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May 22, 2026 theconv

Cuba needs a long‑term solution to its energy crisis

Luisa Blanco, Pepperdine University; Institute for Humane Studies and Isabella Elias, Pepperdine University nber

Luisa Blanco is an economist specializing in economic development and international economics, with a focus on the Latin American region. Dr. Blanco research interests pertain to the wellbeing of Latin Americans at home and abroad. At Pepperdine's School of Public Policy, Blanco teaches the core course on Macroeconomic Policy and other courses related to the economics specialization, such as Global Economics and Latin American Economic Development

Short-term humanitarian aid won’t go far in alleviating Cuba’s long-term energy crisis.

Ge Bai is from Luoyang, China, and serves as a Member on AFPI’s Board of Academic Advisors. Bai is currently a Professor of Accounting at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School and Professor of Health Policy & Management (joint) at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. An expert on health care pricing, policy, and management, Dr. Bai has testified before House Ways and Means Committee, written for the Wall Street Journal, and published her studies in leading academic journals such as the New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA, JAMA Internal Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, and Health Affairs. Her work has been widely featured in ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, Los Angeles Times, NBC, New York Times, NPR, PBS, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and other media outlets and used in government regulations and congressional testimonies. Dr. Bai has received the Johns Hopkins Alumni Association’s Excellence in Teaching Award

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Jeffrey Campbell is from Trenton, Michigan, and serves as a Member on AFPI’s Board of Academic Advisors. Jeffery currently serves as the Frances D. Rasmus and Jerome A. Castellini Professor of Economics at the University of Notre Dame (USA) and as Professor of Macroeconometrics at Tilburg University (NL).  Campbell’s research covers macroeconomics, industrial organization, and econometrics. He also teaches a variety of courses at both universities, ranging from Adam Smith's social thought (for freshmen at Notre Dame) to Time Series Econometrics (for graduate students at Tilburg). Campbell received a Bachelor's degree from the University of Michigan and a Doctoral degree from Northwestern University, both in Economics. 

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NOT NBER?

Dr. Kevin Hassett is from Greenfield, Massachusetts, and serves as Chair of AFPI’s Board of Academic Advisors. He previously served as the 29th Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 through 2019. He also served as Senior Advisor to President Trump to support data-driven decisions in response to the Coronavirus. While working in the Trump White House, Hassett was a key force driving internal and external debate on virtually every economic topic, from taxes and trade, to substance abuse and deregulation. While at the White House, Hassett was the top public spokesperson for the White House on economic policy and the state of economy, appearing regularly on Fox News, Fox Business, CNBC, MSNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, and more. He even was drawn upon at times to run the televised White House press briefings. He served as John McCain's chief economic adviser in the 2000 presidential primaries and an economic adviser to the campaigns of George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election and McCain in the presidential election of 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. Dr. Hassett is currently Vice President of the Lindsey Group, a visiting distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institution, an economic contributor at CNN, and senior advisor to Capital Matters, the economic web site of National Review. Dr. Hassett has a wife, two sons, and two dogs. A noted trash talker on the basketball court, his shots purportedly (by him) always go in.

