April 2011
4 April 2011
1. MINMETALS (China) targets Africa biggest copper mine with a controlling bid $6.5 Billion in cash.Shares soar 30%, however the bid may have to be raised by 29% above last closing of A$ 7.35. (Japan will need copper to rebuild!)
2. Deutsche bourse NYSE takeover turning table on shareholder value
3. Greek default may condemn Irish & Portuguese debt to same fate
4. Oil prices too high and worrying - Kuwait petroleum
5. Japan-Fukushima nuclear crisis worse for nuclear power than Chernobyl. Tainted pork becomes the latest inflation driver. A silt barrier planned by Tokyo power to prevent leaks at Fukushima. Solar power is boosted.
6. Japan business confidence falls
7. Japan – radiation in water
8. Spain deficits
9. ECB rate increase risks economic recovery.
10. Oil rises to a 30 month high in NY on fuel demand outlook-(+$109/ barrel)
11. SAPPI to sell $680 million of Euro & $ bonds to repay debt
12. Corn jumps for a third day
13. Poland raises rates to avoid inflation expectations.
14. SA stocks rise led by BHP, MTN &
15. Australia rising disaster costs could exceed $9 billion. Some say cost projections too conservative NB
16. SA-Zuma quest for closer Indian ties threatens SA power supply
17. Spain PM- Zapetero to stand down and not go for re-election
18. Ivory Coast civil war escalates. 1000`s murdered. Cocoa prices rises dramatically
19. European stocks break lockstep trend with bonds NB!!
20. Egypt stocks rally
21. Qaddafi seeks diplomatic solution
22. Suicide bombers target Sufi shrine
23. Softbank pledges salary till retirement to quake victims
24. ECB president Trichet seen burying periphery economies with rate rise to stem inflation
25. Rand weakens vs Euro on carry trade
26. Citigroup may invest $2 billion in Asia on growth optimism as stocks rise
27. KKR`s
28. Vivendi agrees to purchase Vodafone 44% SFR ( mobile operator) stake for $11.3 billion
29. US- Wall Street earnings set to fall
30. NASDAQ set for NYSE merger
31. Unregulated PESO rebounds
32. European stocks little changed
33. South Africa not approached on Nedbank takeover rumours finance minister says. Brown CEO also confirms the same
34. Commodities climb to a 2 year high on M&A; activities
35. DIFC regulator extends contract of Chief executive
36. RUSSIA -Dollar bonds reduced as Ruble sales rise NB !!!!
37. Solvay agrees to buy Rhodia for $4.8 billion
38. IBM creating germ killer technology
39. M& A in first Q of 2011 worth $680 billion
40. Southwest Airlines to scrap 100 flights after cracks found in 2 planes
41. John Taylor, CEO of the World`s largest Hedge Fund makes a call that the euro will go on par with the dollar or $1 = 1Euro. There is simply too many head winds NB.
42. US- Battle over the US Federal Budget. 4 days to decide on DEBT LIMIT NB.
43. The Ryan Plan ( Republican)- $4 trillion in budget cuts
44. GOP plan to be released tomorrow
45. US Government shutdown 8 April 2011. Democrats & Republicans fighting over budget cuts & increased Debt limit
46. Gazprom, Rosneft, & GlobalTrans active.
47. Copper rebounding from a 2 week low. Seen rising 18% with shortage of stocks.
48. GE`s Immelt offers to help Japan
49. J& J`s hepatitis drug fetching $31 000 in France
50. J& J`s legal claims for Hip replacement joints that are contaminating blood stream
51. Sovereign worries, no reason to change Slovak debt strategy
52. Co- founder Larry Page –incoming CEO at Google. Scmidt (former CEO) Google shares worth $5 billion and may become Obama commerce secretary.
