global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would require a 45% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030—a mark that the international community is currently on track to miss badly, according to the new U.N. report.</font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">António Guterres, the secretary-general of the U.N., said in a <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/statement-secretary-general-report-un-framework-convention-climate-change" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" style="text-decoration-line: none; opacity: 1; transition: color 0.25s ease 0s, background 0.25s ease 0s, opacity 0.25s ease 0s;">statement</a> Friday that 2.7°C of planetary heating would be "catastrophic" and that world leaders are "rapidly running out of time" to act.</font></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">"This is breaking the promise made six years ago to pursue the 1.5°C goal of the Paris agreement," said Guterres. "Failure to meet this goal will be measured in the massive loss of lives and livelihoods."</font></p></div><div><font size="4" face="Times New Roman">
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</font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></font></div><div><b>Climate change: Five things we have learned from the IPCC report</b></div><div>By Matt McGrath</div><div>Environment correspondent</div><div>
</div><div>Published 9 August</div><div>
</div><div>The UN report on the science of climate change is set to make a huge impact. Our environment correspondent Matt McGrath considers some of the key lessons from it.</div><div>
</div><div>Climate change is widespread, rapid and intensifying - and it's down to us</div><div>For those who live in the West, the dangers of warming our planet are no longer something distant, impacting people in faraway places.</div><div>
</div><div>"Climate change is not a problem of the future, it's here and now and affecting every region in the world," said Dr Friederike Otto from the University of Oxford, and one of the many authors on the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.</div><div>
</div><div><b>It is the confidence of the assertions that the scientists are now making that is the real strength of this new publication.</b></div><div><b>
</b></div><div><b>The phrase "very likely" appears 42 times in the 40-odd pages of the Summary for Policymakers. In scientific terms, that's 90-100% certain that something is real.</b></div><div>
</div><div>Infographic</div><div>"I think there's not one single kind of new surprise that comes out, it's the over-arching solidness that makes this the strongest IPCC report ever made," Prof Arthur Petersen, from University College London (UCL), told BBC News.</div><div>
</div><div>
</div><div>Prof Petersen is a former Dutch government representative at the IPCC, and was an observer at the approval session that produced this report.</div><div><b>
</b></div><div><b>"It's understated, it's cool, it's not accusing, it's just bang, bang, bang, one clear point after the other."</b></div><div><b>
</b></div><div><b>The clearest of these points is about the responsibility of humanity for climate change.</b></div><div><b>
</b></div><div><b>There's no longer any equivocating - it's us.</b></div><div>
</div><div>[More than 100 people were killed in floods that ravaged parts of Europe in July 2021]</div><div>
</div><div><b>The 1.5C temperature limit is on life support</b></div><div><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);">When the last IPCC report on the science of climate change was published in 2013, the idea of 1.5C being the safe global limit for warming was barely considered.</span></div><div><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);">
</span></div><div><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);">But in the political negotiations leading up to the Paris climate agreement in 2015, many developing countries and island states pushed for this lower temperature limit, arguing that it was a matter of survival for them.</span></div><div><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);">
</span></div><div><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);">A special report on 1.5C in 2018 showed the advantages of staying under the limit were massive compared to a 2C world. Getting there would require carbon emissions to be cut in half, essentially, by 2030 and net zero emissions reached by 2050. Otherwise, the limit would be reached between 2030 and 2052.</span></div><div><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);">
</span></div><div><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);">This new report re-affirms this finding. Under all scenarios, the threshold is reached by 2040. If emissions aren't reined in, 1.5C could be gone in around a decade.</span></div><div>
</div><div>Reaching net zero involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible using clean technology, then absorbing any remaining ones by, for example, planting trees.</div><div>
</div><div>While the situation is very serious, it is not a sudden drop into calamity.</div><div>
</div><div>"The 1.5C threshold is an important threshold politically, of course, but from a climatic point of view, it is not a cliff edge - that once we go over 1.5C, suddenly everything will become very catastrophic," explained Dr Amanda Maycock, from the University of Leeds, and one of the authors of the new report.</div><div>
</div><div>"The very lowest emissions scenario that we assess in this report shows that the warming level does stabilise around or below 1.5C later on in the century. If that were the pathway that we would follow, then the the impacts would be significantly avoided."</div><div>
</div><div>Infographic</div><div>