“All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

GANDALF

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DR. KIRON K. SKINNER

MEMBER, BOARD OF ACADEMIC ADVISORS

Dr. Kiron K. Skinner is from Chicago, Illinois, and serves as a Member of the Board of Academic Advisors at AFPI. She is also the Taube Professor for International Relations and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University’s Institute for Politics and Strategy. Previously, she founded and directed these entities at Carnegie Mellon University: the Center for International Relations and Politics, the Carnegie Mellon University Washington Semester Program, the Institute for Politics and Strategy, and the Institute for Strategic Analysis. Skinner is the W. Glenn Campbell Research Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and a Visiting Fellow at the Heritage Foundation. Skinner was the Director of the Office of Policy Planning at the U.S. Department of State and Senior Advisor to the Secretary of State from September 2018 to August 2019. As Director, she reengaged the Department in red-team exercises on regional conflicts and fostered transatlantic partnerships through numerous strategic dialogues, including the first-ever Policy Planners Summit for NATO, held in April 2019. At various points in the past twenty years, Professor Skinner has served on the US Defense Department’s Defense Policy Board and Defense Business Board, the Chief of Naval Operations’ Executive Panel, the National Academies’ Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, and the National Security Education Board. In U.S. presidential politics, Skinner served as a foreign policy surrogate for the Bush-Cheney 2004 reelection campaign, a senior foreign policy adviser to Speaker Newt Gingrich during his presidential campaign in 2011–12, a foreign policy adviser to Senator Rand Paul during his presidential bid in 2015-16, and a foreign policy surrogate for the Donald J. Trump presidential campaign in 2016. She was also a senior member of the Trump transition team in 2016. Professor Skinner has published extensively in American politics and international relations. Two of her co-edited books on President Ronald Reagan were New York Times best sellers, and one received the Hoover Institution’s Uncommon Book Award. Professor Skinner holds MA and PhD degrees in political science from Harvard University and undergraduate degrees from Spelman College and Sacramento City College. She has an honorary doctor of laws degree from Molloy College, Long Island.

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Lee E. Ohanian is from Santa Barbara, California, and serves as a Member on AFPI’s Board of Academic Advisors. He is a Distinguished Professor of Economics, and Director of the Ettinger Family Program in Macroeconomic Research at UCLA, where he has taught since 1999. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the Associate Director of the Center for the Advanced Study in Economic Efficiency at Arizona State University. Ohanian is an adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and previously has advised other Federal Reserve Banks, Foreign Central Banks, and the National Science Foundation. He has been an economic adviser to state and national political campaigns and has testified to the U.S. Senate and the California State Legislative Assembly. His research, which recently has been discussed in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and other media sources, focuses on economic crises, and has been published widely in several peer-reviewed journals. He is a frequent columnist for the Wall Street Journal, San Francisco Chronicle, and other media. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Rochester.

“Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself.”

MILTON FRIEDMAN

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DR. RICHARD VALENTINE BURKHAUSER

MEMBER, BOARD OF ACADEMIC ADVISORS

Richard V. Burkhauser is from Austin, Texas, and serves as a Member on AFPI’s Board of Academic Advisors. In 2017, Burkhauser became Emeritus Sarah Gibson Blanding Professor of Public Policy in the Department of Policy Analysis and Management at Cornell University. Between September 2017 and May 2019, he served as a Member of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisers. His professional career has focused on how public policies affect the employment and well-being of vulnerable populations. He has published widely in journals of demography, economics, gerontology as well as public policy. He is currently a Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, IZA Research Fellow, and NBER Research Associate. Previously, Burkhauser held tenured Professor positions in the Department of Economics at Vanderbilt University and Syracuse University as well as in the Department of Policy Analysis and Management at Cornell University. In 2010 he was the President of the Association for Public Policy and Management. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago in 1976. Burkhauser served two years in the Peace Corps in Jamacia before entering the Ph.D. program in Economics at the University of Chicago.

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

MARK TWAIN

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Casey B. Mulligan is from Chicago, Illinois, and serves as a Member of the Board of Academic Advisors at AFPI. Casey is a Professor in Economics at the College at the University of Chicago; he received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago in 1993. Previously, he also served as Chief Economist of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and as a visiting professor teaching public economics at Harvard University, Clemson University, and the Irving B. Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago. He is affiliated with the National Bureau of Economic Research, the George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State, and the Population Research Center. Casey has received awards and fellowships from the Manhattan Institute, the National Science Foundation, Wolfram Research, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Smith-Richardson Foundation, and the John M. Olin Foundation. His research covers capital and labor taxation, the gender wage gap, health economics, Social Security, voting and the economics of aging. Mulligan has written widely on discrepancies between economic analysis and conventional wisdom. He wrote: Before You're Hired!, Chicago Price Theory, Side Effects and Complications, The Redistribution Recession, and Parental Priorities and Economic Inequality. He has also written numerous Op-Eds and blog entries for the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Post, the Chicago Tribune, blogsupplyanddemand.com, and other blogs and periodicals. 

https://www.nber.org/

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community."[2] The NBER is well known for providing start and end dates for recessions in the United States.

