February 2011
2 February 2011
1. Egyptian regime change roles into Jordan, as King fires government. Warnings of middle eastern instability if regime changes are not peaceful & democratic
2. Oil surpasses $100/b with new Bloomberg targets set beyond $110/ B
3. US Treasury Debt latest- Federal Reserve purchased $1,1 trillion and largest foreign holders remain China $900 t & Japan $800 t ( approx)
4. Chinese new year- Year of the rabbit
5. Australia, Queensland braces for Yasi , category 5 300km cyclone effecting agriculture ( banana & other) supplies
6. New Zealand allows some nations to buy into cows and not others- Germans firms buy 8 beef farms
7. New Zealand- Surging milk powder prices 17% since Nov 10, may hit record highs. A good case for New Zealand commodity led recovery as one of the World largest exporters
8. IMF warns of knock on effects of European contagion in Asia. Raises concerns about Japan ( see IMF web site) and IMF Global Financial Stability Report October 2010
9. Nomura default swaps hit for month high on expansion growth- Japan Credit
10. Fatih Birol Chief Economist for International Energy Agency (IEA)- The bulk of the growth will come from the Middle East. A spread of political instability may interrupt supply. Does not see an immediate threat to Suez Canal. Egypt instability of concern
11. S&P; cuts Egypt rating to BB, Egypt has a high deficit of 8% and debt stands at 74% of GDP. This budget deficit likely to rise with the political situation
12. Emerging market inflation- growing trend of investors linked into currencies linked to commodities
13. Egypt / US- 3 decades of weapons sales and training kept US in the loop
14. Africa better prepared to withstand food price hikes
15. OIL pushes above $102 –futures trading above $110
16. OIL- political upheaval could extend to Libya, Yemen & other oil producers outside Kuwait. Muslim brotherhood weighing up the new direction with Egypt PM M Barak leaving
17. Spain deputy Finance Minister Campa says Spain will never need a bailout
18. Saudi Arabia raises crude prices for March
_ 3 February 2011_
1. Note Ken Moellis & Co
2. German banks $200 billion exposure- Merkle motivates
3. Egypt’s long term ratings are cut-Fitch
4. Record Ruble Bond Sale has investors with $100/ b oil
5. Taleb says the first thing to avoid is US Treasuries, second is the Dollar
6. Washington lobbyists help Mubarak hold onto billions of dollars in aid
7. Most European stocks drop, Shell missed estimates
8. IMF urges Hungary to stop distortionary budget measurers
9. Verizon I Phone surges
10. Investors are dumping bond holdings for the fastest time in record. Muni credit
11. Stocks in US drop and weigh on commodity prices, with strengthening $
12. Microsoft plans a share buyback –the year of the shareholder
13. European rescue bonds represent an attractive buy, Norwegian oil funds
14. Trichet says no rush to raise interest rates as inflation rises
15. Spain to sell a 2nd power bond of $30 billion
16. Fed ignores stimulus with ‘uber’
17. February 2011
18. A G-Zero World: By Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini: We are now living in a G-Zero world in which no single country or bloc of countries has the political and economic leverage or will to drive a truly international agenda, which will result in intensified conflict on the international stage over vitally important issues, such as international macroeconomic coordination, financial regulatory reform, trade policy and climate change.
19. PICTET advises cutting gold in Euro portfolios for the first time since 2004
20. Russia exchanges 2011 debt for longer term debt
21. JP Morgan sees notable correction in oil prices as Middle East tension eases.
22. February 2011
23. Carl Weinberg-High frequency Economics: Exposure to banks in Europe could result in a Lehman size shock. If you cant fix Greece, you cant fix Portugal,- nothing in Europe is fixed
24. Global investment banks may cut 3000 jobs in Japan
25. China hikes interest to 6.06% rates leading to assets price in inflation, and erode income from consumers. Expect RMB to rise by 6% against the $
9. February 2011
10. Bernanke faces QE2 mutiny
11. Carlos Slim is all go for Columbia as an investment destination
12. Russia brings in cowboys and fly in 1400 cattle. The plan is a beef industry expansion over 10 years. Beef the NEW growth sector
13. Facebook launches mobile phone
14. Council of Foreign Relations symposium on ‘Currency Wars ahead”