53. Seychelles’ public debt to fall on reform says Central Bank
54. The ‘Smart Grid” powers up . Intelligently match demand in real time
_ 5 April 2011_
1. IMF – Dominique Strauss warns of various Black Swans in the sea of global uncertainty (e.g. Japan) beyond sovereign default and the focus must be on stability & financial security
2. Japan- Asian stocks drop as TEPCO dumps radioactive water in the sea and requests Russia help with waste. Toyota falls
3. Japan- super tanker rates showing no increase for radiation
4. Singapore (SGX)- Australian stock exchange (ASX) $7.9 billion takeover rejected by Australian Government an on brink of collapse (NOTE the M& A activity of all stock exchanges going for NWO consolidation eg NYSE &
5. Lazard’s leads boutique advisors massing record share of fees on largest European M& A deals
6. Google may face anti-trust investigation after ITA acquisition
7. SA stocks fall let by MTN, Naspers & Remgro
8. Naspers- Antonie Roux replaces Kobus Stofberg at MIH unit
9. Norilsk nickel buying $1.2 billion of its own stock on markets NB
10. Portugal on the brink of bailout. Bond rating lowered to Baa1 by Moody’s. ( still under review)
11. Portugal 5 year bond reaches 10.04%
12. JP Morgan favours’ Irish 25 year bonds at 7% and expects Ireland to recover vs Portugal which is facing political crisis
13. Libya- leaders rebuke Qadaffi diplomacy
14. Turkish central bank expects to see an acceleration in inflation from a 40 year low
15. Charter Hall is said to seek offers for $1.7 billion US office portfolio
16. EXTRACT expects to fund Namibia $1.7 billion uranium project amid crisis
17. Estonia carbon credit success ignite moribund building industry
18. US-Dollar strengthens against Euro on Bernanke preparedness for inflation-commodity prices crucial to stabilization moving sideways.
19. Vale appoint Ferreira as Agnelli leaves NB
20. Dubai yield gap to Malaysia shrinks as debt restructured- Islamic finance
21. Hungary- Moody downgrade of 7 Hungarian lenders including OTP Bank
22. RUSSIAN SERVICE SECTOR HITS A 6 MONTH LOW
23. King soothes BOE staff with memo
24. Evraz Highland paid former CEO Ballandino $3.6 million for 2 months work
25. China bid for Africa Equinox increases 18%
26. Acelormittal antitrust case cut 80% of share
27. US will hit its debt limit by May 16; - extraordinary measures will have to be taken to keep Government working- UST Sec Tom Geitner.
28. UK-manufacturing disturbing & service industry results disturbing BOE quarterly report. Oil price puts pressure on BOE as Sterling price hits record. NB
29. US- California City is ground zero for pension battle after workers suicide
30. SA Jubilee Platinum to acquire Chrome Ore Processing plant in SA
31. NZ- English does not see a need for New Zealand rate cutes
32. Wal Mart CEO sees “Serious” Inflation ahead
33. Texas Instruments (Richard Templeton CEO) acquires National Semi Conductor (chip maker ) NB ( Chips for Green Energy turbines & Military et al.
34. SA 2036 demand has low demand in a year sale at low yield
35. Portuguese bonds fall, euro weakens on low demand.
36. Rand slips from 3 month high on import demand with retracement
37. Portugal surpasses Ireland on default risk
38. CNBC: Follow Interview of Squawk Master on global investing by Mario Gabeli- GAMCO Chairman & Chief Investment Officer NB. (CNBC Super Mario on the markets. 4 April 2011) “Squawk Masters”
39. US Republicans unveil budget plan with a $6 Trillion cut on Obama spending
40. US & China drive global growth of 19% of rugby players
41. UK: Nuclear plant construction goes ahead as Japan gets studied
42. CNBC Bill Gross – ( Chairman PIMCO $1.2 Trillion under Management)- I don’t agree with Bernanke view on inflation: Feds low policy rates will produce longer term inflation; Chairman Ryan Budget Plan a good start; Corporations have been in the catbird seat for a long time; There is much to be done in revenue raising, entitlement cuts; corporate lobbying has kept many tax loopholes in place; unless we tackle entitlement spending of $50 trillion, how will we win; the near term treasury market has been the Fed & Chinese; Treasury yields at this level are very unattractive; near treasury market has been influenced by short term buying of Fed & others( China); Better yields elsewhere ( Mexico/ Canada & others); Holdings on longer term US treasuries- ZERO.NB
43. GOLD $1434 ( my forecast $2500)
44. OIL - $109 to $120 (ditto > $140 )
_ 6 April 2011_
1. Germany-Deutsche Bank may raise as much as EU 18 billion to meet stress test with fresh capital WSJ
2. CommerzBank to repay 20 billion with share sale and by raising 11 billion Euros via capital markets
3. INTESA SANPAOLO approves rights offer to raise $7 billion to meet Basle 3 conditions