Many of the Chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisers have been NBER Research Associates, including the former NBER President and Harvard Professor, Martin Feldstein.

The NBER's current President and CEO is Professor James M. Poterba of MIT.

History[

The NBER was founded in 1920. Its first staff economist, director of research, and one of its founders was American economist Wesley Clair Mitchell. He was succeeded by Malcolm C. Rorty in 1922.

The Russian American economist Simon Kuznets, and student of Mitchell, was working at the NBER when the U.S. government recruited him to oversee the production of the first official estimates of national income, published in 1934.

In the early 1940s, Kuznets' work on national income became the basis of official measurements of GNP and other related indices of economic activity.[3] The NBER is currently located in Cambridge, Massachusetts with a branch office in New York City.

Research[

The NBER's research activities are mostly identified by 20 research programs on different subjects and 14 working groups. The research programs are: Aging, Asset Pricing, Behavioral/Macro, Capital Markets and the Economy, Children, Corporate Finance, Development of the American Economy, Economics of Education, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Energy and the Environment, Health Care, Health Economics, Industrial Organization, International Finance and Macroeconomics, International Trade and Investment, Labor Studies, Law and Economics, Monetary Economics, Political Economy, Productivity, and Public Economics.[4] From this research come the NBER's Working Papers.

Conferences[

The NBER convenes over 120 meetings each year at which researchers share and discuss their latest findings and launch new projects. The Summer Institute, a collection of nearly 50 smaller meetings, is held annually in July.[5]

Notable members:

Nobel Laureates:

Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chairmen[

(In Reverse Chronological Order)

Other notable members[

Policy impact[

In one study, the NBER was ranked as the second most influential domestic economic policy think tank (the first was the Brookings Institution).[6]

Recession markers[

The NBER is well known for its start and end dates of US recessions. The NBER uses a broader definition of a recession than commonly appears in the media. A definition of a recession commonly used in the media is two consecutive quarters of a shrinking gross domestic product (GDP). In contrast, the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[7] Business cycle dates are determined by the NBER dating committee under contract with the Department of Commerce. Typically, these dates correspond to peaks and troughs in real GDP, although not always so.[8]

The NBER prefers this method for a variety of reasons. First, they feel by measuring a wide range of economic factors, rather than just GDP, a more accurate assessment of the health of an economy can be gained. For instance, the NBER considers not only the product-side estimates like GDP, but also income-side estimates such as the gross domestic income (GDI). Second, since the NBER wishes to measure the duration of economic expansion and recession at a fine grain, they place emphasis on monthly—rather than quarterly—economic indicators. Finally, by using a looser definition, they can take into account the depth of decline in economic activity. For example, the NBER may declare not a recession simply because of two quarters of very slight negative growth, but rather an economic stagnation.[9] However, they do not precisely define what is meant by "a significant decline", but rather determine if one has existed on a case by case basis after examining their catalogued factors which have no defined grade scale or weighting factors. The subjectivity of the determination has led to criticism and accusations committee members can "play politics" in their determinations.[10]

Though not listed by the NBER, another factor in favor of this alternate definition is that a long term economic contraction may not always have two consecutive quarters of negative growth, as was the case in the recession following the bursting of the dot-com bubble.[9] For example, a repeated sequence of quarters with significant negative growth followed by a quarter of no or slight positive growth would not meet the traditional definition of a recession, even though the nation would be undergoing continuous economic decline.

