2016elect

==name change zombie tag

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</div><div><h4 class="yiv0371813773null" style="-webkit-padding-start: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(128, 128, 128); line-height: 20px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">The price of winning just got higher, especially in the Senate</h4> This election cycle, an average winning Senate candidate had spent $10.4 million through Oct. 19 (reflecting the latest reports filed with the Federal Election Commission). That’s a <a rel="nofollow" target="blank" href="http://opensecrets.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aa7cf182bf7041258bb250f9d&id=99242ed5d3&e=44dfb36771" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1478969258143_59966" style="-webkit-padding-start: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(62, 114, 181); outline: none; word-wrap: break-word;">$1.8 million increase</a> over the same period in the 2014 cycle. By the end of last cycle, the number rose to $10.6 million, and a similar uptick is expected this time once post-election and year-end reports are filed. ...<a rel="nofollow" target="blank" href="http://opensecrets.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aa7cf182bf7041258bb250f9d&id=fc7dfdff7c&e=44dfb36771" style="-webkit-padding-start: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(62, 114, 181); outline: none; word-wrap: break-word;"> </a><a rel="nofollow" target="blank" href="http://opensecrets.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aa7cf182bf7041258bb250f9d&id=51080ba4e6&e=44dfb36771" style="-webkit-padding-start: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(62, 114, 181); outline: none; word-wrap: break-word;">read more.</a></div><div>---</div><div>Setting a new record and driving much of the <a rel="nofollow" target="blank" href="http://opensecrets.us2.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=aa7cf182bf7041258bb250f9d&id=585f772934&e=44dfb36771" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1478969258143_60081" style="-webkit-padding-start: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(62, 114, 181); outline: none; word-wrap: break-word;">higher cost</a> of this year’s elections over 2012’s, outside groups that weren’t formally connected to either political party broke $1.4 billion in outlays in the 2016 cycle. That’s <a rel="nofollow" target="blank" href="http://opensecrets.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=aa7cf182bf7041258bb250f9d&id=589f21365e&e=44dfb36771" style="-webkit-padding-start: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(62, 114, 181); outline: none; word-wrap: break-word;">up from the $1 billion</a> these groups — mostly super PACs and 501(c) organizations — spent in 2012, and way up from the $338 million spent in 2008. ...<a rel="nofollow" target="blank" href="http://opensecrets.us2.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=aa7cf182bf7041258bb250f9d&id=b5f96c0b91&e=44dfb36771" style="-webkit-padding-start: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(62, 114, 181); outline: none; word-wrap: break-word;"> </a><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://opensecrets.us2.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=aa7cf182bf7041258bb250f9d&id=9f8d91a2cc&e=44dfb36771" style="-webkit-padding-start: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(62, 114, 181); outline: none; word-wrap: break-word;">read more.</a></div><div>
</div>lakoff on trmp
<a href="http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/understanding-trump">http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/understanding-trump</a>senate
<a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-2016-the-democrats-strike-back/">http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-2016-the-democrats-strike-back/</a>=matrix:  <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/10/ultimate-climate-candidate-matrix">http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/10/ultimate-climate-candidate-matrix</a>

<a href="http://insideclimatenews.org/news/07082015/climate-remains-non-issue-gop-primary-season">http://insideclimatenews.org/news/07082015/climate-remains-non-issue-gop-primary-season</a>

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also <a href="http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/04/06/carly-fiorina-on-the-calif-crisis-thats-a-classic-case-of-liberals-being-willing-to-sacrifice-other-peoples-lives-and-livelihoods/" target="_blank" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">blamed the drought in California</a> on “liberal environmentalists,” saying they “prevented the building of a single new reservoir or a single new water conveyance system over decades during a period in which California’s population has doubled.” She called it a “classic case of liberals being willing to sacrifice other people’s lives and livelihoods at the altar of their ideology.” She didn’t explain where the water for the reservoirs or conveyance systems was going to come from.

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<figcaption id="figcaption_attachment_362016" class="wp-caption-text" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0.1875rem 0.4375rem; line-height: 18.2px;">Brilliant neurosurgeon Ben Carson waffles on climate change to try to avoid angering GOP voters.</figcaption>

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While his record shows that Ben Carson was a brilliant, widely respected doctor, he’s <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/election/2015/05/04/3646780/ben-carson-announcement/" target="_blank" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">expressed some of the most radical and reality-defying positions</a> on issues of any candidate—virtually a requirement for an African-American in the Republican party. He doesn’t believe in evolution, thinks being gay is a choice and has called the Affordable Care Act “the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery.”