4. Portugal to raise 1 billion Euros today. Bonds at records and seeks investors as clock ticks towards bailout-Euro Credit
5. Japan-Yen falls to 6 month low against the dollar
6. Japan-Toyota credit rating may be cut on weak outlook
7. TEPCO stops radioactive leak into water. BOJ to stabilize TEPCO with $24 billion and to rule on bond sale
8. Malaysia inflation surprise ends SUKUK gain as sales rise-Islamic credit
9. US fiscal crisis in spitting distance- Lawrence Kotlikoff
10. US Congress fights clock to avoid a US Govt shutdown
11. US-Federal Reserve split on closing quantitative easing
12. Feds biggest foreign bailout kept US Municipal financing on track
13. Dubai bonds turn heads like Angeline Jolie with no demand
14. Dubai debt jumps as Abu Dhabi spreads worsen to record low
15. EUROPE diverges from US as downgrades exceeds upgrades
16. Russia- low bond demand
17. SA- Sanlam to invest in Zambia & Tanzania this year
18. SA stocks advance led by AngloGold to a 1 month high with BHP
19. SA Rand gains a new 1 year high over Yen
20. Wen inflation tiger may find cage door closing
21. Crude Oil trading near 30 month record high as losses in NY reverse
22. ARAMCO increases May prices for crude light
23. Berlusconi sex trial splits votes in Italy
24. UK- industrial production drops 1,2% for February; consumer demand wanes with low home sales as inflation and income squeezes demand
25. UK. Banks may lose $3 billion in revenue with consumer changes
26. Monaco homes the most expensive 3 years running
27. Norway must ensure oil
28. DIAGO submits bids for Ethiopian Brewery
29. ECB President Trichet rate increases wont thwart inflation
30. FED balance sheet up 288%, calmed and stabilized system. Deliberates the end of QE2 by June.
31. Wheat seen extending rally as corn surges spurs swap in feed for livestock
32. New Energy Summit- Bank of America tackles new energy ( $20 billion for BOA clients) ( Chad Holliday BOA Chairman)
33. Erste Triechel sees risk provisions falling to ‘pre crisis’ level by 2013
34. Texas instruments bonds risk ‘pristine’ on balance sheet
35. German state banks protest exclusion in capital for stress tests. ( Basle 3)
36. Gold hits record levels $1467 with oil over a 2 year high
37. Xstrata/ Freeport positioning for takeovers as China demand for copper escalates
38. Portugal taps Bond investors as clock ticks for bailout
39. Russia-lowest Rubble yields show Bond rates pares
40. US – May 16 the Debt limit reaches $14.296 Trillion. Moody will downgrade and undermine the US $ as the global reserve currency warns Geitner.
41. Nigeria Asset Management Corp., sell bonds at 11.8%
42. COMMERZBANK joins INTESA in raising $19 billion in capital to meet Basle 3
43. EURO strengthens as ECB weighs in higher rates.
44. German factory orders climbs faster than expected
45. US Republican Study committee
46. Steve Bell- Bipartisan Policy centre-$12 T is the new debt over the next 10 years NB
47. Scotland voters reeling from Cameron budget cuts
48. Mozambique annual inflation declines from 15.2%-13.8%
49. Gold Record today $1462.10 /oz
50. BP to invest billions in clean energy. Katrina Landis BE CEO Alternative Energy. Biofuels going to grow significantly over the next 10 years. The renewable portfolio standard by 2012. Wind energy has interruptive tax credits. What is going to happen with production tax credits??
51. US Supply report- Crude Oil trades near a 30 month high before ECB meeting
52. OIL ICE Brent Crude $122/ b
53. Czech funding cost may expand after 6 year Bond sale today
54. Abby Joseph Cohen- Goldman Sachs Global market institute. Now is the time to rise above the noise! Stick with a long term strategy. The economic news and paying attention to day to day news is useful, but counter to long term strategy. Don’t focus too much on short term information, or be blind, but economic growth will recover. The Japanese stock market has factored in too much bad news versus there potential. In the US, less sensitivity to rising commodity prices. We are more concerned with other nations where households are more sensitive. The fed has done a terrific job. Hard to see a dramatic rise in US inflation. We may see a dramatic uptick in interest rates. The shutdown will be a shame, but the real big issue is the long term, not the fiscal budget year of 2011 which ends September 2011. But the fiscal debt is being discussed and that’s a good thing.
CONCLUSION
All is not doom & gloom. The SA resource stocks have been booming. Gold & oil continues to rise with the Middle East conflict unlikely to resolve in the short term. See GF Middle East Report (March 2011). Factor increased oil prices, buying opportunities will abound both local & overseas!
