May 2011
1 May 2011 (Monday)
1. SA labour Day
2-3 May 2011
1. Announcement that Bin laden has been killed & body disposed over the Atlantic. A photo of Bin laden face is released early A.M on Sky TV News who advise a few hours later that the photo is a fraud and provides evidence that Bin laden face was super- imposed on another dead terrorist. The photo is withdrawn from Media later in the day.
2. Obama confirms that the decision to capture/ kill Bin laden was made Thursday 27 April 11 & covert mission implemented Sunday 30 April 2011. At first it is suggested that bin laden was requested to surrender and later resisted arrest. Today , Bin laden daughter advises that Bin laden was unarmed. The controversy continues while the US Administration decides to release photo.
3. Kaddafi youngest son is killed with other family members.
18 May 2011
1. Moody`s downgrades 4 of Australia biggest banks on a need for foreign funding ( ANZ & Westpac) ( AA2)
2. Irish fate in Greek hands as debt rescheduled
3. Billionaire Burmans Dabur sees Africa as epicentre for earnings growth
4. Barrick to face regulator probe after Equinox acquisition in Zambia NB
5. US Reaches DEBT CEILING at $14.29 Trillion of the current limit of $14.3 Trillion. Geitner suggests that he has contingency plans to move existing funds around to avoid default until 2 August 2011. PIMCO, Mohammed Elrian advises that if the ceiling is not lifted the mitigation to the entire monetary system unprecedented.
6. IMF Chief Straus indicted on sex molestation charges
23 May 2011 (Monday)
1. S& P cuts Italy credit outlook to a negative and downgrades Italy. 10 yr 4.83%. Italy rating fuels contagion risk as Greece crisis deepens
2. Spain-austerity backlash with high unemployment. Socialist’s election defeat.
3. Merkel loses support in elections. German sentiment against EU bailouts
4. European stocks sink, against default risk, Santander& Commerzbank slide
5. IMF- Lagarde`s leadership role to follow.
6. Euro sinks to record low against Franc ( Suisse), global stocks drop,
7. Spain`s governing party trounced in elections, due to austerity measurers
8. Rand weakens against the $ with EU debt concerns
9. SA equities decline to a 2 month low on EU debt concerns
10. See Niall Ferguson interview Bloomberg, on EU sovereign debt crisis. The Greek Debt is simply too large!! Greece fends off restructuring speculation! Default by Greece to be disorderly, an EU for that matter. Berlin is complacent as Germans stand alone. See the potential of a 2008 contagion in Europe with global consequences
11. Food supply concerns & rising costs continue unabated
12. Egypt to sell $1billion in Eurobonds this year. Tourism is down by over 50%
13. PIMCO prepares European Fund to buy banks convertible bonds
14. Lithuanian
15. Debt woes hammer Euro and global equities
16. US. Needs more than political promises – David Walker on debt ceiling
17. Gold rises to a two week high
18. Belgium also under the S&P; negative watch for a downgrade.
19. Summary: Apart from the US debt ceiling $14.3 trillion stress , the multiplier effect for default is environmental change. Greece debt is almost at Junk Bond status, and with EU assurances of privatization to meet $45 billion, the banks in Italy & Spain have to adjust balance sheets with Greece default to meet EU requirements. The run today. Is if Greek Bonds would be devalued by say 50%, requiring other EU banks to raise current limits. That puts Italy & Spain on notice, sending the markets in free fall. The EU is blamed for complacency, but the bottom line is unemployment & rising costs have resulted in social revolutions. The Socialist Party lost in Spain, and Portugal still has to put in a new government. IMF Straus was pivotal to the restructuring, which required decisions today , not weeks away. His incarceration & IMF leadership is central to the appointment of a new CEO.
20. Europe worsening debt crisis, comes with a lower oil price, as sustainability to meet GDP targets to meet debt are outweighed by rising Bond yields make the resolution unsustainable. IE Debt repayments vs growth %.
21. The commodities sell off, is as a result of EU Debt woes, yet the $ is stronger comparatively. Gold & OIL rule going forward, and the trend to hold commodities are over!!!!
26 May 2011
1. US – Secret funding program uncovered between Federal Reserve & Goldman that neither Congress nor Goldman shareholders knew about. Billions were lent to Goldman at the height of the financial crisis at 100th of a percent. CS , RBS & Goldman ( $45, 45 & 30 billion respectively)
2. HSBC & Goldman held $335 million of Libyan funds
3. Ratko Mladic arrested ( Serbian General indicted on war crimes 1995)
4. G8 Summit France
30 May 2011
1. Mobius –fresh financial crisis around the corner amid volatile derivatives
2. Rand weakens amid Greek debt default
3. Euro weakens on concerns of Greek Bailout
4. Egypt to conclude a $3 billion loan from IMF by 5 June 2011
5. Putin election silence spurs $30 billion exit as BRICS gain
6. Merkel to scrap all nuclear power plants by 2022
7. FIFA fraud & corruption allegations. Blatter responds by tap dancing asking journalist respect & gratitude. Elegance is also an attitude!! Journalist go for the jugular
31 May 2011
1. SA monthly budget deficit $3.7 billion in April
2. SA economy expanded faster than expected in Q1 by 4.8%
3. Japan faces debt downgrading as unemployment rises (S & P Sovereign Debt grading downgrade). Tax increases likely