Announcement of end of 2007–2009 recession[

In September 2010, after a conference call with its Business Cycle Dating Committee, the NBER declared that the Great Recession in the United States had officially ended in 2009 and lasted from December 2007 to June 2009.[11][12] In response, a number of newspapers wrote that the majority of Americans did not believe the recession was over, mainly because they were still struggling and because the country still faced high unemployment.[13][14][15] However, the NBER release had noted that "In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle."[16]

Selected papers[

Can Universal Screening Increase the Representation of Low Income and Minority Students in Gifted Education?[

^[17] The NBER or the National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization, that focuses on examining in great detail economic growth of occurring problems in the U.S. In the article “Can Universal Screening Increase the Representation of Low Income and Minority Students in Gifted Education” by the National Bureau of Economic research, authors David Card and Laura Giuliano believe that low income and minority families are under represented in schools' gifted education courses. The authors address one occurring problem with theses tests: whether or not these minority students are overlooked by the system. Teacher and parent referrals would be acknowledged by comprehensive screening programs being introduced into school districts today. The screening tests that school districts are beginning to implement test students on a variety of characteristics to see whether or not they would qualify and succeed in gifted education programs. One issue that the new screening tests would fix compared to the older referrals is that non-English speaking students are overlooked because of a lack of parental referrals due to language barriers. When these tests were implemented on a small scale the statistics showed an increase in Hispanic students by 130 percent, and the number of black students increased by 80 percent. These statistics indicate that there are little to no consequences for minorities when these tests that are being implemented. In conclusion the authors suggest that the issues found in gifted educational programs can be fixed by comprehensive screenings.

Early Life Environment and Racial Inequality in Education and Earnings in the United States[

^[18] One of the major research themes in the National Bureau of Economic research is sources of inequality. Kenneth Y. Chay, Jonathan Guryan, and Bhashkar Mazumder conducted a study in which they analyzed the substantial gaps in test scores on the AFQT and NAEP tests among black-white cohorts. The National Bureau of Economic Research published an article titled “Early Life Environment and Racial Inequality in Education and Earnings in The United States” to eliminate any possible biases in Chay, Guryan and Mazumders’ previous analysis and address the primary caveats.

The National Bureau of Economic Research uses the term "gains" to reflect improvement in racial convergence. Prior studies have concluded black gains in AFQT and NAEP scores in the early 1980s, black gains in college enrollment in the mid-1980s, and black gains in earnings throughout the 1990s. It is concluded that black gains were centered among cohorts of blacks born in the South during the 1960s and 70s; therefore, not only is the study geographically exclusive, but data is also inconsistent with the contemporary causes in the 1980s and 1990s. These results would rather be indicating that black gains in the 1990s were influenced by the Civil Rights and War on Poverty periods (25–30 years before the 1990s).

With response to the education gap, new findings show that the cross-cohort gains in college enrollment only pertained to blacks born in the South (there were no relative gains for black in the North). New findings also show that gains in relative earnings are limited to blacks born in the 1965 to 1972 cohorts (ages 28–35 in 2002) and show no gains for other age groups. To conclude, the findings of this updated study indicate that racial gains are due primarily in part to birth date and birthplace.

Racial Inequality in the 21st Century[

^[19] The National Bureau of Economic Research analyzed the hindrances in quality of education of black and Hispanic students compared to the education of white students, the causes for black students to fall behind in the classroom faster than white students, as well as the attempts to fix these gaps in education between races. The most common factors contributing to racial gaps are thought to be “discrimination, culture, and genetics,” among others. The first study in the article concluded that the best way to eliminate racial inequality in the future, specifically with income inequality, would be to provide black and white students with the same skills. The next study indicates that white children show a higher level of education than black students as young as two years old. Possible explanations for this are that the older children are tested differently than younger children, which could have more to do with what the child has observed throughout the years than what they are innately capable of, that there are racial differences in the rates in which children develop, and that genes and environmental influences also come into play.

