Reinhart & Rogoff

harvard, bogus austerity study<div>
</div><div><a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639">http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639</a></div><div>
</div><div>Lauren Kurtz is a total babeNexus MediaBecause science is transparent, it is also self-correcting. Researchers can interrogate, criticize and improve upon each others' work. In 2013, Thomas Herndon, a graduate student at the University of Massachusetts made <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/04/umass-student-exposes-serious-flaws-harvard-economists-influential-study/316138/" target="blank" style="text-decoration-line: none;">headlines</a> when he found a number errors in an <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639" target="blank" style="text-decoration-line: none;">influential study</a> authored by two Harvard economists. The paper showed that economic growth slows down in countries with high national debt, and it was used to justify austerity measures following the Great Recession. Herndon, 28, published a <a href="http://darribas.org/WooWii/Assignments/OriginalPaper.pdf" target="blank" style="text-decoration-line: none;">paper</a> which called attention to the errors and refuted its conclusions about national debt.
This is how research works. Researchers evaluate and attempt to replicate the findings of their peers. They have every incentive to prove each other wrong. Herndon's work earned him the acclaim of serious economists, weeks of fawning press coverage and a <a href="http://www.cc.com/video-clips/kbgnf0/the-colbert-report-austerity-s-spreadsheet-error---thomas-herndon" target="blank" style="text-decoration-line: none;">star turn</a> on The Colbert Report. Any person who could do the same for climate research would be similarly celebrated.If E&E, Judicial Watch or any other groups were to find and publicize flaws in peer-reviewed climate research, they would be doing a public service. But, overwhelmingly, the data show that humans are driving the warming trend. So instead, right-wing groups go after emails, looking to defame scientists."Scientific transparency is obviously important," Kurtz said. "What we want to preclude is scientists having to live in a fish bowl."Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://nexusmedianews.com/the-desperate-but-effective-attempts-to-silence-climate-scientists-9e293887c3b2" target="_blank" style="text-decoration-line: none;">Nexus Media</a>.umassDoes High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic

Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff

Thomas Herndon∗ Michael Ash Robert Pollin

April 15, 2013

JEL codes: E60, E62, E65

Abstract

We replicate Reinhart and Rogoff (2010a and 2010b) and find that coding errors,

selective exclusion of available data, and unconventional weighting of summary statistics

lead to serious errors that inaccurately represent the relationship between public debt

and GDP growth among 20 advanced economies in the post-war period. Our finding is

that when properly calculated, the average real GDP growth rate for countries carrying

a public-debt-to-GDP ratio of over 90 percent is actually 2.2 percent, not −0.1 percent

as published in Reinhart and Rogoff. That is, contrary to RR, average GDP growth

at public debt/GDP ratios over 90 percent is not dramatically different than when

debt/GDP ratios are lower.

We also show how the relationship between public debt and GDP growth varies

significantly by time period and country. Overall, the evidence we review contradicts

Reinhart and Rogoff’s claim to have identified an important stylized fact, that public

debt loads greater than 90 percent of GDP consistently reduce GDP growth===</div>