</div><div><b>The bad news: No matter what we do, the seas will continue to rise</b></div><div>In the past, the IPCC has been criticised for being way too conservative when it came to assessing the risk of sea-level rise. A lack of clear research saw previous reports exclude the potential impacts of the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.</div><div>
</div><div>Not this time.</div><div>
</div><div>The report shows that under current scenarios, the seas could rise above the likely range, going up to 2m by the end of this century and up to 5m by 2150. While these are unlikely figures, they can't be ruled out under a very high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.</div><div>
</div><div>That's bad enough - but even if we get a handle on emissions and keep temperatures around 1.5C by 2100, the waters will continue to rise long into the future.</div><div>
</div><div>Infographic</div><div>
</div><div>"The gorilla that looms large in the background is these very scary sea-level rise numbers in the long term," said Prof Malte Meinshausen from the University of Melbourne and an IPCC author.</div><div>
</div><div>"In the paper it shows that even with 1.5C warming we're looking at the long-term of two to three metres. And under the highest scenarios, we could be looking at multi-metre sea-level rise by 2150. That is just scary, because it's maybe not at the end of our lifetime, but it is around the corner and it will be committing this planet to a big legacy."</div><div>
</div><div><b>Even if the sea-level rise is relatively mild, it will have knock-on effects that we cannot avoid.</b></div><div>
</div><div>"With gradual sea-level rise, those extreme sea-level events that have occurred in the past, just once per century, will occur more and more frequently in the future," said Valérie Masson-Delmotte, co-chair of the IPCC working group that prepared the new report.</div><div>
</div><div>"Those that occurred only once per century in the past are expected to occur once or twice per decade by mid-century. The information we provide in this report is extremely important to take into account and prepare for these events."</div><div>
</div><div><b>The good news: Scientists are more certain about what will work</b></div><div>The warnings are clearer and more dire - but there is an important thread of hope running through this report.</div><div>
</div><div>Scientists have long been worried that the climate could be more sensitive to carbon dioxide than they thought.</div><div>
</div><div>They use a phrase - equilibrium climate sensitivity - to capture the range of warming that could occur if CO2 levels were doubled.</div><div>
</div><div>In the last report, in 2013, this ranged from 1.5C to 4.5C, with no best estimate.</div><div><b>
</b></div><div><b>This time round, the range has narrowed and the authors opt for 3C as their most likely figure.</b></div><div>
</div><div>Why is this important?</div><div>
</div><div>"We are now able to constrain that with a good degree of certainty and then we employ that to really make far more accurate predictions," said Prof Piers Forster from the University of Leeds, and an author on the report.</div><div>
</div><div>"So, that way, we know that net zero will really deliver."</div><div>
</div><div>Infographic</div><div>
</div><div><b>Another big surprise in the report is the role of methane, another warming gas.</b></div><div>
</div><div>According to the IPCC, around 0.3C of the 1.1C that the world has already warmed by comes from methane.</div><div>
</div><div>Tackling those emissions, from the oil and gas industry, agriculture and rice cultivation, could be a big win in the short-term.</div><div>
</div><div>"The report quashes any remaining debate about the urgent need to slash methane pollution, especially from sectors such as oil and gas, where the available reductions are fastest and cheapest," said Fred Krupp, from the US Environmental Defense Fund.</div><div>
</div><div>"When it comes to our overheating planet, every fraction of a degree matters - and there is no faster, more achievable way to slow the rate of warming than by cutting human-caused methane emissions."</div><div>
</div><div><b>Politicians will be nervous, the courts will be busy</b></div><div>The timing of this report, coming just a couple of months before the critical COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, means that it will likely be the bedrock of the negotiations. The IPCC has some form here: their previous assessment in 2013 and 2014 paved the way for the Paris climate agreement.</div><div>
</div><div>This new study is far stronger, clearer and more confident about what will happen if politicians don't act.</div><div>
</div><div>If they don't act quickly enough and COP26 ends in an unsatisfactory fudge, then the courts might become more involved.</div><div>
</div><div>Four maps showing how world could get warmer</div><div>
</div><div>In recent years, in Ireland and the Netherlands, environmental campaigners have successfully gone to court to force governments and companies to act on the science of climate change.</div><div>
</div><div>"We're not going to let this report be shelved by further inaction. Instead, we'll be taking it with us to the courts," said Kaisa Kosonen, senior political adviser at Greenpeace Nordic.</div><div>
</div><div>"By strengthening the scientific evidence between human emissions and extreme weather, the IPCC has provided new, powerful means for everyone everywhere to hold the fossil fuel industry and governments directly responsible for the climate emergency.</div><div>
</div><div>"One only needs to look at the recent court victory secured by NGOs against Shell to realise how powerful IPCC science can be."</div><div> no lnx grafix</div><div>
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