Arbuthnot, John
Achievements: Founded Scriblerus Club. Created “John Bull.”
Born: April 29, 1667; Inverbervie, Kincardineshire, Scotland
Died: February 27, 1735; London, England (Aged 67)
Field & Discipline: Mathematics; Literature; Medicine; Statistician; Political Satirist; Doctor
Language: English
Education: Marischal College, Aberdeen; Oxford University; University of St. Andrews
Major Work:
"An Argument for Divine Providence, Taken From the Constant Regularity Observ'd in the Birth of Both Sexes"
"The History of John Bull"
Life & Times:
In his early 20s, Arbuthnot became interested in mathematical theories of chance, and in 1692 translated Dutch physicist [translated work of] Christiaan Huyghens*'s paper on probability, "Of the Laws of Chance" (1657), making it the first work on probability to appear in English.
In 1691, Arbuthnot moved to London, where he taught mathematics for three years, then entered Oxford University as the companion of one of his pupils, Edward Jeffreys, son of a Member of Parliament. Arbuthnot studied medicine, then moved to the University of St. Andrews, Scotland, where he got his medical degree in 1696. In 1697, he set up a practice in London, but still kept up his interest in mathematics. In 1701, he published "An Essay on the Usefulness of Mathematical Learning", in which he set out the moral and intellectual benefits resulting from the study of mathematics.
In 1704, Arbuthnot was elected to the Royal Society, and in 1705 (because of a chance service to the visiting Prince George of Denmark) was appointed physician to Queen Anne. In 1707 he dedicated a work on ancient coins to Prince George. In 1709, he gradually entered fashionable and intellectual London society. With a reputation as an expert mathematician and natural scientist, he was elected a fellow of the Royal College of Physicians.
In 1710, Arbuthnot's short but ground-breaking paper, "An Argument for Divine Providence, Taken From the Constant Regularity Observ'd in the Birth of Both Sexes", appeared in the Royal Society's "Philosophical Transactions". It endeavored to prove that Providence, not chance, governed the birth ratio: providing 105 male babies born for every 100 females.
He presented data on christenings in London for 82 years, showing that in every year from 1629 to 1710, more males were christened in London than females. He said it was like tossing a coin 82 times and having it come up heads each time. Therefore, Arbuthnot concluded, it is impossible that chance rules the boy-girl birth ratio, and it must be Providence. He even offered an explanation, saying the five-baby difference was to make up for the greater proportion of boys who die in external accidents.
Arbuthnot's argument was the first known example of a mathematical statistical inference and was, in fact, the ancestor of modern statistical reasoning. The work drew the attention of many scientists on the Continent, including Dutch physicist [influenced] ’sGravesande* (and later [influenced] Daniel Bernoulli*, who in 1732 made use of Arbuthnot's theory to show that chance could not explain the fact that planetary orbits are only slightly inclined to the ecliptic).
Around this time, Arbuthnot met satirist [a pal of] Swift*, who introduced him to [a pal of] Pope* and other literary figures. In 1712, Arbuthnot published his first political satire, "The History of John Bull", consisting of five pamphlets. His John Bull character (an honest clothier) became the conventional personification of the English personality. The book was written in support of the Tories' war policy, (whose major proponent, Robert Harley, Earl of Oxford, was one of Arbuthnot's friends,) and satirized the international political jockeying that led to the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht.
In 1711, Arbuthnot was given a lucrative job in customs, and in 1713 was appointed physician to Chelsea Hospital. Also in 1713, Arbuthnot helped form the famous Scriblerus Club, a small group of Tory satirists that included Swift, Pope, [a pal of] John Gay*, Thomas Parnell and Harley.
Arbuthnot was a chief contributor to the "Memoirs of Martinus Scriblerus", a mocking exposure of pedantry, largely written during 1713-14 but not published until 1741. The Club, however, was short-lived. After the death in 1714 of Queen Anne and the accession of George I, the Tories lost their hold on the government and Arbuthnot lost his place at court. He went to France for a year, resuming his medical practice in London in 1715. Despite losing his place at Court, he kept his fashionable patients, including playwright [a patient was] William Congreve*.
In 1717, with Gay and Pope, Arbuthnot composed and produced "Three Hours of Marriage", a farce that ridiculed actor/theater manager [ridiculed] Cibber*, but the play failed miserably.
In the early 1720s, Arbuthnot was on the Royal Society committee (led by [worked with] Newton*) that oversaw the publication of [helped publish] John Flamsteed's "History of the sky of Britain", a three-volume account of astronomical observations, published in 1725. Arbuthnot was also a member of the committee that investigated the calculus controversy raging between Newton and Leibniz (i.e. who developed it first?) and published an attack on [attacked] Leibniz* written by Newton.
Extra Connections: He was at the deathbed of his friend the mathematician David [at deathbed of pal] Gregory*
His work related to that of [work related to] Blumenbach*
Encouraged writing of [encouraged] Lady Mary Wortley Montagu*
Knew [knew] Berkeley*
Was consulted by [consulted by] Hume*
Assessment: Noted mathematician, natural scientist and physician, but best remembered as a wit and satirist
Oneliner: John Arbuthnot, early statistician and satirist
Bibliography:
- Encyclopedia Britannica.
- Dictionary of Scientific Biography.
- Dictionary of National Biography.
- Beattie, Lester M.,John Arbuthnot: Mathematician and Satirist ,Harvard University Press: Cambridge, 1935.
Father: Alexander Arbuthnott
Mother: Unknown
Siblings: Eight, of whom: Ann
Spouse: Name unknown
Children: Four of 10 survived infancy, of whom: Charles; George; Anne