January 2011
3 January
1. Goolsbee says failure to raise US Debt ceiling catastrophic.- Bloomberg 4.am
2. Euro falls most in two weeks on concern of debt crisis funding.
3. Russia plans to cut 110 000 jobs by 2013 to save $1.4 Billion
4. Oil rises to a 27 month high on bets of economic recovery
5. Oil forecasters see 3rd year recovery of gains based on China demand
6. SA keeps rates on hold as inflation accelerates, jobs decline// Bonds rise on 5 week low as debate ensues. Stocks rise led by Anglo American, AngloGold, & Billiton
7. Slovak Government 2010 budget deficit 4.44 billion Euros
8. BOA to take a $2 Billion charge on home loans, & $3 Billion mortgage provision
9. Arnold Schwarzenegger- last day as California Governor leaves $27 Billion deficit. Incoming Governor Jerry Brown repeats history for a third time since being Governor in 1975. (Note: Nixon left office and first stop was California governor`s retreat)
10. Private equity IPO deluge forecast as KKR, Blackstone unload biggest LBOS
11. Ivory Coast misses Euro coupon bond payment say Paris Club of Creditors
12 Technology to surge in 2011-01-03 9 Note Research in Motion)
13. Julia Childs letters ripped into French know-it-all, Republicans. Books
14. Corporate Bond spreads in the US shrink compared to the lowest in World
15. Illinois has days to plug $13 Billion deficit.
16. Nalco Holdings –Water listed Company, water purification, infrastructure, the next decade.(?)
4 January
1. Oil to go stratospheric & OPEC to review supply increase June 2011
5 January
1. Republicans gain control of the House of Representatives; scale back US Budget spending cut promise.
2. BP default insurance drops –shares rise
3. Australian $ drops to a 2 week low with the impact of floods. Importers to pay as much as 33% for coking coal
6 January
1. Japans fiscal situation approaching the edge of the cliff –Sengoku NB
2. Japan Bonds fall as weaker Yen boosts stocks
3. Philippines sell $1.25 B 25 year Global Peso Bonds to plug gap
4. Cisco, Microsoft & Google sitting on $1T as market leaders to realise the potential of Cloud Computing. Tablet computer wars take centre stage at the World’s largest Consumer Computer Electronics Show at las Vegas
5. Polar Technology Investment Trust , the World’s largest investing in Cloud computing & tablet computers
6. Asian stocks rise on optimism of US recovery
7. Goldman Sachs may sell or hedge Face book stock without notice to investors
8. Spain stress tests worry/ Chinese to support
9. China increases holdings of S Korean Bonds even after Debt Tax
10. Ireland. Soros mistrusts EU aid costs as Ireland default risks soar NB
11. PBOC extends biggest cash crunch since Lehman to curb prices. China credit
12. Osborne calls for new stress tests ( Bank / sovereign default risk) NB
13. JP Morgan legal bills soar in the aftermath of financial crisis
14. Face book valued at $50 Billion looks more like China Tencent than Google
15. Quant edge aims to more than double assets after topping Maxwell Hedge Funds
16. Turkey hires JP Morgan & Deutsche Bank for 30 year Treasury Bonds on low yield NB
17. Saudi Aramco
18. China European Tour & EU Sovereign Debt temporary bailout $2.65T
19. N Korea extends an olive branch and let bygones be bygones. S Korea responds that N Korea to eliminate nuclear ambitions and arms race. (Sabre rattling suggests conflict potential)
20. Blackrock Rice sees coal prices rising NB ( note shortage of supply Australia) for as much as 33% of Global market)
21. Belgian crisis deepens leading to paralysis as mediator steps aside amid deadlock. NB
22. SPAIN- Santander in the spotlight with Bond sales & sovereign debt
23. Rand weakens for a third day as $ demand increases
24. Amex /JP Morgan feel squeeze on credit card earnings
25. Martec technology ( Marine Technology) for the health sector ( Note:Dr Schimpff new Book Megatrends in medicine’ ‘The Future of Medicine”)
26. Bank senior debt holders face crisis with European debt holders
27. Apple approaches Blackstone Tosi to become finance chief. NB
28. Portuguese, Spanish bonds decline amid speculation
7. January ( Crisis continues in Europe)
8. China to put reserves into Euro, Banks & Governments in record investment. Europe and the Euro will remain among the most important areas of investment for China with record $2.65 trillion investment of foreign exchange reserves, a central bank official said in the nation’s latest show of faith.