Sovereign Debt default potential continues in the EU. There is potential with each market, and those who invested in Japan at the apex of Market Crash, will benefit from reconstruction. Exports of beef to Japan, is but one example. Green energy projects will rule, however the collapse of uranium shares is a buying opportunity (UK proceeds with uranium plant).
African resource stocks (e.g. copper) are potential for M& A activity. The race is on for resource security and Russia`s renationalization program continues in Africa. Norilsk is spending $1,2 billion purchasing own shares (Note Botswana). What is left, are the other stocks that form part of the BF externalization 2005-08
OIL, GOLD, SUISSE FRANC, AGRICULTURE, CORPORATE BONDS.CHINA rules (NASPERS- media/ Renewable energy imports) and African resource stocks listed Australia/ Canada.( Re-Nationalization)
_ 7 April 2011_
1. EU Debt crisis- Greece EU 110, Ireland 85, & the latest Portugal 75 Billion
2. Portugal notes 2 year 8.90, 5 year 9.56, 10 year 8.90 % and rising!
3. Spain sells EU4.129 billion of debt @ 3.4% , maturity date 2014. Spain avg yield for 3 yr bonds 3.56%NB
4. SA gross reserves increase 4.14% to
5. Sa stocks, Bidvest climbs
6. Australian adds record jobs and currency to record highs
7. US – Democrats & Republicans can`t mitigate shutdown tomorrow.
_ 8 April 2011_
1. Portugal may need EU 110billion to stabilize
2. Portugal will have to make deeper cuts than those rejected by law makers
3. Greece restructuring as market crisis comes full circle-Euro credit
4. Oil trades above $111 as gold hits record, stocks climb, futures rise
5. Australian stock exchange rejects Singapore takeover
6. UK house prices decline as Government cuts slash demand
7. Default swaps tumble to lowest levels since 2008 as reserves climb- Russian Credit
8. Russian car sales climb 77% on rebate program. Prod AEB to rethink
9. Wen tackling inflation
10. Japan –biggest aftershock since march 11, kills 2, cuts power to millions
11. Bank of Japan errs with Micro response to a Macro problem- Takenaka says
12. Russian gas to Germany climbs as Merkel ways nuclear power
13. RIO – Riverdale stake increases above 50% ( prize coking coal Mozambique)
14. Inflation gets dove treatment
15. Bailout ‘blemish’ for Iceland
16. SA stocks rise led by BHP Billiton, Anglo & Sasol
17. SA Rand rises to a 3 month high as Central Bank says curbs unsustainable
18. Obama demands a budget deal today by morning in the face of a Government shutdown
19. US Gov- ‘photo finish- shutdown averted. Whew!
20. Bloomberg Interview-Charlie Rose Martin Wolf ( FT)
21. CNBC Interview- David Harding .WINTON CAPITAL
11 April 2011 (Monday)
1. NYSE Exchange rejects NASDAQ/ Ice offer and will stick with Deutsche Bourse deal.
2. OIL-Hedge funds lift bullish oil bets!!!!
3. Oil at a 32 month high. Gold at record
4. PIMCO cuts Government linked holdings to zero ; boosts cash assets
5. Deutsche Bank derivatives integrity at risk says judge.
6. European stocks fall from 1 month High
7. Japan 6, 6 earthquake after Friday ( last) 7.1 magnitude. Extinction protocol say the major earthquake Feb 11, has ignited 20 dormant volcanoes and the meteorological institute predicts a greater earthquake beyond 9.00. The frequency of another big one is ominous, and in my opinion the ‘Black Swan’ phenomena in the markets is ever present.
8. Best currency forecasters predict $ weakness to persist as Fed stimulates (Wells Fargo & St George ?)
9. Oil price increase pose ‘key downside risks’ to global recovery-IMF
10. Italy threatens to quit Euro with no help on north African immigrants
11. UK is too small to save biggest banks , Commission says
12. Germany 2 year notes rise to the highest since 2008on inflation bets
13. China pork binge lift soy
14. Europe rescued banks lead $13 billion mortgage Bond surge
15. Asia strengthens and reaches 1996 level
16. Schneider electric considering a takeover of Tyco International
17. Price limits may require 14% Martelleno Bonds
18. Dollar may rise against Euro on interest outlook-UBS
19. Over 660 M& A deals in a short period of time. Parachute M& A `s ?
20. US IMF cut growth on oil prices and lacklustre job growth
21. Bretton Woods wrap up after 8=11 conference. Considers the dollar? Stieglitz says the EURO FDR option a beauty pageant.
