March 2011
_23 March 2011 _
1. Japan likely to fall back into recession after quake – JP Morgan
2. Japan reconstruction estimate $309 billion –almost 4 Katrina`s
3. Atomic accident cleanup likely to go to tax payers impacting a global recession
4. Asian stocks drop on concern of iodine in Tokyo water contaminated
5. Japan –radiation leaking into food stuffs
6. Bond holders in fight to stability in Middle East with instability
7. China has potential to dwarf US Economy in 20 years –World Bank
8. Portugal on the brink of financial collapse
9. ECB`s absence from markets presage Portugal debt bailout- Euro Credit
10. Euro drops for second day on EU Summit on debt.
11. European banks will need $355 billion in S & P stress scenario
12. China demand for gold
13. Blackstone stake with Deutschetelecom rises to 13%
14. Saudi Billionaires company to invest $2.5 billion to build Ethiopian rice industry
15. MUNI industry fights back at Whitney ( US Municipal bond defaults)
16. Irish notes drop & Portuguese Bonds fall as debt crisis deepens
17. Dubai World signs a $25 billion restructuring deal
18. SADC to delay plans to adopt single currency with EU Debt Crisis
19. Nuclear mistrust may increase emission rates 24% higher
20. Dubai shares retreat most in a week with Egypt crisis
21. John Burbank Passport Capital interview NB. QE 2 to be completed first, and “then see where we are”. AQE3 may need as much as $3-4 trillion. Current budget of $1.2 T is short of $800B which funding of US Treasuries will either require the Fed or private investors to buy. Bank that benefited from TARP should buy up the shortfall, versus dividends after being bailed out. NB
22. Global Credit Card Summit - $90 Trillion / annum vs. US GDP at $14 trillion
24 March 2011
1. Moody`s downgrades 30 Spanish banks, however the big 3 OK. The Spanish Gov. agreed to finance the banks with EU 14 billion, but Moody believed they needed EU 40-50 billion. Outlook pessimistic
2. Portugal in financial crisis. PM Socrates Resigns amid political & economic uncertainty.
3. Portugal does not want to lose sovereignty with IMF bailouts
4. Portugal will have to ask for assistance from EU, but with what terms & conditions.
5. Portuguese notes rise to highest levels since 1999.
6. Portugal default swaps jump from 552 to 555
7. Crucial EU Summit in Brussels upset by crisis in Portugal. The plan to solve EU Debt Crisis with a 500 billion EU`s of debt relief.
8. Ireland want to renegotiate terms of bailout
9. Vietnam inflation climbs to a 25 month high
10. Gold trades near record high with EU Debt Crisis
11. Worst Texas drought in 44 years is effecting wheat, beef & foodstuff supplies
12. Russia stocks most expensive since 2008
13. Swaps climb as worst post world war crisis looms
14. European debt crisis intensifies
15. GOOGLE antitrust investigation by Justice Department & Attorney General. Controls 65% of search engine market
25 March 2011
1. IMF activating a $583 Billion crisis pool
2. Bahrain-Shiite rage turns on Monarch
3. Portugal needs $50-70 billion bailout. IMF may step in next week
4. Portugal downgraded to BBB with potential further downgrades
5. Assassinated Japan finance Minister
6. Japan -Fukushima reactor core may be breached leaking radiation. Food exports banned from Asian countries. Japanese swop fish for burgers & soy milk