9. Belgium political leaders seek exit from political impasse as Bond spreads widen. Bond 10 yr yield 4.08%
10. Stocks drops on EU concerns as Sovereign Debt Default risk escalates
11. Sovereign debt default concerns Western Europe, Japan
12. Western European debt riskier than Eastern for the first time. Euro Credit
13. South African stocks drop as gold, copper stocks drop. Rand falls to two week low as Central bank buys Dollars and gold to stem tide. SA Gold & foreign reserves increased by 1.1% in December
14. Poland debt of GDP won’t exceed 55% , says Minister
15. Irish Debt Agency to resume borrowing when markets permit
16. Food prices likely by Easter as prices jump
17. Obama in political & economic quandary as tax is reviewed
18. Gold may drop as ‘haven’ demand is shrinking as dollar strengthens
19. Czech policy makers say all policies open amid debt crisis
20. Asia stocks drop as commodity prices
21. Hungary Credit downgraded to Junk status
22. ECB policy cant substitute for irresponsible Governments-Trichet
23. Stocks drop, Spanish Bonds slide and Treasuries fall before US Jobs report
24. Sovereign debt unsafe amid Default concerns
25. ECB buying Portuguese Government Securities
26. Republicans promising cuts with deficit increases
11 January- Saturday 15 January
1. Japan pledges to buy Euro Bonds to aid China in assisting Debt ridden Europe.
2. Portugal un-sustainable Debt Dilemma
3. Bond drop , default insurance increases ( Spain , Italy, Belgium, Portugal, Ireland, Greece) ECB buys Gov Securities, though it’s never been worse to hold European Debt
4. UK Bank bailout totalled 1,1 Trillion pounds. EU 2.65Trillion, and US $1.7 Trillion from the Chinese, first loan from Obama.
5. 15 Jan- Record $14 trillion plus debt weighs down on congress. See article released 6 am Saturday.
6. Summary of the week: Perhaps the most historic week I have ever seen. The entire system swerved beginning Monday with Sovereign Default crisis, Spain & Portugal. Wednesday 12 January, MUNIS crisis in the US (Illinois needed $60B) urgently, and others. Friday the Chinese arrived in Washington, amid another debt ceiling crisis and the insistence by the US Administration that the Yuan be strengthened. News flashes that the Dollar Status as the Worlds reserve currency is under threat. Saturday 15 AP releases article on Debt Ceiling crisis in the US and the sustainability to meet debt obligation that would be unprecedented in America history.
7.
17 January
1. US – Martin Luther King Day
18 January (Tuesday)
1. ‘Covered bonds’ is now the natural first step for issuers
2. Foreign direct investment in China rises to a record $105.7 billion for 2010
3. Latest crisis with finance ministers talks in Brussels- copying US stress format.
4. Default swaps outshine Bonds at highlighting European stress. UniCredit
5. Bank of America exodus of talent cut European shares in half –Merrill
6. Tunisia revolt spurs regions credit default swaps
7. Unicredit expects east European recovery to be tepid, patchy.
8. Estonia PM says faster inflation is nothing tragic
9. Poland may raise interest rates for the first time in 21/2 years to control inflation
10. EU seeks to bolster crisis safety net as AAA nations mull rescue fund cost
11. Bankers push Buenos Aries Bonds after stress test
12. Bruederle- Chances are good for Germany to grow 2% for 2011
13. PIMCO takes control of Allianz sales
14. Debt contagion Spain / Portugal next? Euro Bonds
15. China may allow for offshore Yuan for investment in China
16. Food prices causes riots in Africa
17. Us Banks reduces treasuries
18. Dollar falls versus Euro on housing slowdown in the US
19. IEA raises annual oil demand & warns that global requirements for oil rising against supply and triple digit oil prices to harm global recovery.
20. Tech stocks rising in Europe & asia
21. Evergreen solar shows stress in China recovery
22. European stocks advance as EU Ministers pledge support
23. Gold $1367 & Oil $92 >. A price of $100 will increase EU Bill by +2,5% hampering recovery, balance of payments ect.The solution is to have more oil in the markets and conservation of energy.
24. Rand gains, bond sales reverse 8 day slide & Fitch raises outlook
25. Brussels –stricter bank tests are required. Must be the same quality/ transparency as US
26. Rising cost of food sparking unrest in Arab world
27. Pulse of UK economy..Inflation jumps to an 8 month high, adding to rate increase pressure for higher rates. Pound loses to Euro as Cameron budget cuts collide with BOE
28. Chinese premier Hu gets full U.S. State visit- status fuels Obama duelling with China /Debt and Yuan as an alternative international reserve currency, threatening the $ status. Yuan goes global!!. China wants its sovereignty status recognized. Former president Bush only provided a lunch!!
29. Tunisia revolt spurs regions default status
30. SA stocks rise led by SAB Miller, BHP Billiton & Anglo.
31. Hungary Orban pledges to pay back IMF credit.
32. ESKOM may sell as much as $2 billion 10 year Bonds
33. Falkenrath: A New era of cyber warfare NB!!
34. International buying of long term US Assets
35. EU REHN-. New Economic governance rules must be in place by summer.
36. AIG problem is much bigger than I ever anticipated- Kashkari (PIMCO)
37. European finance ministers enlarge bailout area
38. ECOFIN rejects EFSF enlargement. More stress tests to come
Summary : The recent EIA report 2011 and Bloomberg interviews suggest that OIL will remain with 3 digits, escalating the credit & default crisis by hampering growth.. Contagion =Environmental multiplier with Sovereign Fund destruction. Subsequent riots in North African & Middle Eastern countries evident (e.g. Tunisia, Libya, Jordan, Egypt), and higher rates of employment is likely to escalate. Food shortages in Europe estimated for April 2011. Gold must fly.