22. Obama to confront Republicans on Debt Cap.
23. BHP Billiton completes $46.36 billion off balance sheet share buy back
Notes:
The oil price could go beyond $140/ barrel.
Black Swan (s) added to escalating Sovereign Default.
Potential stock market collapse by 2013- a perfect storm predicted by Roubini..
Iran may take over Iraqi oil fields?
Middle East conflict is likely to escalate? Environmental tragedy in Japan – radiation costs increase at Fukushima.
Costs to global instability, resource re-nationalization, currency wars, social unrest, and environmental crisis must escalate.
Early redemption of U.S. Treasury holdings possible? Japan or China?
12April 2011 (Tuesday)
1. See Bloomberg -Neel Kashkari (PIMCO) interview- US default our greatest risk. Debt ceiling battle has reached the deadline NB
2. Japan raises highest disaster alert to 7 at Fukushima. Stocks decline in EU too. Swiss francs gain
3. Japan sees a greater hit to the economy than before with nuclear crisis
4. Hungary has the largest Bond sale ever. ( European investors)
5. Spain- Wen (China ) said to invest in savings banks & not Debt
6. JP Morgan & bank of American to show weaker earnings as loans stall
7. Rand depreciation bet by Sanlam moves to global stocks
8. Portugal. IMF & EU officials meet in Lisbon on $116 Billion bailout
13 April 2011 (Wed)
1. SA Rand little changed against $ at 6.73
2. SA considering covered bonds to lower bank costs says regulator
3. SA to end 33 week prospecting moratorium 18 April
4. SA stocks advance led by ANGLO. BHP & MTN
5. EU banks Sovereign Debt holdings scrutiny by regulators. Core tier 1 of 5%. Asset valuations to be scrutinized.
6. Deutsche bank said to restructure US subsidiary ahead of capital rules
7. GLENCORE Ngo`s accused of avoiding taxes
8. Japan hit by more aftershocks which have yet to stabilize
9. Japan= Geiger-counters meaningless to establish radiation in food , scientists say
10. Swiss stocks offer investors a cheap safe haven UBS says
11. IMF warns US on Deficit
12. Bill Gross bets against US debt
13. Ireland-Stress tested Irish get ‘Credible” tag from regulators
14. Drake & Scull getting $1.9 billion in orders from Saudi Arabia
15. BRICS increase global influence as South Africa included
16. US –The Fed rescue plan too bizarre – Michael Lewis
17. Bloomberg Interview Tom Keen-William COHAN – How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World -release 13 April interview Get BOOK NB ( the ties between Washington & Wall Street)
18. PIMCO hires….. for emerging markets
19. Clinton failed status on Libya, too much for EU to stem the tide
20. China banks need $131 billion to meet new Basle 3 status
21. JP Morgan profits surge 67%
14 April 2011
1. ECB rescue policy falls far short of quantum leap needed-UBS
2. Greet sovereign debt restructured
3. Glenore starts $11 billion IPO as Goldman Sacks says abandon commodities
4. European banks may take as long as 10 years to sell underperforming loans-PWC says
5. BRICS leaders says increasing commodity prices threaten global economic growth
6. BRICS Nations GDP to eclipse US & EU by 2014. ( Note PIMCO Emerging market fund launched 13 April 2011)
7. BRICS call for an end to US & EU dominance at the world Bank & IMF
8. Goldman Sacks accused by senate panel of misleading Congress & Clients with CDO`s Artificially depressed market with short positions in 2007
9. California begs Texas for creating recipe and trade exchange
10. Greek 10 year Bond 13.04% for the first time amid debt crisis
11. Deutsche bank sold mortgaged backed ‘pigs’ as market buckled
12. US Obama plans to cut $4 Trillion over cumulative deficits next 12 years
13. China says foreign currency reserves rose $3.04 Trillion by end of March
14. Russia won`t increase rates until 4th quarter
15. Greek & Portuguese yields reach records
16. Italy sells bonds on possible debt contagion
17. Egyptian resorts fall to the lowest in 5 years as Government withdraws land
28 April 2011 (Friday)
1. Royal wedding Kate & William. The marriage heralds in a new era for Britain, Monarchy & the greatest choreographed event in history. A beautiful and emotive day.