The third study demonstrates that the inherent deviation in education in children before they enter school depends on their parental environment. Similarly, the fourth study concludes that intervention programs before children enter schools still need much work and are beneficial in some ways, but ultimately do not close the gap in education between black and white students. The fifth study looks at children from kindergarten to 12th grade, finding that there is an education gap present, but it is not clear where it is most present. However, the next study about exclusively high school students shows that eighth grade test scores specifically play a key role in the growing gap between high school students and their graduation rates. The seventh study analyzes the effect of intervention programs on students once they have entered school, and indicates that improvement within schools and teaching alone can positively affect the achievement of black students and make them more comparable to that of white students. The entire NBER article ultimately concludes that we still do not know how to close the achievement gap because of the present color line, but there are certainly ways to increase individual student achievement that may eventually make schools more productive overall.

Public Universities, Equal Opportunity, and the Legacy of Jim Crow: Evidence from North Carolina:

^[20] This study is a part of the NBER Working Paper Series, meaning it does not undergo the same peer and NBER board review as their regular research. Using data from the University of North Carolina system, which encompasses all public colleges in the state, the study looks at racial inequality at the collegiate level in regards to enrollment, completion, and various achievements, and the causation of such inequity. The study also mentions historically black colleges in North Carolina, and briefly questions whether they remain a positive contribution in contemporary America, arguing that they were a reaction to Jim Crow laws and tend to isolate African-American students from other racial groups.

Controlling for test scores, majors, and other scholastic factors, the study looks at administrative data from North Carolina K–12 public schools of eighth graders both in 1999 and 2004, categorized both by race and socioeconomic standing. It then tracks these students through their expected graduation dates of both high school and college, given they continued to a North Carolina university, and they examined whatever racial stratification occurred within those time periods based on enrollment and graduation rates at each university.

The study found that African-Americans in the North Carolina public school system are greatly disadvantaged. In one group, controlling for gender, the study found that, of the 2004 eighth graders, African-American students were 4.6% less likely to attend a North Carolina university than their white peers, and “5.5 percentage points less likely to enroll and graduate within four years.” However, when controlling for parental higher education and eighth grade tests scores, the study found that African-American students of the aforementioned grouping are more likely to attend and graduate within four years from a North Carolina university, which the study attributes to the abundance of historically black colleges in the state.

References

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cited by u chic

What We Know and Don't Know about Climate Change,and ...https://www.nber.org › papers

by RS Pindyck

There is a lot we know about climate change, but there is also a lot we don't know. Even if we knew how much CO2 will be emitted over the coming decades, we wouldn't know how much temperatures will rise as a result. And even if we could predict the extent of warming that will occur, we can say very little about its impact. I explain that we face considerable uncertainty over climate change and its impact, why there is so much uncertainty, and why we will continue to face uncertainty in the near future. I also explain the policy implications of climate change uncertainty. 

First, the uncertainty (particularly over the possibility of a catastrophic climate outcome) creates insurance value, which pushes us to earlier and stronger actions to reduce CO2 emissions. 

Second, uncertainty interacts with two kinds of irreversibilities. First, CO2 remains in the atmosphere for centuries, making the environmental damage from CO2 emissions irreversible, pushing us to earlier and stronger actions. 

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Second, reducing CO2 emissions requires sunk costs, i.e., irreversible expenditures, which pushes us away from earlier actions. Both irreversibilities are inherent in climate policy, but the net effect is ambiguous.

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Scholarly articles for national bureau of economic research nber climate warming energy

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Heather-Boushey-NBER-Climate-remarks-May-20-2021.pdf   https://www.whitehouse.gov › wp-content › uploadsPDF

May 20, 2021 — National Bureau of Economic Research. Environmental and Energy Policy and the ... Over the 20th century, the change in energy use laid the.

5 pages

Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy: Vol 2https://www.journals.uchicago.edu › toc › eepe › current

Sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ... What We Know and Don't Know about Climate Change, and Implications for Policy.

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