19 January 2011
1. IMF conducts Financial Assessment Programs –UK, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, Portugal act.
2. Premier HU state visit to the US has been described as the most important state visit in 30 years, and the most important relationship in World affairs today.HU to set out his vision & policy moving forward.
3. Whole milk powder at a 7 month high
4. Rubber futures rise to a record as Thailand supply concern spur purchases
5. Ivory Coast risk ‘catastrophic’ damage as a consequence of crisis
6. Greeks bartering their way through recession and ‘time pools’ have been set up for exchange
7. China needs urgent guidance on Euro zone debt risk plans. Yu Yongding says
8. China stocks soar on inflation leak
9. REITs may double down as bond spreads reach 3 year lows. Japan Credit
10. Hedge funds H3 global tripled assets in commodities
11. Oil rises on in NY on news forecasts of decline in US stockpiles
12. Best MUNI-Bond fund manager Fitterer says Whitney call for default overblown
13. Vietnam stocks may rise as much as 21% by end of 2011-Vinasecurities
14. EDF`s solar time bombs will tick on after France pops renewable button
15. Japan to emerge from slump in the first half of 2011-BOJ
16. Rasmussen uses Greek crisis to drive Danish welfare rethink
17. Foreigners seek Tokyo offerings for the first time since 2007
18. Traders lunch gets cut as Singapore gets a larger region
19. SA inflation rate dropped to 3.5% December on Rand strength
20. SA stocks rise with Anglo, BHP, Impala ( Platinum)
21. Asia Pacific shares closed the highest in 2.5 years today ( note tech & Korea)
22. King ( BOE) called to task as inflation fears fill lawmakers mailbags
23. Ireland wields stick forcing bondholders to feel pain
24. Anglo stock held by Ghana will be sold for $44 NB!! ( See AngloGold Ashanti merger & exit BF)
25. US & China Bailout talks???
26. US / China $45 billion in export deals ( Boeing gets an order for 200 planes $19 B)
20 January 2011 (Thursday)
1. Europe`s new risk watchdog probably lacks the teeth to avert the regions financial crisis, economists say
2. Stocks in SA fall most in a week led by Anglo, Billiton
3. Bonds at risk as Moody`s set to lower credit ratings- Euro Credit
4. Stocks fall as China cools on inflation
5. Greek bondholders unlikely to get paid in full- says Goldman`s Andrew Wilson .Also expects restructuring
6. Global Bond growth decelerates to pre-crisis levels- Euro Credit
7. Europe`s budget cuts must be fast says Baltic Prime Ministers say
8. Copper shortage to be the worst since 2004
9. China`s economic growth accelerates to 9,8% adding to inflation concerns with interest rate hikes
10. European stocks fall as China cools with inflation; Easy Jet tumbles
11. BHO coal output reaches a record with Queensland floods
12. Dollar rises as stocks drops as China cools with inflation
13. Nikkei 225 declines most since November based on China inflation cooling
14. ECB: Short term inflation pressure
15. Moody`s looking at Portugal exports to review credit ratings
16. Bonds , Rand fall in SA; interest rate to stay unchanged at a 30 year low
17. Asian stocks drop as China Economic reports suggest cooling of growth
18. Greece denies debt restructuring
19. Bonds a risk as S&P; lowers credit ratings
20. Rubble rally spurs best demand in four months with bond sales-Russia Credit
21. Sovereign Debt Crisis- European Risk Fund to be better utilized and would take time
22. Swiss ex-banker Elmer arrested in Zurich for handing over information to Wiki leaks
23. Santander said to delay sale of British unit
24. Spain plans to inject billions into savings banks
25. Spanish bank restructuring
26. Oil drops a third day as china inflation will cool demand
27. Polish stock rally ends after 2 years with interest rate hikes
28. Default swaps climb to six month high amid record debt sales. Japan Credit
29. Oil price for sweet oil rises to $100 for the first time since 08
30. Sell euro against pound on UK restructuring
31. Eskom says demand beat supply for $ denominated loans
32. German producer prices rise. More upside potential for inflation risk, German bond yields up,
33. BASLE rules for covered Bonds NB
34. Israel sets rules for foreign exchange deals
27 January 2011
1. Japan – Rating agency Standard & Poors (S&P;) has downgraded Japans credit rating from AA to AA-, citing Japans worsening debt situation for the move. It said it expected Japans debt, which already stands at almost twice the country’s annual output, to continue rising for about 15 years. It added that the governments ‘lacked a coherent strategy’ for tackling the debt problem.
2. Increasing volatility with the price of oil
3. Emerging market inflation?