7. Tokyo Electric in talks with partners
8. Tokyo Electric rout leads to the world`s worst Bonds
9. Japan quake woes lead to opportunities for BHP, Hyundai, Mobis
10. Japan beef imports set to soar as consumers move away from Fukushima
11. Japan, foreigners bought a record of $11 billion of stocks after quake
12. South Korean consumer confidence reaches 23 month low after Japan quake
13. Yakuza salivation over Japan reconstruction boom
14. Greece default woes stymie banks efforts to mend or merge
15. Billionaire Stanley Ho gives family casino stake to resolve dispute
16. Trichet, King haunted by Bank of Japan ‘lost decade’ interest error
17. Spanish banks most at risk with Portugal debt crisis
18. Crude Oil $105.6
19. NATO takes command of no fly zone over Libya
20. EU aims for a EU 440 billion fund by June
21. Australia, New Zealand $ rise with global stock rally
22. HSBC sees Dim Sum Bonds tripling as Yuan deposits triple- China Credit
23. Syrian regime promises change
24. TETENCO requires clearer picture of Philippine forward currency transactions
27 March 2011 (Sunday)
1. UK London-More than 250 000 campaign against austerity cuts. Retailers & Banks targeted. More protests planned
2. Libya -8 th night of NATO strikes
3. Yemen/ Syria- regime change riots
4. Japan Fukushima Nuclear plant –workers evacuated after radiation leaks
_ 28 March 2011_
1. Portugal bail out packaged EU 1.9 Billion/ deepening debt crisis
2. Banks sell Portuguese Debt ( Bailing)
3. Ireland debt woes= Bonds now at 10% (unsustainable!)
4. Japan-fatal & hazardous radiation levels delay efforts to cool reactors. Radiation stalls rebuilding efforts
5. Japan Freeze- stock market amazingly quiet
6. Japan GDP to fall 9%
7. Japan- 161 500 foreigners have left
8. Asian stocks fall on Japan nuclear status
9. Qaddafi has $7 billion in bullion to fund war
10. Libya war means that there is 100 million barrels / day not in the market, therefore this shortfall will keep the range between $96-106./barrel with potential upside. Total output 1,6 million barrels / day halted
11. Italy debt auctioning immunity resists Portuguese contagion –Euro Credit
12. Spain is building a fire wall against contagion- PIMCO ( Bosomworth)
13. SA spent $7.3 billion in the last year to stabilize the Rand ( NENE)
14. SA Bond sale extend longest rally in 2 years on outlook for rates
15. OIL falls for a third days as Middle East concerns pale against EU Debt
16. Goldman grappling with Volker Rule and ignoring it.. Among the most profitable income streams for Goldman comes from 2 units trading with its own clients money which is now at risk with insider trading investigation before Congress. Grupta & Rajratharum case. Special Situations Business still operating. Difference between Proprietary Trading versus Investment business. Goldman using its own capital versus lending. Investments are not loans; it means we trade your debt on the secondary market. Buying & selling loans is different from making loans. Wosnitzer says “Goldman is fudging the line.” They are using loans in a different way. A whole series of different scenarios occur between an Investment Bank and Commercial Bank making loans. Goldman Sacks & THE SPECIAL SITUATIONS GROUP. (FOLLOW!!!)
17. Ireland wants senior Bondholders to share Bank losses as ‘final’ solution
18. Dubai SUKUK yields tumble most in a year on debt accords
19. Rubble yield tumbles to a record low as Bank Rossil holds rate
20. Japan food contamination on the increase with high radiation levels
21. Russia lists Federal Grid in London
22. Ageing nuclear plants generation gap are under safety review
23. Euro weakens as Merkel Party loses election in home state Contention remains with nuclear installations & Germany bailout funds
24. Hungary new monetary policy to keep rate unchanged
25. Yemen is a time bomb
26. US rules out Syrian intervention
27. SEC rethinks trading rules
28. UK Pound weakens against the $ as UK confidence wanes
29. Aquarius Platinum shares falls on \Zimbabwe stake sale demand
30. CAMECO bonds worst hit as nuclear crisis unfolds
31. Greek, Irish, Portugal Bond Spreads poised to increase NB
32. Zimbabwe Mugabe vows to force foreign mining companies to sell stakes in Zimbabwe
33. US Cost of Libya-$ 3-9 billion if this goes to 3 months. Gates unsure how long this will go on , and the Special Appropriations Committee to vote
34. Summary; the Japanese status is worse with an embargo of principal freight carriers avoiding Japan and the radiation frustrates reconstruction, imports & exports. To compound matters, there is a shift away from commercial properties that are older than 30 years to quake proof buildings and 160000 plus foreigners ( ex pats) have left Japan. The GDP is expected to contract by 9% and aftershocks continue.
35. EU Debt woes worsen with Portugal on the brink with bond spreads expected to rise for Ireland, Portugal & Spain. In Germany, the only anchor to the Euro, Merkel has lost support on nuclear proliferation & EU Sovereign Debt bailout status.
36. The Libya war is likely to be protracted, and Qaddafi has announced his war chest. The bottom line, 1, 6 million B/ D are out of the market, and Syria , Yemen et all political status unstable, all of which effect global supply.
37. In SADC, the calls for nationalism persist as the race for security of natural resources persists
38. US, to distance itself away from the Middle East, but frankly, there is no other option to globalise natural resources with pending contagion & environmental changes. Please see the Extinction Protocol for daily updates on change that is getting limited focus.
39. SUMMARY : The first quarter of 2011 has introduced dramatic challenges which if continued down a slippery slope (environmental or sovereign stability), will make security/ sustainability the number one priority in each household. The issue facing all of us is Global credit Crunch vs. Global Hunger
Please see: HORTIPLAN Vertical hydroponics (Belgium)
GOTHAM GREENS NY CITY
Earths frontiers CNN/earths frontiers.com (farming/ greening NY)
29 March 2011
1. South Korea current account surplus widens in February as exports widens
2. Vietnam growth slows to 5.43% with interest rate hikes
3. France dodges nuclear angst after Fukushima crisis that cosy Merkel the vote
4. European Bank funding clashes with Basel 111 rules clash with solvency11
5. Japan weighs scrapping corporate tax cuts and increasing household tax
6. New Zealand may ship more vegetables with Japan radiation risks
7. Thailand may raise interest rates to curb inflation
8. Saudi women inspired by revolt with Mubarak
9. Portugal- PIMPCO Bosomworth ( INTERVIEW) says political status secures their fate of a bailout
10. Europe still runs the risk of Contagion. The battleground is now Spain/ Portugal which is critical if the EU is to survive. There cannot be default in the Euro area. Says PIMCO Bosomworth.