On climate, Carson has <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-26/ben-carson-not-convinced-on-global-warming" target="blank" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">mostly dodged the issue</a>. “We may be warming, we may be cooling,” he said. “There’s always going to be warming or cooling going on.” But he’s also said, “Our Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should be told to work in conjunction with business, industry and universities to find the most eco-friendly ways of developing our energy resources.” That separates him from some Republicans who think the EPA should be rendered entirely impotent or even <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/240826-gop-rep-introduces-bill-to-gut-epa" target="blank" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">eliminated</a>. On the other hand, he says the <a href="http://ecowatch.com/news/energy-news/keystone-xl-pipeline-2/" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">Keystone XL pipeline</a> “is perfectly safe, so I can’t really see a good reason not to do it.”

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The belief that climate change is not caused by human activity is so deeply held among conservative Republicans it might as well be added to the list that includes God, guns and the flag. This poses a tricky problem for GOP presidential candidates.

The trouble rests in two yawning gaps regarding attitudes on the climate issue: one between conservative Republicans and the rest of the Republican party, and another between conservative Republicans and the rest of American voters.

In order to secure the GOP nomination, candidates must have the support of the conservative Republican bloc, which comes out in droves for the primary elections. GOP primaries—in an awesome display of the party's <a href="http://www.forwardprogressives.com/a-new-poll-shows-the-gops-amazing-lack-of-diversity/" target="blank" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">dismal lack of diversity</a> [3]—are decided by older, white Americans who make up the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/21/opinion/edsall-the-great-white-hope.html" target="blank" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">most conservative bloc</a> [4] in the party. And they are staunchly in the climate denial camp.

A recent Gallup poll found that 40 percent of conservative Republicans believe that the effects of <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/182807/conservative-republicans-alone-global-warming-timing.aspx" target="_blank" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">global warming</a> [5] will never happen. That stands in stark difference to other political identities. By contrast, only 16 percent of moderate/liberal Republicans, 14 percent of non-leaning independents, 5 percent of conservative/moderate Democrats and 3 percent of liberal Democrats say the same. In addition, conservative Republicans are the only group in which a clear majority (70 percent) believe global warming isn't manmade, but due to natural causes. By contrast, 47 percent of moderate/liberal Republicans agree that is the case.

A poll conducted by NBC News and Marist College in February found an overwhelming majority of Republican primary voters in early-nominating states (97 percent in Iowa and 96 percent in both South Carolina and New Hampshire) regard "a candidate who believes climate change is man-made and action should be taken to combat it" as either <a href="http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/iowa_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf" target="_blank" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">"mostly" or "totally" unacceptable</a> [6].

All this means that GOP candidates are fearful of challenging the belief that climate change is not caused by human activity—and that the government should not take action to fight it. The eventual nominee is going to have to backpedal in the general election because the <a href="http://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-polling-the-american-public-on-climate-change-2014" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">majority of Americans</a> [7] do believe climate change is caused by human actions, with more than 4 out of 10 Americans saying global warming poses an "imminent threat," and that the government should do something about it.

This is a conundrum all of the GOP presidential candidates must face going into the primaries, and for the eventual nominee, dampening his anti-climate rhetoric going into the general election.

A solid majority of Americans—two thirds overall, including <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/01/29/us/global-warming-poll.html" target="_blank" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">almost half of Republicans</a> [8]—say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who promises to do something to fight climate change, according to a poll conducted by the New York Times, Stanford University and Resources for the Future. The poll also found that almost 8 out of 10 Americans believe the federal government should limit greenhouse gas emissions. And complicating things for Republican congressmembers Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio, who are running for president, 64 percent of Americans have little or no trust in the things Republicans on the Hill say about global warming.

“What do they do? They scream, ‘You’re a denier.’ They brand you a heretic. Today, the global warming alarmists are the <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/ted-cruz-climate-change-believers-are-the-new-flat-earthers" target="_blank" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">equivalent of the flat-Earthers</a> [9],” Ted Cruz said in an interview in March. “It used to be [that] it is accepted scientific wisdom the Earth is flat, and this heretic named Galileo was branded a denier.”

'The government can’t change the weather," said Marco Rubio, an outspoken climate denier, in 2013. 'We can pass a bunch of laws that will destroy our economy, but it isn’t going to change the weather." Last month, he solidified his stance: "I believe the climate is changing because there has never been a moment when the climate is not changing,”

Perhaps Rand Paul really does beileve in man-caused climate change—or he has figured out the electoral calculus that he needs to win: He has started to suggest that he supports action to cut air pollution and believes that greenhouse gas emissions due to human activity are <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/twenty-sixteen/rand-paul-s-risky-bet-on-climate-change-20150212" target="_blank" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">contributing to climate change</a> [10].