11. Andrew Bosomworth (PIMCO VP EU & ECB Shadow Council) Top Pick -Spain asset backed securities & covered bonds.
12. Libya- Obama says Kaddafi massacre would have stained world conscience
13. Irish plan default relief may rely on Trichet again
14. Japan stock decline; Bonds tumble most since 2006 as earthquake worsens finances- Japan credit
_ 30 March 2011_
1. SA Banks poised to lead stock market rally with 40% advance-RMB
2. Atomic halts spur biggest carbon rally gain since 2008
3. Sri Lanka growth spurs largest 3 decade rally after war
4. Irish stress tests may leave Banks with State Control.( NB IMF Agenda) Allied Irish ( down 75%), Anglo Irish ( down 85%) & 2 largest Insurance companies on the block for Nationalization
5. Portugal tipping point as it runs out of cash. Borrowing costs rise as 5 year Bond yield 8.99%. With a Government in crisis and without leadership, ‘WHO’ does EU or Lenders negotiate with as default status escalates? All the Bond yields from 3, 4,5 & 6 year are above 9% , the highest ever in Euro Era. Socrates: NO Bail Out, thank you. (No Privatization-thank you!) latest :10 year Bond paper at 8.02%
6. NEW EURO ERA Highs. Downgrades deepen debt crisis
7. KEC International to acquire water treatment company
8. Euro for Suisse franc in focus. Efforts to turn Switzerland
9. Yen, Suisse franc decline with growth forecasts, and interest
10. Oil slides as US inventory rises
11. Japan- reactors may take 30 years to scrap & $12 Billion to mitigate. Record levels of Radiation found in sea near nuclear plant.
12. Toyota US dealers to cut orders with parts problem
13. Japan supply concerns will cause global inflationary pressure.
14. TEPCO defends reactor response after CEO hospitalized.
15. ‘Black Swan’ events are once off events and almost impossible to predict and unforeseen. I.E Extinction Protocols are receiving expensive tail end insurance.
16. Taiwan may increase interest rates as Asia contains inflation
17. Iraqi Militants mount deadly siege
18. Syrian President to address Nation on the edge
19. OMAN index drops most in 2 weeks with civil unrest.
20. European stock market rallies the most in 6 day rise since December??? (Not sustainable & ECB intervention!)
21. The Swiss franc gains as the $ appeal wanes. In the past 12 month, the Swiss France has surged 19% against the Euro. Exports decline as Franc strengthens against the $. To improve exports the Swiss Franc Dec 2010 1.24 to 1.35 against the Euro by year end. The EU is suggesting the Franc revert to Euros.
22. AMAZON takes the cloud lead
23. Scotland.-Policy error more risky than oil for Scottish policy makers
24. NOKIA downgraded – Debt rating to A- from A: Standard & Poor (S&P;) (Stock down by 46% in past 12 months) . Outlook stable. Struggling to take back market share with the likes of Google & Apple
25. Apollo Global raises $565 million.29.8 million shares sold at $19. Founded by Leon Black in 1990. 57% assets dedicated to private equity & buyout. Blackstone, KKR & Fortress shareholding. ( Follow)
26. Charles Wyplosz interview on Portugal & EU: Spain next in line after Portugal. Belgium & Italy next in line and France down the line. ECB was not meant to be buying public debt. Should ECB follow up with more instalments , it will be insane!! ( Please note interview)
27. Danish bank mergers on hold with property blues
28. Dubai economy may grow 6% in 2011 with infrastructure spending
29. US stock index futures rise, yen decline
30. US- real estate collapse catches up with US
31. UK- Lloyds of London profits down 44% after earthquakes
32. OIL- Deutsche Bank raise price outlook
33. Rajaratnum Web & Adam Smith Testimony today –Insider trading at Goldman Sachs
34. US. Rush for deals make takeovers the most expensive since Lehman. Elizabeth Warren vs Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan) ‘race for the bottom’ and US Regulations.
35. Russia. World Bank says Russia may miss inflation target this year. Growth to low!
36. DJIA seen as safe haven. Traders shrug off negative news
37. US Takeovers , M& A the biggest since Lehman 2007
38. US optimism amongst US CEO`s highest since pre-slump
39. US- only Fed insures inflation
40. US: Obama confronts supply shock. OIL
41. US Companies added 201000 jobs as employment increases
42. Tim Keene: US Housing slump. Unreal home supply, no-where near 04/05. Long way to go with a double dip in housing. Involves tax credit implementation that has now expired.
43. Milan. 4 banks credit default swaps case broke UK rules!! (follow)
44. See rare Iran report CBS on ‘The Extinction Protocol’ web site and potential for Middle Eastern/ N African contagion.
45. Follow environmental change on a daily report card on Extinction protocol for the ; Black Swan” going forward in 2011.