In addition, if he wants to appeal to young Republicans, the eventual GOP candidate risks alienating the conservative primary voters during the general election: A 2014 poll conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News found that <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/19/the-polls-are-clear-younger-republicans-support-action-on-climate-change/" target="_blank" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">young Republicans</a> [11] age 18-49 believe that the federal government should limit the release of greenhouse gases, even if it means raising their monthly energy expenses by $20 a month.

It will be interesting to see how the GOP candidates shape their climate change positions to attract the conservative voting bloc going into the primaries—and how the eventual nominee will change his tune in a play for the center going into the general election against a Democratic nominee who will most surely be a strong advocate of climate change action. Tackling climate change is a <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/election/2015/04/12/3646143/important-tweet-hillarys-announcement-everyone-pretty-much-ignored/" target="_blank" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">top of the agenda</a> [12] item for Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee. And while Jeb Bush may be the putative GOP establishment candidate, there is no clear frontrunner in the Republican contest.

The winner of the GOP nomination will probably be a climate change denier, or at least, like Mr. Bush, a skeptic (though the former Florida governor recently acknowledged he's "<a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/239210-jeb-bush-concerned-about-climate-change" target="_blank" style=" color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">concerned</a> [13]" about climate change). But can a climate denier win the White House?

Reynard Loki is AlterNet's environment editor.

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<div>http://ecowatch.com/2015/03/26/climate-denying-republicans-run-president</div>

<div>...Guessing who might be a frontrunner a year from now—or even a month from now—in such a crowded field is a thankless game, especially with no formal announcements. But former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is collecting money hand over fist, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Brown attracted some favorable attention at a recent summit in the key primary state of Iowa, and both former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and ex-Texas Gov. Rick Perry have made it obvious they’d be open to a second run (both were candidates in 2012).</div>

There’s also New Jersey <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2015/03/15/jon-stewart-gov-christie-exxon-settlement/" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">Gov. Chris Christie</a>, once considered an easy frontrunner but now damaged by home-state scandals. There’s Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and for those hungry for a new name to specular about, Ohio Gov. John Kasich who’s indicated his openness to a run by traveling to another critical primary state, New Hampshire, when he should be back home doing something about his state’s lagging economy.

Assessing the climate positions of so many candidates isn’t as hard as you’d think—virtually all are <a href="http://ecowatch.com/?s=climate+deniers" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">climate deniers</a>, although many haven’t made it a major cornerstone of their public utterances. And there’s good reason: with the fossil fuel multibillionaire Koch Brothers <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/koch-backed-network-aims-to-spend-nearly-1-billion-on-2016-elections/2015/01/26/77a44654-a513-11e4-a06b-9df2002b86a0_story.html" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">having vowed to spend close to a billion dollars</a> putting a Republican in the White House in 2016, all the candidates are eying that cash covetously. And the attached string is having positions that are unwaveringly anti-environmental and pro unlimited fossil fuel development.

So we saw Monday when Cruz announced that he touted oil and gas development as a cornerstone of his campaign. But he’s not the only one.

Bush <a href="http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1125824355001" target="_blank" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">said in an interview</a> in 2011, “It is not unanimous among scientists that [climate change] is disproportionately manmade. What I get a little tired of on the left is this idea that somehow science has decided all this so you can’t have a view.”

Yet one of his backers is pushing him to separate himself from the deniers, <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/02/26/wealthy-jeb-bush-supporter-aims-to-push-him-to-combat-climate-change/" target="_blank" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">according to theWall Street Journal</a>. Andrew Sabin, who owns a precious-metals refining business, told the paper, “I want him to be the next Teddy Roosevelt. We want to show that conservation is conservative and get Republicans back to their environmental roots without hurting jobs.”

In response, a Bush spokesperson said, “He believes the climate is changing but research is less conclusive on the extent to which humans contribute,” Ms. Campbell said. “He does not believe alarmist, far-left environmental policies are the answer.”

Walker has been getting heat in the last few days as it’s <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/politics/wisconsin-gov-scott-walker-photo-charlie-114429739886.html" target="_blank" style=" box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(67, 146, 65); transition: color 0.2s linear; -webkit-transition: color 0.2s linear; background: transparent;">come out during an ongoing probe</a> of his private emails that he received $1.5 million in “dark” money from billionaire John Menard Jr. One of Menard’s top priorities was reining in enforcement by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources such as the $1.7 million in fines against both Menard and his company for violating state environmental laws, and the Walker administration has obliged....

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